The Goldman Curse Strikes Again: Congratulations To Euro 2016 Winner Portugal

Moments ago, in a late nail-biter which earlier saw Ronaldo exit the game in dramatic fashion, Portugal defeated France to win the Euro 2016 championship. To the winners, congratulations.

To everyone else who was following Goldman's Euro 2016 "prediction", the outcome is hardly a surprise.

As a reminder, here is what Goldman's chief economist and, apparently, football expert said just last week, who predicted a France victory with a 2:1 goal difference:

France beat Germany 2-0 to advance to the Euro 2016 final against Portugal, against our model's expectations as of yesterday. Prior to the tournament, our model suggested France would take the trophy with a probability of 23.1%. After today's win, France's odds of becoming the next Euro champions jumped to 69.9%.


Exhibit 1: Probabilities of Advancement in Euro 2016


Exhibit 2: Predicted Knockout Stage in Euro 2016


And... Oops:

We can only hope that having just hired Jose Manuel Barroso, Portugal's former head of the EU, in four years time the vampire squid's football acumen will be at least slightly improved. Then again, if the ultimate goal was merely to once again fleece the muppets, we expect precisely the same outcome not only in 2020 but every other time Goldman "predicts" the future.