The combination of a stimulus stalemate, Tyrannical responses to a renewed COVID case wave (note the death rate remains flat), and the fading hopes for a 'blue wave' are all triple-whammying market optimism.
A "bear" case which results in an exponential surge in new cases would almost certainly lead to another economic shutdown, especially under a Biden presidency.
"An orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900).... A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term..."
While these restrictions are not yet as tight as in spring, the latest set of data has already revealed that the pace of economic recovery in services has started to lose momentum...
It's another very busy week, including the peak of earnings season as 184 S&P 500 companies report; we also get several central bank announcements and what will likely be a record GDP print in the US.
"The decreasing likelihood of U.S. fiscal stimulus pre-election, possibly even pre year-end, as well as worsening virus numbers and increasing lockdown measures all seem to be taking the shine of what was a rather complacent market view of the outlook."
"Mechanically, the market cap of bitcoin would have to rise 10 times from here to match the total private sector investment to gold via ETFs or bars and coins."
While both Trump and Biden want to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, their approaches are radically different. Trump wants to grow the economy by reducing taxes and regulation, whereas Biden seeks to achieve this through increased government spending and investment.
