"Some emerging information could quickly turn into trends on two key US policy debates. This would give investors some unexpected, and underpriced, clarity." - Morgan Stanley
This dynamic will persist, until there are consequences. Which will first be felt in the markets, then reverberate through the economy, and circle back to our political parties. And when such dynamics reverse, they do so fast, ferociously.
"..we are going to spend a boatload of money. They are going to spend it a little differently and on different priorities, but they are going to spend a boatload of money. They are politicians, and they can’t help it..."
When a central bank feels compelled to tighten monetary policy to stabilize a currency and tame inflation (particularly in instances when weak economic activity instead necessitates policy accommodation), it is often a last resort measure.
"We are likely to see some downward pressure in equity markets in Q4 2021, i.e., in a year’s time. Longer term, we see little impact from a prospective capital gains tax rate increase on risk taking and investors’ attitude toward equities as an asset class."
...in addition to M-1 and M-2, there are tens of trillions of dollars held outside the US that will come home to roost if we have the Misesian “Crack-Up Boom”
As Gen Z teenagers move towards adulthood and represent a larger portion of consumer spending, a lot of attention is paid to their habits and preferences when it comes to spending.
Sizable percentages of U.S. adults see major problems with voting in the coming elections, but these views vary: Republicans are more concerned about issues of voter fraud, and Democrats are more concerned about eligible voters being kept out of the voting process.
