Key Events In The Coming Week

The week after NFP is traditionally quiet, with the biggest event in the coming days is the FOMC Minutes report due this Wednesday (or Tuesday if one is on the Fed's "special" email distribution list, speaking of which hi Brian Gross, any chance we can get on that list?)

Here is the summary of the key US events via BofA:

And, from Goldman Sachs, here is the detailed breakdown of what to expected.

In DMs, highlights of next week include US FOMC Minutes, MP Decisions in UK, Japan and Australia, Composite and Services PMI in DMs, IP in Euro area.

  • [Monday] --.
  • [Tuesday] Australia MP Decision; Composite and Services PMI in DMs.
  • [Wednesday] US FOMC Minutes, Japan MP Decision.
  • [Thursday] Germany IP; UK MP Decision.
  • [Friday] IP in Denmark, France, Norway, Spain and UK.

In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in India, Singapore, South Korea and Peru; Minutes in Hungary, Israel, Mexico and Chile, China CPI.

  • [Monday] Minutes in Israel and Chile, Chile Economic Activity.
  • [Tuesday] India MP Decision.
  • [Wednesday] Hungary Minutes; IP in Hungary and Turkey.
  • [Thursday] MP Decisions in South Korea and Peru, Mexico Minutes.
  • [Friday] China CPI, IP in Malaysia, Czech Republic and Mexico.

Monday, April 6

  • Events: Speech by Fed’s Dudley.
  • United States | Labor Market Conditions Index Change (Mar): GS 2, previous 4
  • United States | ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Mar): GS 56.0, consensus 56.6, previous 56.9
  • Israel | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Ukraine | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 34.70% (2.20% mom), previous 34.50% (5.30% mom)
  • Chile | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Chile | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Feb): Consensus 2.00%, previous (r) 0.03 ((r) 0.80% mom)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Composite and Services PMIs and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite; Japan Leading and Coincident Index [EM] India Services and Composite PMI; Romania Wage Statistics; Brazil IC-Br Commodity Price Index.

Tuesday, April 7

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Kocherlakota, BOJ’s Kuroda, RBA’s Richards.
  • Sweden | Industrial Production NSA YoY (Feb): Previous 0.80% (1.00% mom)
  • Australia | MP Decision: We expect the RBA will to cut the cash rate to 2.00%, while consensus expects rates on hold.
  • DMs | Composite PMI (Mar F): Eurozone (GS 54.1, previous 54.1), France (GS 51.7, previous 51.7), Germany (GS 55.3, previous 55.3), Italy (Previous 51), Spain (Previous 56), United Kingdom (GS 57.3, previous 56.7)
  • DMs | Services PMI (Mar F): Eurozone (GS 54.3, consensus 54.3, previous 54.3), France (GS 52.8, previous 52.8), Germany (GS 55.3, previous 55.3), Italy (Previous 50), Spain (Previous 56.2), Sweden (Previous 56.7), UK (Consensus 56.9, previous 56.7)
  • India | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Repurchase Rate at 7.5%, in line with consensus).
  • Philippines | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 2.60%, previous 2.50% (0.10% nsa mom)
  • Romania | GDP YoY (4Q F): Previous 2.60% (0.50% qoq)
  • South Africa | HSBC South Africa PMI (Mar): Previous 50
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Consumer Credit and JOLTS Job Openings; Eurozone PPI; Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves; Australia Retail Sales and ANZ Job Advertisements [EM] Malaysia Foreign Reserves; Czech Republic Trade Balance; Romania Industrial Sales; Russia Official Reserves Assets; Brazil Vehicle Sales; Chile Trade Balance; Colombia Exports.

Wednesday, April 8

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Dudley and BOJ’s Kuroda.
  • United States | Minutes from MP Decision: Taken together, the March FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair's press conference were more dovish than expected. For the minutes, we will be watching for any discussion (1) on the timing of liftoff, (2) on what qualifies as "reasonably confident", (3) on the weakness in exports and US growth, (4) on labor market slack and the lowered estimate of long-run unemployment in the SEP, and (5) on the mechanics of liftoff.
  • Eurozone | Retail Sales YoY (Feb): Previous 3.70% 1.10% mom)
  • Switzerland | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus -1.10% (0.10% mom), previous -0.80% (-0.30% mom)
  • Japan | MP Decision
  • Taiwan | CPI YoY (Mar): GS -0.40%, consensus -0.78%, previous -0.19%
  • Hungary | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Feb): Previous 7.70% (4.30% sa mom)
  • Hungary | CPI YoY (Mar): Previous -1.00% (0.50% mom)
  • Turkey | Industrial Production YoY (Feb): Previous -2.20% (-1.40% mom)
  • Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY (Mar): GS 8.21% (1.40% mom), consensus 8.18% (1.40% mom), previous 7.70% (1.22% mom)
  • Chile | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 4.26%, consensus 4.40% (0.80% mom), previous 4.40% (0.40% mom)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; UK Sales Monitor and New Car Registrations; France Retail PMI and Trade Balance; Germany Factory Orders; Italy Retail PMI; Japan CA [EM] Indonesia Foreign Reserves; Philippines Exports; Taiwan Trade Balance; Hungary Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Mexico Vehicle Domestic Sales and Consumer Confidence Index.

Thursday, April 9

  • Germany | Industrial Production WDA YoY (Feb): Consensus (0.10% sa mom), previous 0.90% (0.60% mom)
  • United Kingdom | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold at 0.50%.
  • South Korea | MP Decision: Given low inflation and weaker-than-expected exports in March, we expect the MPC to stay on hold with a dovish statement in the April meeting. While we do not rule out the possibility of a surprise cut, our baseline remains a July cut following the June FOMC meeting. Our forecast of a rate cut later this year is further supported by the BOK governor’s recent comment that, under the current global and domestic macro circumstances, macro stability (growth and inflation) matters more than financial stability (mostly household debt).
  • Czech Republic | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 0.30%, consensus 0.30% (0.20% mom), previous 0.10% (0.20% mom)
  • Romania | Industrial Output YoY (Feb): Previous 3.40% (0.90% mom)
  • South Africa | [MAP 4] Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY (Feb): Previous -2.30% (-1.50% mom)
  • Mexico | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 3.03% (0.30% mom), consensus 3.00% (0.31% mom), previous 3.00% (0.19% mom)
  • Mexico | Minutes from MP Decision: At the meeting the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at a stimulative 3.00% with the policy statement preserving a broadly neutral near-term policy rate bias but with language that was slightly more dovish than that of the previous meeting.
  • Peru | MP Decision: We expect the MPC to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.25%, and to reiterate the easing bias of prior central bank communications. That marks a change to our original call for a 25bp rate cut in April.
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims and Wholesale Inventories; Canada Building Permits and New Housing Price Index; CA in Denmark and Germany; France Bank of France Bus. Sentiment; UK RICS House Price Balance and Trade Balance [EM] Romania Trade Balance; South Africa Gold and Mining Production.

Friday, April 10

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Lacker and Kocherlakota.
  • Denmark | Industrial Production MoM (Feb): Previous -1.90%
  • Denmark | CPI YoY (Mar): Previous 0.20% (1.00% mom)
  • Denmark | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Mar): Previous 0.00% (0.90% mom)
  • France | Industrial Production YoY (Feb): Previous 0.60% (0.40% mom)
  • Norway | Industrial Production MoM (Feb): Previous -3.00%
  • Norway | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 2.20% (0.50% mom), previous 1.90% (0.40% mom)
  • Spain | Industrial Output SA YoY (Feb): Previous 0.40% (-2.00% nsa yoy)
  • United Kingdom | Industrial Production YoY (Feb): Consensus 0.30% (0.30% mom), previous 1.30% (-0.10% mom)
  • United Kingdom | [MAP 3] Manufacturing Production YoY (Feb): Consensus 1.20% (0.30% mom), previous 1.90% (-0.50% mom)
  • United Kingdom | Construction Output SA YoY (Feb): Previous -3.10%
  • China | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 1.00%, consensus 1.30%, previous 1.40%
  • China | PPI YoY (Mar): GS -4.90%, consensus -4.40%, previous -4.80%
  • Malaysia | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Feb): Previous 7.00%
  • Czech Republic | [MAP 4] Industrial Output YoY (Feb): GS 4.40%, consensus 4.10%, previous 2.90%
  • Romania | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 0.70%, previous 0.40% (0.30% mom)
  • Mexico | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Feb): GS (2.10% mom), consensus 1.60%, previous 0.30% (-0.40% mom)
  • Also interesting: [DM] United States Monthly Budget Statement and Import Price Index; Canada Unemployment and Housing Starts; France Budget Balance and Manufacturing Production; Norway Manufacturing Production; Switzerland Unemployment; Japan Bank Lending Incl Trusts [EM] China New Yuan Loans; M2 and Total Social Financing; Malaysia Manufacturing Sales; Turkey CA; Trade Balance in Russia, India and Peru