Earlier this week we noted that Hillary's lead over Donald Trump in the polls was either 1% or 12%, depending on which poll you believed. We also pointed out that the polls were taken prior to the UK referendum, and as both candidates held different views on the matter, we were looking forward to the next round of polling to find out if either Trump or Clinton were able to sway voters further after that historic event.
Today, Rasmussen released a new presidential poll based on a survey conducted on June 28-29 of 1,000 likely voters - the result was quite stunning. In a complete reversal from last week, Rasmussen finds Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton 43% to 39%.
The tables have turned in this week’s White House Watch. After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.
Trump now earns 75% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 14% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 10% of GOP voters. Both candidates face a sizable number of potential defections because of unhappiness with them in their own parties.
Clinton appears to have emerged relatively unscathed from the release this week of the House Select Committee on Benghazi’s report on her actions as secretary of State in connection with the murder of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans by Islamic terrorists in September 2012. Rasmussen Reports will be releasing new numbers on Clinton and Benghazi at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.
Trump made a major speech on jobs and trade on Tuesday that even the New York Times characterized as “perhaps the most forceful case he has made for the crux of his candidacy …. that the days of globalism have passed and that a new approach is necessary.” Some also speculate that last week’s vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union signals a rise of economic nationalism that is good for Trump. Despite the media panic and market swings that have resulted, Americans are not particularly worried that the “Brexit” will hurt them in the pocketbook.
The latest terrorist carnage - this week in Istanbul, Turkey - also may be helping Trump who is arguing for a harsher response to radical Islam than Clinton. Voters remain lukewarm about President Obama's national security policies and expect more of the same if Clinton moves back into the White House next January. Trump, if elected, will definitely change things, voters say, but not necessarily for the best.
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Whether or not Trump can sustain this lead remains to be seen. Of course this is only one poll, however it is a dramatic turnaround nonetheless.