It appears the "doom-and-gloom" reality-check that President Obama (and Hillary Clinton) prefer to ignore, is working. Between FBI Director Comey's shocking decision over Hillary's emails and the Convention Bump, Trump appears to have hit enough correct notes with his polarizing speech to give him enough of a bounce to be virtually tied with Hillary in the latest Reuters poll.
Just before Republicans opened the convention on Monday, Trump had trailed Clinton by nearly 10 percentage points in the poll. But as Reuters reports, Trump has pulled nearly even with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken over the course of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this week.
The July 18-22 national online poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 38 percent supported Trump. Given the poll's credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race.
Party conventions are partly meant to introduce the candidate to the country, and nominees tend to get a boost in opinion polls afterward. In 2012, then-Republican nominee Mitt Romney rose by about 5 percentage points in the Reuters/Ipsos poll after his party's convention.
The last time Trump drew about even with Clinton was in mid-May, after his last two rivals for the Republican nomination dropped out of the race and party leaders started to get behind his campaign.
Perhaps, as we suggested yesterday, the American people is fed up withe being told how 'exceptional' the world is when they 'feel' anything but, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger notes, while 'the other side' will project his speech this week as nothing but unsubstantiated fearmongerings, Trump appeared to saved the best for last. The entire last five minutes of his speech were brilliant and what most people will remember when they think back on it. Here’s what he said:
In this journey, I’m so lucky to have at my side my wife Melania and my wonderful children, Don, Ivanka, Eric, Tiffany, and Barron: you will always be my greatest source of pride and joy. My Dad, Fred Trump, was the smartest and hardest working man I ever knew. I wonder sometimes what he’d say if he were here to see this tonight.
It’s because of him that I learned, from my youngest age, to respect the dignity of work and the dignity of working people. He was a guy most comfortable in the company of bricklayers, carpenters, and electricians and I have a lot of that in me also. Then there’s my mother, Mary. She was strong, but also warm and fair-minded. She was a truly great mother. She was also one of the most honest and charitable people I have ever known, and a great judge of character.
To my sisters Mary Anne and Elizabeth, my brother Robert and my late brother Fred, I will always give you my love you are most special to me. I have loved my life in business.
But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country – to go to work for all of you. It’s time to deliver a victory for the American people. But to do that, we must break free from the petty politics of the past.
America is a nation of believers, dreamers, and strivers that is being led by a group of censors, critics, and cynics.
Remember: all of the people telling you that you can’t have the country you want, are the same people telling you that I wouldn’t be standing here tonight. No longer can we rely on those elites in media, and politics, who will say anything to keep a rigged system in place.
Instead, we must choose to Believe In America. History is watching us now.
It’s waiting to see if we will rise to the occasion, and if we will show the whole world that America is still free and independent and strong.
My opponent asks her supporters to recite a three-word loyalty pledge. It reads: “I’m With Her”. I choose to recite a different pledge.
My pledge reads: “I’M WITH YOU – THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”
I am your voice.
So to every parent who dreams for their child, and every child who dreams for their future, I say these words to you tonight: I’m With You, and I will fight for you, and I will win for you.
To all Americans tonight, in all our cities and towns, I make this promise: We Will Make America Strong Again.
We Will Make America Proud Again.
We Will Make America Safe Again.
And We Will Make America Great Again.
He did what he needed to do in this speech. He used fear to appeal to low information, low IQ voters, while also making serious and important points on real issues Americans care about. Finally, he humanized himself in the closing minutes.
At the end of the day, I think this election will come down to one choice. Americans will be faced with two historically disliked candidates, so it will ultimately come down to voters answering the following question: Do I gamble on someone I really dislike who might actually shake things up, or do I vote for someone I dislike less but who will continue the status quo.
Are Americans fed up enough to take the gamble on Trump? Given the polls today, it appears to be heading that way.