The market is split in two: the equity options market showed a 54% chance of a upside movement (+2.7%) between Nov. 2 and Nov. 4, and 45% chance of a larger drop (-3%).
"There’s too much retail real estate in the U.S. Retailers continue to reduce their store footprints, and while brick and mortar is here to stay, the focus is on high-quality locations.”
"Take profits on Tech, moving from OW to N.... We continue to believe that Tech fundamentals are supportive, through strong balance sheets, significant buybacks, structural tailwinds and earnings delivery, but the relative outperformance could start waning."
it is impossible for both Emini and 30Y futures traders to be right at the same time, and in a time when the Fed has taken over the bond market and relegated the bond 'smart money' to idiot status, it will be interesting to see just who is right.
"They bought on the rumor Biden was going to win and now they’re selling on the rumor that he’s going to win, because a Biden victory is not good for the stock market..."
For all those wondering why the powers that be - certainly should Biden win the presidency - are rushing to enforce another full-scale lockdown of the economy, the answer is simple: they want to get even richer.
It’s a sad state of affairs... Occidental markets are pricing in QE Infinity, NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) and further stimulus for eternity – and its ultimately unsustainable.
That Facebook and Amazon continue to spend the most on lobbying versus any other company – even jet manufacturer Boeing or defense contractor Lockheed Martin – shows they understand their escalating regulatory headwinds
"We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility around these events -- and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19 situation across much of the U.S., Europe and elsewhere."
Once the link is broken between what the government must collect and what it can spend, who leads the nation is less consequential – at least to stock markets in the near-term.
