"Why This Stock Market Will Never Go Down"

Update: turns out it was satire. Supposedly:


While the last thing we would like to do is bring even more attention to today's grand slam in financial trollery, the following article by the ironically-named MarketWatch author Michael Sincere is just too funny to pass by.

Presenting: "Why this stock market will never go down" which contains such stunning pearls of financial insight as the following:

Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau. Everyone, that is, but the bears.

 

Last week’s Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). In fact, short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. In addition, the VIX is at historic lows (near 12), which reflects investor complacency.

 

Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down.

Wait, "permanently high plateau"? When was the last time we heard that line. Oh wait, nevermind.

That said, the author does point out the clear inherent falacy in his premise, namely that there no longer is any retail participation in a market which everyone realizes is too rigged, too manipulated and too broken to hope to even break even:

Ironically, retail investors are not as gung-ho about the market as in the past. Viewership of financial television programs is at 20-year lows, especially in the coveted 25-to-54 age group. It’s a sign that even as the market climbs higher, interest in the stock market is falling along with volatility.

So who benefits: why Wall Street of course - the same source which eagerly passes one hot potato to itself after another, in the process CYNKing the S&P to higher records on ever declining volume.

On the other hand, the overwhelming view of Wall Street can be summarized by two Morgan Stanley analysts, who predicted that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.40%  will be at 3,000 in five years, a 50% increase. If they’re right, the Dow will hit 25,000 lickety-split. Dow 25,000 has a nice ring to it, and to Morgan Stanley and others on Wall Street, an additional 50% gain is actually a conservative estimate. This is a market that is unstoppable. If only they can convince Ma and Pa, the market would go even higher.

Then the author for some inexplicable reason decides to troll "bears" by "exposing" two "conspiracy theories." Actually, in retrospect the click-bait reason is quite explicable.

While the bulls are laughing, the bears are sulking. No one believes their Chicken Little doom-and-gloom warnings. A 10% correction? Wrong! A 20% crash? Wrong! Last month, after the Dow fell more than 600 points, the bears thought they had a chance, but they were mistaken. If you believed the bad news bears, you would have missed out on a 200% gain since 2009.

 

The market has shrugged off multiple geopolitical problems, low market volume, trillions of dollars of debt, sky-high sentiment, extreme P/E ratios for many high-flying stocks, and dozens of other red flags. Yawn. The only gorilla in the room that matters is the Fed.

 

And because bears are sore losers, they have come up with wild conspiracy theories to explain why they have been so wrong:

 

Conspiracy theory #1 — Plunge protection: Market observers have noticed a pattern that has been repeated for months. As soon as the market begins to sell off (usually in the morning), a massive computer algorithm enters with buy orders, preventing the market from falling. On the chart, it makes a “V” pattern. Conspiracy theorists believe the Fed is doing the buying, but they have no proof. We know that the Fed buys bonds, but buying stocks would go way beyond their mandate. Conspiracy theorists believe the Fed is terrified of letting the market fall because it could turn into a massive crash.

 

Conspiracy theory #2 — Ignore inflation: The bears believe this is a faux bull market that has turned into the biggest bubble in stock market history. They believe the Fed and other central banks around the world will keep interest rates low indefinitely by ignoring inflation. I have bad news for the bears: You’re right: The Fed will do everything in its power to keep interest rates low. As soon as the Fed seems serious about raising interest rates (that’ll be the day), the stock market might hiccup. But why would the Fed raise interest rates and crash the party?

Why indeed... Oh, maybe because as we showed yesterday excess liquidity in the market has never been higher and the central banks, the Fed included, know that once the Kool-Aid spice ends, nobody knows just how far the market will crash. So instead they do the only thing they can - push it to ever bubblier levels.

It is not until the end that one senses of hint of sarcasm:

If you study history, you know that no one thought the price of tulips, houses, or stocks would ever go down. Even most bulls believe that “one day” there will be a correction, but that day is far away. After all, the Fed has an unlimited supply of magical tools, and they are determined to keep the market from falling.

But said "sarcasm" promptly evaporates when one reads the final sentence, and realizes that the author was serious all along.

Unfortunately for soul-searching bears, the Fed trumps all. As long as new money flows into stocks, interest rates are low, and the market keeps going up, why worry?

As we said: pure trolling comedy. As to why worry... well "long-term" trader memories may be 6 years or less, but the last time everyone put their faith in the Fed, the market plunged some 60%.