As most of Asia is on vacation for the lunar new year, UBS' Art Cashin is growing more and more concerned with the excessively bullish tone. While not screaming for an outright short, the venerable volatility-handler fears many factors he sees in the market currently from sentiment to vauation, and a lack of 'rotation', and while the January Effect and the Super-Bowl are in the bulls favor, he gently reminds that the 'Year of the Snake' has typically not been a good one for markets or man...
Via Art Cashin,
Will The January Effect Get Swallowed By The Snake? – The ever-alert Jim Brown, over at Option Investor, notes that the year of the snake is historically the least bullish of the twelve signs in the Asian zodiac. The prior snake (2001) saw a loss of 13.1% after losing 28% at one point. In the snake before that (1989), the S&P did manage a gain of 9.7%, while 1977 saw a loss of 17.5%.
Rick Weissman of Gleacher and Company cited the rather spotty event record for past years of the snake. We saw things like 9/11 (2001), the attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) and the stock market crash (1929).
Super Bowl and January are on the bull's side, while the snake threatens on behalf of the bears.