US Manufacturing Flashes "Warning Light" As New Orders, Employment Tumble

Following the eurozone's disappointing drift lower in Manufacturing PMI (and weakness in German Services), August's US preliminary manufacturing PMI printed a disasppointing 52.1 (against expectations of 52.6). Weakness in Employment (lowest in 4 months) and New Orders underpin the drop from 52.9 to 52.1 as the 2 month hope-fueled bounce has faded...

Renaissance over...

 

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The August drop in the PMI is a disappointment but less worrying when looked at in the context of July’s better than expected reading. Taking the July and August readings together suggests that manufacturing is enjoying its best growth so far this year in the third quarter, and should help drive stronger GDP growth.

 

“With August seeing the largest rise in exports for almost two years, the improved trade performance should also help drive faster economic growth.

 

“However, a slowdown in overall order book growth is a warning light that domestic demand has waned in August, and the pull-back in hiring suggests manufacturers have become increasingly cautious about the outlook. Inflationary pressures have meanwhile eased.

 

“Policymakers will therefore be pleased to see signs that the economy may have picked up speed in the third quarter, but the Fed looks unlikely to tighten policy again until the upturn has stronger foundations, suggesting any interest rate rise looks unlikely before December.”

Charts: Bloomberg

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