This suggests at two things: i) McConnell will concede to Democratic demands suggesting he won't back Trump in forcefully challenging the election outcome and ii) rumors of the reflation trade's death may have been greatly exaggerated.
The risks are "skewed towards a deterioration in COVID outcomes, an absence of fiscal support, persistent institutional uncertainty and broader negative growth surprises in the US in coming weeks."
The Treasury will raise its long-term refunding debt sales next week to a fresh record $122 billion, to refund approximately $60.9 billion of Treasury notes maturing on November 15, 2020.
"The uncertainties associated with a disputed election were what investors feared the most. Blue-Wave scenarios are now off the table and the probability of gridlock has risen."
The first shock on Election Day didn’t come from the U.S. Rather, it was the news that China suspended Ant Group’s $35 billion initial public offering.
While some states have consistently seen Democrat or Republican victories, other “swing states” have flipped between the two parties depending on the year...
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, to break down the hidden forces driving markets…
Most Americans are hanging on to the hope their candidate in the Presidential election will be victorious. Expect a huge spike in emotions when the reality hits those that are wrong.
The market views the Blue Wave as short-term neutral but long-term negative, as the expected Biden tax policy outweighs the benefits from a larger than expected stimulus package. SPX may have upside to ~3400, but it would have larger downside to ~2,500.
