Shale War Full Frontal

Despite Saudi prince bin Talal's explanations of the imbalances between supply and demand being the prime driver of lower oil prices, we thought a look at just where that over-supply is coming from might provide some context into the 'shale oil war'. As the following chart shows, since the start of 2014, rig counts in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE have surged (just as they did in the mid-2000s). As of this week, US rig counts are now at 14 month lows as it appears clear that the core OPEC producers are intent on drowning the shale oil industry in excess supply.

 

Data: Baker Hughes

Chart: Bloomberg

 

And as T.Boone Pickens noted previously, the last time this happened (massive oversupply from Saudis), the US rig count was more than halved (from what then was an unprecedented surge)...

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