This last push higher in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ feels like a major top forming.
For certain the move is being pushed by fewer and fewer companies. Meanwhile, the NYSE, the largest US stock exchange, has been seesawing for a year now:
Regarding the other indices, ever since stocks began their near vertical climb in late 2012, the 126-day moving average (DMA) has been of critical import from a momentum perspective.
Indeed, the only time the S&P 500 has broken below this was during the October 2014 collapse when the financial world briefly realized that the global economy was once again contracting… DESPITE the Fed and other Central Banks having spent over $11 trillion attempting to prop it up.
Since that time, stocks have seesawed back and forth between worrying of economic weakness and hoping for more Central Bank monetary action. We’ve visited the 126-DMA no less than five times in the span of four months.
Meanwhile, the Dow Transport Index, which is far more closely associated with the real economy, has in fact already broken below the 126-DMA again.
This is particularly important because it was the Transportation index that peaked out first in 2007, collapsing long before the S&P 500 caught on that the economy was weakening:
1) Momentum is waning.
2) Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally.
3) Economically sensitive indices are already rolling over.
All of these are signs of a top forming.
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