It's All Over As "Leave" Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

 

Final update to this historic post, just to make it official :

  • BREXIT VOTE-LEAVE HAS WON MORE THAN 16.784 MLN VOTES, ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE VICTORY IN EU REFERENDUM - BBC FIGURES

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Update 12:15 PM - Turmoil...

 

Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs...

 

As Cable crashes to 30 year lows...

 

And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows...

This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever...

 

Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:

  • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
  • GOLD 1350
  • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
  • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR  10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
  • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
  • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015

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Update 11:38 PM: According to ITV, it's all over: Leave has won the referendum.

 

And BBC  and Sky both just called it too.  And now, the crying begins.

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Update 11:21 PM: ITV's latest odds for a Leave victory rise to 85%

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Update 11:17 PM: With two thirds of areas reporting, Leave has the lead with 51.5% of the vote, or 10,996,500 to 10,363,816

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Update 11:15 PM: the panic goes global. Nikkei just reported that at 13:15 local time, Japan's finmin Taro Aso will hold a press conference:

 

Update 11:00 PM: Unprecedented moves in markets as the POUND DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985

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Update 10:56 PM: Every safe haven is being aggressively bid, even the one which until yesterday was left for dead. Yes, bitcoin is soaring,

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Update 10:52 PM: And now China is starting to turmoil, with the USDCNH soaring to 6.63, while the onshore Yuan is crashing to the lowest level since January 2011.

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Update 10:50 PM: Central Banks and finance officials are starting to panic

  • ASAKAWA: WILL SPEAK TO MINISTER, TAKE NECESSARY STEPS

 

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Update 10:41PM : ITV latest odd for Leave: 80%

Markets are Turmoiling...biggest yield collapse in 5Y

 

erasing all post-Cox losses...

 

As Cable drops to 7 year lows...

 

And USDJPY has crashed to a 99 handle!!!! NKY is down 1800points...

 

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Update 10.32:  The latest total count:

  • LEAVE: 6,947,780
  • REMAIN: 6,581,905

This puts leave in the lead with 51.3% of the vote

This is the biggest single-day drop in Cable...ever

Update 10:27PM: And another city that was supposed to be solidly in the Remain camp, Sheffield, has just turned to Leave:

  • LEAVE: 136,018
  • REMAIN: 130,735

Markets just took another leg down... Cable is down almost 6%

 

And the collapse contagion is spreading...NKY down 1000 points

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Update 10:17 PM: ITV reporting that Leave probability odds are now 75%

  • ITV NEWS RESULTS ANALYSIS: 75% PROBABILITY OF LEAVE TO WIN

 

While Ladbrokes once again has Leave favorite at 4/6 with Remain 11/10

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Update: 10:11 PM: Odds of "Remain" plunge to zero...

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Update 9:53 PM: Leave has regained the total lead with some 50.2% of the vote, or 3,453,618 vs 3,420,957

 

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All major "risk-on" markets have collapsed back to the "Jo Cox" death lows...

 

Dow Futures initial drop was 550 points...

 

And post-US-Close, things are not panning out for the "everything is awesome" crowd...

 

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Update 9:40 PM: The selling panic has moderated somewhat as the vote tally moves to the south, and after Remain has regained a modest lead of 51.1%. One can see it in sterling, which has rebounded 500 pips off the lows:

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Update 9:34 PM: The latest total:

  • U.K. VOTES: REMAIN 50.7% LEAVE 49.3% AFTER 64 OF 382 DECLARE:PA

Or, as some called it, on a knife's edge

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Update 9:28 PM:  After a solid win for Remain in Glasgow, where it got 66.6% of the vote, Leave's odds have declined somewhat to Even vs 8/11 for remain.

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Update 9:13 PM: And just like that Leave is now the bookies favorite, with 7/4 odds to Leave and 2/5 odds to Stay, or just over 70%

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Update 9:10 PM:  Another big dtop for Sterling, which is plunging following news that Swansea, where Remain was expected to win, has instead lost 51.5% 48.%. And cable crashes.

And now chaos everywhere, as S&P futures tumble 2.5%, FTSE is plunging, the USD is surging 1.1%, Gold is up nearly $30 and so on

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Update 9:01 PM; The Latest Ladbrokes figures are shocking:

  • 4/6 REMAIN; 
  • 11/10 LEAVE

This means Leave is almost 50% odds now, after being 11% earlier today.

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Update 8:56 PM: The City of London just voted and here is the result

  • Remain: 78.3% (3,912)
  • Leave: 21.7% (1,087)

Update 8:26 PM: Some more votes from secondary cities:

Kettering:

  • Remain: 39.0%
  • Leave: 61.0%

Lagan Valley:

  • Remain: 46.9%
  • Leave: 53.1%

Dundee City:

  • Remain: 59.8%
  • Leave: 40.2%

South Tyneside:

  •  Remain: 38.0%
  • Leave: 62.0%

West Dunbartonshire:

  • Remain: 62.0%
  • Leave: 38.0%

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Update 8:14 PM: Just a comic interlude this time, but it appears that none other than Lindsay Lohan is also fascinated by what will happen to Brexit tonight:

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Update 7:55 PM: Swindon is the next big city, and as expected, the Leave campaign won by a 10% lead, 55% to 45%, roughly in line with what was expected. Markets roughly unchanged following these news, with GBPUSD in the mid-1.45 and ES futures -9 to 2097.

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Update 7:20 PM  The Sunderland results are in and it's a Leave tsunami with Leave crushing Remain  in a 61% to 39% vote

  • Remain: 51,930, or 39%
  • Leave 82,394, or 61%

Following the news Sterling imploded, plunging an unprecedented 700 pips from its highs of 1.50, dropping as much as 1.43 before rebounding modestly.

 

Ladbrokes odds jumped to 38% for Leave on the news after hitting 11% earlier in the day.

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Update 7:13 PM: Suddenly Leave odds are surging

And just like that, Leave's odds have more than doubled:

 

Update 7:00 PM: And a shocker already from Newcastle. As we noted earlier, Newcastle was supposed to have a comfortable 12 point leads for Remain. However, moments ago the official results came out and while Remain did in fact vote for Remain, it won by the smallest possible margin with 51% voting to Remain and 49% voting to Leave, or 65,404 REMAIN vs 63,598 LEAVE.

As noted, this was a far smaller victory than expected, and as a result Sterling has tumbled nearly 200 pips from the session highs, and has wiped out all intraday gains.

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Until this point, it was all polling, hearsay, speculation and rumors. Now, we finally have the first official results. We will update this post with incremental data as long as a clear picture emerges.

The first official result, Gibraltar, has been a whopping victory for Remain with 19,322 voting to Remain and only 823 to leave.

Some additional details from the BBC:

However a small hiccup may have emerged in the expected Bremain steamrolling, when moments ago the BBC said that Newcastle is shaping up as a marginal win for Remain, which as BBC adds appears to be worse than expected based on initial polls which had suggested a far stronger showing for Remain.

And the biggest surprise: moments ago Opinium may have flipped everything on its head when moments ago it reported that Leave is 45% and Remain is 44%:

Sterling has lost 100 pips on the news, and ES was now only up 4.5 on the session.

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Continuing coverage

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