Stocks, Cable Slide On Brexit Poll Surprise

Confirming the trend in bookies' bets, the latest polls (both telephonic and online) now point to 'Brexit' being more likely than 'Bremain'. This sparked a 100 pip plunge in Cable and sent US and European stocks lower...

 

Which should not be a huge surprise, as we noted previously, while that has become the narrative for the mainstream, professionals have been hedging Sterling volatility at a record level...

As Bloomberg reports, investors are now paying a record premium to hedge against the pound’s fluctuations over the next month as risks surrounding the U.K. referendum on European Union membership persist. Sterling’s one-month implied volatility versus the dollar has surged to 7.83 percentage points relative to historical swings, from 2.56 yesterday.

And today's Brexit-favoring polls...

  • Phone poll on U.K. referendum on EU shows 45% leave, 42% remain and 13% undecided, according to ICM poll released by Guardian on its website.
  • Online survey shows 47% leave, 44% remain, 9% undecided

 

Confirm what bookies had signalled - Ladbrokes noted a huge increase in the proportion of money being bet on Brexit...

And are moving the odds...

  • *WILLIAM HILL LENGTHEN EU REFERENDUM REMAIN ODDS TO 1/5 FROM 1/6
  • *WILLIAM HILL SHORTEN EU REFERENDUM LEAVE ODDS TO 10/3 FROM 7/2

Perhaps the latest fraud was enough to push The Brits past the tipping point, as if the lying fearmongering propaganda was not enough...

“The BOE is cynically exploiting its authority by claiming to detect Brexit-induced anxiety in the cloud of short-term data,” Mody, who’s now a visiting professor at Princeton University, wrote in an article published on the Independent News website. “More outrageous is the bank’s warning of mayhem if Britain votes to leave. The bank is, in effect, building a narrative of panic, which could become self-fulfilling. The central bank’s proper role is to reassure and stand by to stem panic.”