S&P Hits 4500 Record High, Breadth Flashes "Extreme Fear" Signals

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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Aug 25, 2021 - 12:39 PM

The S&P 500 has surged off last week's lows to break above 4,500 for the first time ever today...

On the heels of another massive short-squeeze...

What is 'odd' about this pre-J-Hole euphoric move in stocks is that investors remain full of "fear"...

Source: CNN

Thanks to serious weakness in 'breadth'...

Source: CNN

As Nomura's Charlie McElligoot warns, the same go-forward “risks” apply to Equities w.r.t.

1) “broken vol mkt supply / demand” (particularly Dealers long local / ATM Gamma vs short downside Vega)

2) “extreme exposure” positioning risk from vol-sensitive strategies—where only a negligible move higher in rVol can trigger a very significant $ de-allocation from Equities

3) Net $Delta in both SPX and QQQ’s becoming a large destabilizing flow risk into a down move as well

There is a “real” risk of a local pullback with negative excess returns in the near-term, most notably in QQQ / NDX, but particularly, when both occurring in unison—with some jarring #’s.

Will Powell deliver?