"Consensus forecasts S&P 500 EPS will decline by 44% year/year in 2Q, but we believe earnings will fall by 60% in the quarter... Management commentary will prove more valuable than backward-looking results."
The only thing uniting Americans is a belief that China is an adversary. Now Bannon says we’re building a case that Covid was caused by a lab leak. "Trump just chose to double down on a culture war."
So far, the current economic situation, and the governmental response, compares with the run-in to the depression of the 1930s. Yet to come in the repetitious credit cycle is the collapse in financial asset values and a banking crisis.
"Given that younger people will be suffering most from the economic impact of Covid-19 for many years to come, we wonder how history will judge the global response."
Where on the irony-o-meter does one rate an essay that decries the “right-wing myth” of cancel culture by mass-denouncing a gymnasium full of intellectuals as problematic?
"The economy is grinding, slowing down, we’re lurching in and out of Covid, yet the tech market makes new highs every day. That’s a classic speculative bubble."
"...to seek out more information, to question conventional thinking and to continually refine your judgments and understanding that difference between certainty and likelihood can make all the difference..."
Is it sustainable? Or is the bull case which is based on earnings, valuations, debt expansion not mattering, indeed nothing mattering but liquidity the continued path forward?
"The U.S. economy and our financial markets now face a crossroad – they are once again decoupling. The test of economic aspiration and market optimism will come in the years ahead.”