Goldman Boosts Q2 GDP Forecast Due To Weaker Than Expected Q1 GDP

Today is the day when economists weathermen everywhere jump the shark. Here's Goldman's Jan Hatzius.

BOTTOM LINE: Q1 GDP was revised lower than expected, mainly due to a larger drag from inventories. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected, while continuing claims declined to a new post-recession low. Because of weaker inventory investment in Q1, we increased our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to 3.9%.

 

Main Points:

 

GDP growth in Q1 was revised to -1.0% (vs. consensus -0.5%), from +0.1% initially reported. Almost all of the net revision was due to a larger drag from inventory investment, which contributed -1 percentage point (pp) to the revision. Inventory investment is now estimated to have reduced GDP growth by 1.6 pp in Q1. Net exports (-0.1pp) and government (-0.1pp) also subtracted, although business fixed investment (+0.1pp) and personal consumption expenditures (+0.1pp) provided partial offsets. Real final sales—GDP excluding inventory investment—was revised down only one-tenth to +0.6%. Real gross domestic income (GDI) for Q1—first reported in today's report—fell 2.3%, the worst performance since the recession. The core PCE price index rose at a 1.2% annualized rate in Q1, one-tenth lower than initially reported.

 

Because of weaker inventory investment in Q1, we increased our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to 3.9%.

Why are you still reading? You should be BTFATH - after all corporations have billions more in stocks to buyback!