"Prospects For A Home Run In 2015 Aren’t Good" - November Case-Shiller Confirms Ongoing Housing Market Slowdown

In a day of furious disappointments, the Case-Shiller housing report, albeit looking at the ancient economic picture as of November, confirmed what most had known: that the growth in housing prices slowed down yet again on not only a Year over Year basis, which rose just 4.31%, the lowest annual increase since October 2012...

... but also dropped by -0.22% decline on a monthly basis, which may not sound like much, but was the worst monthly drop since February 2012!

 

The breakdown by city:

 

And from the report:

Home Price Gains Continue to Slow According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

 

Year-over-Year

 

Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year growth rates decline in November compared to October. The 10-City Composite gained 4.2% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in October. The 20-City Composite gained 4.3% year-over-year, compared to 4.5% in October. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.7% annual gain in November 2014 versus 4.6% in October 2014.

 

Miami and San Francisco continue to lead all cities, posting gains of 8.6% and 8.9% over the last 12 months. Nine cities, including Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Portland, saw annual growth rates climb more than other cities in November. 12-month growth rates for Detroit and Miami dropped the most among all 20 cities.

 

Month-over-Month

 

The National and Composite Indices were both marginally negative in November. The 10 and 20-City Composites reported declines of -0.3% and -0.2%, while the National Index posted a decline of -0.1% for the month. Tampa led all cities in November with an increase of 0.8%. Chicago and Detroit offset those gains by reporting decreases of -1.1% and -0.9% respectively.

The conclusion:

“With the spring home buying season, and spring training, still a month or two away, the housing recovery is barely on first base,” says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Prospects for a home run in 2015 aren’t good. Strong price gains are limited to California, Florida, the Pacific Northwest, Denver, and Dallas. Most of the rest of the country is lagging the national index gains. Moreover, these price patterns have been in place since last spring. Existing home sales were lower in 2014 than 2013, confirming these trends.

 

Difficulties facing the housing recovery include continued low inventory levels and stiff mortgage qualification standards. Distressed sales and investor purchases for buy-to-rent declined somewhat in the fourth quarter. The best hope for housing is the rest of the economy where the news is better. 2014 was a good year for job creation and weekly unemployment claims – good short term indicators – which continue to provide upbeat reports. Consumer confidence, helped by cheap gasoline prices, is strong, and a good GDP number is expected this week.”

4th housing dead cat bounce: over.

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