Britain’s crippled economy suffered its biggest crash in economic output in 311 years after it slumped by 9.9%. Last year’s fall in output was the biggest since modern official records began after World War Two. Longer-running historical data hosted by the Bank of England suggest it was the biggest drop since 1709, when Britain suffered a “Great Frost”.
The GDP fall was steeper than almost any other big economy’s, though Spain - also hard-hit by the virus - suffered an 11% decline. It also means that the market cap of AAPL is now roughly equivalent to the entire output of the UK.
The good news is that the UK avoided heading back towards recession at the end of the year, with stronger than expected Q4 and December GDP prints, and looks on course for a recovery in 2021. In Q4, GDP grew 1.0%, double consensus estimates of 0.5%. This makes it likely that Britain will escape two straight quarters of contraction - the standard definition of recession in Europe - even though the economy is set to shrink in early 2021 due to the effects of a third COVID lockdown.
“As and when restrictions are eased, we continue to expect a vigorous rebound in the economy,” said Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Global Wealth Management
In December alone, Britain’s economy grew 1.2% after a 2.3% fall in output in November when there was a partial lockdown, pointing to greater resilience to COVID restrictions than at the start of the pandemic. That left output 6.3% lower than in February before the start of the pandemic, the Office for National Statistics said.
However, the Bank of England forecasts the economy will shrink by 4% in the first three months of 2021 because of the new lockdown and Brexit disruption. It thinks it will take until early 2022 before GDP regains its pre-COVID size, assuming vaccination continues at the current rapid pace, which outstrips the rest of Europe’s. Many economists think recovery will take longer.
“Today’s figures show that the economy has experienced a serious shock as a result of the pandemic, which has been felt by countries around the world,” finance minister Rishi Sunak said.
Sunak, facing the heaviest borrowing since World War Two, said he would continue to focus on protecting jobs when he sets out a new annual budget on March 3. Unemployment has risen much less than feared at the start of the crisis, largely due to subsidies to keep people in work, though sectors such as hospitality and high-street retail remain hard hit.
Some of the damage reflects how Britain’s economy relies more on face-to-face consumer services than other countries, as well as disruption to schooling and routine healthcare, which few other countries factored in to GDP. Sunak, in an interview with Sky News, said Britain’s economic performance could be seen as being marginally above that of some of its peers last year.