The QEternity 6 Week Scorecard: C Minus

Equities ended the day modestly green - with S&P futures pushing to VWAP to close the day-session right at Draghi's Dike. Once again we saw early strength fade in US stocks followed by a low volume push up to VWAP which then menadered into the close. This leaves US equities rather notably weak after QEternity and VWAP-fading weakness suggesting the over-crowded net-longs that we recently noted looking for the exits in a STFR style. Among the major asset classes, only Treasuries are green since 9/13 with the USD also up over 1% (helped by this week's 0.5% gain). Nasdaq and Russell are worst followed by the rest of the broad equity indices clustered around -3.25% but Oil's 13% drop is the most significant (even accounting for the historical precedents). Gold and Silver are topping stocks for the year but gold and stocks have hugged one another up and down since Ben hinted at infinity.

Post-QEternity performance for major US equity indices - look at the cluster of Dow, TRAN, and SPX...

 

and across asset classes - the USD is up 1%, Treasuries just in the money, Oil down hard and Gold just inching out equities...

 

S&P sectors are mixed but the year's big winner (Tech) is now the big loser (down 7%) as Healthcare - which has been highly correlated to Obama's odds of an election win over the last 6 weeks - remains the winner post-QEtc...

 

The S&P is holding at Draghi's Dike here once again...

 

Treasuries continued to leak higher in yield - compressing that spread with stocks.

 

Gold and Silver moved higher on the day...

 

...despite a roller coaster day in the USD - which went higher all afternoon...

 

In general, capital structure ETFs (VXX, SPY, HYG, and SPY) all traded perfectly in sync today (left) and so did CONTEXT (our risk asset proxy) during the day-session... but CONTEXT rallied late last night on Treasury weakness into the European open...

 

Some big moves in stocks today - AAPL was weak -1.6% today, NYT -23%, P -18%, and recent IPOs ugly with WDAY -15% in 2 days, RLGY -10% in last week, and FB -10% from pre-open highs yesterday

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: New York Times - needs a bailout? Down 23%!!! on huge volume

and Pandora -18%!! all-time lows...