While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds (and yes, flattening the JGB curve even more much to the chagrin of the BOJ) and the yen.
As JPM points out early this morning, stocks are trading poorly pretty much everywhere. Nothing necessarily “happened” as far as single headline but poor trading in Eurozone banks (DB is off ~6%, hitting fresh all-time lows) and a reassessment of last week’s central bank decisions (in particular the BOJ which wasn’t really “dovish” and opened the door to tapering) appear to be the main motivations behind the Mon morning softness. Also the media tone in Brexit-related commentary has turned dramatically in just the last few weeks w/the process now described as a lot more acrimonious and disruptive than initially anticipated.
The driver of sentiment, however, is surely the latest collapse in Deutsche Bank shares, which plunged to new all time lows after a German press report that Merkel will not provide state aid to the German lender, resulting in fresh fears about another capital raise by the German lender, if not worse.
As reported previously, Deutsche Bank fell 6.5% after a report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any state assistance before the national election next year. Concern that the lender’s capital buffers will be undermined by mounting legal charges has weighed on the shares, which have tumbled more than 50 percent this year. The bank’s 1.75 billion euros ($2 billion) of 6 percent additional Tier 1 bonds, the first notes to take losses in a crisis, fell about 2 cents on the euro to 72 cents, near a seven-month low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
DB's pain has led to the biggest loss for European shares since July 6.
The pain is focused on Europe's banks, where as the FT points out DB's collapse has dragged down the entire banking sector lower:
European stocks are now down the most since July 6 day with Spanish, Italian bourses leading declines. All 19 Stoxx 600 sectors fall with banks, insurers underperforming and food & bev, technology outperforming. 96% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 4% gain.
“The drama around Deutsche Bank puts the European financial sector in the spotlight once again,” said Michael Woischneck, who manages about $180 million as senior equities manager at Lampe Asset Management in Dusseldorf, Germany. “We’re also entering a quarter with a lot of political event risks and I’d expect big swings in volatility.”
The CBOE Volatility Index of U.S. stock swings jumped 14 percent, while the VStoxx Index for euro-area shares rallied 17 percent. The European gauge closed at its lowest since 2014 on Friday, a level that showed complacency among investors, according to Simon Wiersma, an investment manager at ING Bank NV.
Among the 24 Stoxx 600 shares that rose, Lanxess AG surged more than 8 percent after the German chemical maker agreed to buy U.S. rival Chemtura Corp. for about $2.1 billion in cash. Chemtura soared 17 percent in early New York trading.
Deutsche Bank’s crunch adds to the accumulating risks for global investors. Oil prices are volatile before Wednesday’s meeting of Russia and OPEC members after similar discussions failed in April. U.S. Democratic and Republican Party candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in a two-way race for the presidency as they head for the first of three debates on Monday. Western powers traded barbs with Russia during an acrimonious emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to halt intensive bombing of Aleppo. And speeches are due from the head of the European Central Bank, as well as regional Federal Reserve chiefs.
Energy firms also fell as crude held most of Friday’s slump on doubts that producers will agree on action to support prices when they meet Wednesday, although there has already been a spike in volatility as an early bout of headlines has sent oil back over $45. Ome some of the more prominent oil-related headlines so far this morning:
- U.A.E. SUPPORTS OIL FREEZE IF EVERYONE PARTICIPATES: MINISTER
- OIL PRODUCTION CUT IS NOT UP FOR DISCUSSION IN ALGIERS: U.A.E.
- THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED FROM ALGIERS IS OIL FREEZE: U.A.E MINISTER
- OPEC WILL ONLY TALK TO OTHER PRODUCERS IF IT REACHES AGREEMENT
All but one energy producer in the Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas Index retreated, with Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc down more than 1.6 percent before this week’s OPEC meeting.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1.2 percent. All 11 industry groups dropped, paced by industrial and consumer-discretionary companies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which makes chips for Apple Inc., led shares of suppliers lower on concern of slower iPhone 7 sales.
The Risk-off mood also spread to Emerging markets which tumbled after Turkey’s lira slid the most since July after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation to junk and the Philippine peso reaching a seven-year low on international mistrust of President Rodrigo Duterte.
The MSCI All-Country World Index of shares fell 0.5 percent as of 10:59 a.m. London time, declining for a second day. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.5 percent, heading for its biggest slide since early July, while S&P 500 Index futures expiring in December lost 0.6 percent.
As a result of the equity selloff, sovereign bonds rallied across most of Asia and Europe, with 10-year yields falling to -0.11% in Germany and -0.06% in Japan. The Bank of Japan last week shifted the focus of its monetary policy to managing yields and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday the shape of the yield curve will remain broadly where it is. So far it has flattening notably since the announcement.
US Treasuries advanced, with 10Y yields dropping two basis point to 1.60 percent. The U.S. is selling $26 billion of two-year securities on Monday, before sales of a combined $62 billion of five- and seven-year bonds later this week.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2147
- Stoxx 600 down 1.4% to 340
- FTSE 100 down 1.3% to 6821
- DAX down 1.5% to 10466
- German 10Yr yield down 2bps to -0.1%
- Italian 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.21%
- Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.97%
- S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 351.1
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.8% to 141
- US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.6%
- Dollar Index down 0.08% to 95.4
- WTI Crude futures up 0.3% to $44.63
- Brent Futures up 0.2% to $45.98
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,336
- Silver spot down 1.3% to $19.44
Top Global News
- Lanxess $2.1b Chemtura Purchase Bulks Up Additives Unit: Shareholders of lubricant-additives, flame-retardants co. will get $33.50/share.
- GE Credit Rating Cut by S&P on Possible Deal-Related Debt: Long-term corporate rating for GE, GE Capital Global Holdings reduced to AA- from AA+, S&P said Friday.
- Yahoo Said to Have Detected Hack Tied to Russia in ’14: WSJ: Hackers were seeking data on 30-40 specific users of co.’s online services.
- Target Digital Chief Leaves as Company Shakes Up Online Roles: Jason Goldberger, tasked with helping co. take on rival Amazon, has left TGT as it overhauls its online ops.
- Treasury Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling as Never Before: Foreign central banks have become yet another worry for investors in the world’s most important bond market.
- Marriott to Nearly Double Workforce in Mideast, Africa: Co. expects to add 30k more people to its regional workforce of 41k as new properties open.
- Viacom Said to Consider Three Internal Candidates for CEO: 3 are CFO Wade Davis, international TV head Robert Bakish, HR/chief admin. officer Scott Mills.
- Tudor Said to Close Singapore Trading Desk Amid Global Cuts
- ‘Magnificent Seven’ Is No. 1 Movie With $35m: ComScore: Warner Bros.’s “Storks” 2nd with $21.8m; also debut film.
- Oil Speculators Abandon Hope OPEC Reaches Supply Agreement: Oil investors turned negative at fastest pace in >1 year; Saudis Willing to Act on ‘Critical’ Oil Market: Algeria
- Trump, Clinton Assure Netanyahu on Future of U.S.-Israel Ties: Each candidate met privately with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday.
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks began the week in negative territory following last Friday's losses in the US, where a decline in crude of over 3% dampened sentiment. Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) was among the region's worst performers as exporters suffered from a firmer JPY, while ASX 200 (flat) was initially pressured by energy names amid doubts of an output freeze deal, although the index recovered in late trade. Shanghai Comp. (-1.7%) and Hang Seng (-1.6%) conformed to the downbeat tone with property and financials weighed after Nanjin City announced property restrictions and on reports Goldman Sachs are cutting HK-based jobs, while Munich Re are also scaling back its presence in Hong Kong. Price action in 10yr JGBs was relatively subdued despite weakness in stocks and the BoJ in the market under its massive bond-buying program, as participants await tomorrow's 40yr JGB auction. PBoC injected CNY 120bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bIn in 28-day reverse repos. (Newswires) PBoC set mid¬point at 6.6744 (Prey. 6.6670)
Top Asian News
- Contagion Risks Rise as China Banks Fund Each Others’ Loans: Wholesale funding 34% of smaller banks financing, Moody’s says.
- PBOC Drains Most Funds in Six Months Amid Debt Curb Speculation: Intention to limit leverage is obvious, bank analyst says.
- Barclays to Pare Office Space in Tokyo’s Roppongi After Job Cuts: U.K. bank asked 100 equity staff to leave earlier this year.
- Singapore Shipbuilder Says Australian Units Face Court Action: Otto Marine says management plans to dispute the debts.
In Europe, the indication of end of summer is clear in financial markets with almost forgotten market volatility witnessed in European trade as bears continue to drive the major EU indices which have continued to print fresh lows throughout the morning. (Euro Stoxx -1.7%) Financials and Energy both find themselves down over 2%, the former weighed upon by Deutsche Bank (-6%) as the bank continues to print fresh intraday lows following comments from Angela Merkel stating that she has no intention to bail out the Co. This, adding to a pending USD 14bIn fine for Deutsche, whom have a market cap of just USD 17bIn shows no sign of any immediate recovery for the institution. Friday's decline in oil markets has left the energy sector with no reprieve as participants await any commentary or possible decision in Algiers's OPEC meeting (26th-28th). The risk off sentiment has been evident in fixed income markets and the sell-off in equity markets has resulted in slight bullish pressure seen in the Bund, breaking through Friday's high and teasing with the 165.50 level and finding itself trading once again in negative yield.
Top European News
- Deutsche Bank Slumps to Fresh Record Low on Capital Concerns: Bank’s capital buffers may be undermined by mounting legal charges including settlement tied to sale of U.S. securities.
- Corbyn Victory Leaves Little Resolved for U.K. Labour Party: Second victory in 12 months did little to resolve differences.
- Brexit Leads 3/4 of Britain’s CEOs to Consider Moving: 69% said they’re confident Britain’s economy will continue to grow over next year; 76% are mulling some form of relocation.
- German Business Confidence Increases to Highest Level Since 2014: Gauges for current conditions rose to 114.7, and expectations increased to 104.5.
- Hollande: U.K. Must Still Help Handle Migrants After Brexit: “The U.K. is not freed of its obligations because of the sovereign decision that it took,” Hollande said Monday in Calais.
- Soros Helping to Turn Back Tide of Hedge-Fund Outflows in Europe: New crop of money managers is starting to buck the trend in Europe with backing from some of industry’s biggest names, including George Soros, Donald Sussman.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed following a 0.6 percent loss last week. The yen strengthened 0.5 percent to 100.50 per dollar as investors sought havens. Former Japanese top currency official Eisuke Sakakibara forecast on Monday that Japan’s currency will slowly strengthen, saying in a Bloomberg TV interview that he wouldn’t be surprised if it reaches 90 by the end of next year. Sakakibara, dubbed “Mr. Yen” for his ability to influence the exchange rate while a senior Ministry of Finance bureaucrat in the 1990s, correctly predicted the currency’s advance this year from near 120 to beyond 100. Turkey’s lira led losses among emerging-market currencies and the nation’s stocks and bonds tumbled after Moody’s cut the nation’s credit rating. Currencies of commodity-exporting nations fell with oil, led by the Malaysian ringgit and Russian ruble. The Philippine peso sank 0.5 percent and stocks dropped as investors were unnerved by Duterte’s policies on combating drug trafficking and efforts to boost economic and defense ties with China and Russia.
In commodities, crude oil was about 1% higher fluctuating around $45 a barrel in New York after a 4% slide on Friday. As reported on Sunday, Algeria’s Energy Minister said Saudi Arabia, the world’s No. 1 oil exporter, has offered to cut production to January levels to help convince other major producers to agree output curbs this week in Algiers. Nickel declined 1.7 percent in London, pulling back from a one-month high. Investors are awaiting the result of an environmental audit in the Philippines, which may close mines in the world’s largest supplier. Copper retreated 0.7 percent from a seven-week high. Gold was little changed, after climbing 2.1 percent last week. The precious metal’s price swings may become more severe in the final quarter owing to the U.S. presidential election and an expected interest-rate increase by the Fed, according to Citigroup Inc.
On the US calendar, the only data scheduled to be released are August new home sales and the September Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. All attention will be focused on tonight's 9PM debate between Trump and Hillary.
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Economic Event Calendar
- 10am: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels
- 10am: New Home Sales, Aug., est. 600k (prior 654k)
- 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, Sept., est. -3 (prior -6.2)
- 11:45am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks at Yale
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in San Antonio
- 7pm: Bank of Canada’s Poloz speaks in Bellingham, Wash.
- 7:50pm: Bank of Japan issues July meeting minutes
Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg
- A risk averse start to the week has put all European indices in the red with further concerns around Deutsche Bank hampering the financial sector
- In FX, the week has started with another bout of heavy selling on the usual suspects, with GBP and CAD under pressure again
- Looking ahead, highlights Include German IFO survey, US New Home Sales, ECB's Draghi, Mersch, Coeure, Nowotny and Fed's Kashkari
- Treasuries higher overnight with global equities lower amid bank and commodity company woes; week’s auction begin with $26b 2Y notes, WI 0.765%; last sold at 0.76%, stopped through by 1bp.
- Deutsche Bank AG shares dropped to a record low amid concerns that mounting legal bills, including a looming fine over its pre-crisis mortgage bond business, may force the lender to raise capital
- German business sentiment surged to the highest level in more than two years in September in a sign that corporate concerns are easing over the economic outlook and the consequences of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union
- OPEC’s decision to hold informal talks in Algiers this week has fanned speculation that the group might be about to deviate from a two-year-old policy of pumping without limits
- China and Japan have culled their stakes in Treasuries for three consecutive quarters, the most sustained pullback on record and the decline has accelerated in the past three months
- China’s banking regulator told the nation’s city banks to learn the lesson of the global financial crisis and get back to their traditional businesses, building pressure for the lenders to curb opaque shadow financing
- Japan’s central bank has effectively positioned itself for an era of monetary stimulus that extends beyond the radical tenure of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
- The Bank of Japan will make the utmost effort to achieve stability in exchange rates, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said during a speech in Osaka on Monday
- Turkey’s sovereign credit rating was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, which concluded a review initiated after an unsuccessful coup attempt on July 15
- As hedge funds hemorrhage cash at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, a new crop of money managers is starting to buck the trend in Europe with backing from some of the industry’s biggest names, including George Soros
- Saudi Arabia’s central bank stepped up efforts to support lenders, giving banks about 20 billion riyals ($5.3 billion) of time deposits and introducing seven-day and 28-day repurchase agreements, as part of its “supportive monetary policy”
- Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tied two- way race for the presidency as they head to Hofstra University in New York on Monday night for one of the most highly anticipated debates in modern politics
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DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
With central bank meetings out of the way for a while this last week of September will probably lead to a step up in focus on the US election. At 2am BST tonight we'll see the first televised debate between Clinton and Trump which is expected to be watched by over 100 million - the most ever for such a debate. According to DB's Frank Kelly the stakes are high as the opinion poll leader after this first debate has won the election each time over the last 40 years.
One of the other interesting stats I've learned from Frank is that 9 of the 14 recessions since WWII have been in the first year of a presidential term. In seeing a lot of clients over the last couple of weeks many have speculated as to whether fiscal spending from the new President could actually prolong this cycle. Our view as it stands is that the likely stimulus won't be big enough to majorly change the natural forces of the cycle. However the fiscal plans of the candidates will be fascinating to hear about tonight amongst other things. I suspect the early part of tomorrow's EMR will write itself.
Other interesting events this week include the side OPEC meeting at the International Energy Forum in Algeria which kicks off today and runs through until Wednesday. Oil is only up 1% since this get together was first flagged back on August 8th but that doesn’t really reflect the full story with the high-to-low range during that time of 17% a more appropriate reflection of the back and forth jawboning that has gone on. The latest suggestion from Algeria’s energy minister is that Saudi Arabia is ready to freeze production at January levels. Who knows how true this is, but hopefully the path forward for the oil market is made a little more obvious by the end of this week. Also the first BoE corporate bond purchases begin tomorrow with additional reverse auctions on Wednesday and Friday. There’s also a flurry of Fedspeak to watch out for along the way. The usual week ahead with is at the end of the EMR.
Meanwhile in light of the BoJ moving away from an era of monetary policy emphasis on quantity of money towards interest rates, it’ll also be important to see how markets settle down this week and digest the latest policy shifts. In the time since the BoJ meeting, the Yen is +0.71% stronger (at a shade under 101 this morning), 10y JGB’s are 3bps lower at -0.067% (although did break up into positive territory immediately following the announcement) and the Nikkei is +0.48% (including -0.84% this morning). The moves aren’t particularly eye catching although perhaps this reflects the divergent range of views over what the BoJ shift in strategy actually means.
On this, our Japan economists published a note on Friday titled the ‘Future path of monetary policy’. They suggest the strategy is a de-facto tapering in which the speed of JGB purchases by the BoJ and the monetary base should slow. They believe that a reduction in the monetary base growth at a too rapid pace could negatively affect economic activity, even allowing for the saturation in loan demand and diminishing marginal returns on economic activity under the QQE over the past three years. They don’t believe that this is the last turnaround in the BoJ’s monetary policy framework and the decision does not resolve inherent issues with the 2% inflation targeting. They note that central banks in developed countries appear to be trapped in a prisoners’ dilemma, as they are obsessed with i) achieving inflation targeting at any cost and ii) independence in monetary policy, and they do not want to admit the diminishing marginal returns on economic policy. However, in time, our colleagues believe they will begin to acknowledge that they cannot cope with these circumstances on their own, and they will return to re-evaluating the impossible trinity in international finance, which states that we cannot obtain all of the following three but only two of them: independent monetary policy, stability in exchange rates, free capital mobility. The team surmise that the new equilibrium (or compromise) is hopefully to be found in a restriction of capital mobility by introducing a financial transaction tax, a return to a semi-fixed exchange rate by allowing for a band in the movement of exchange rates, and global coordination of monetary policy (a truce to prevent infinite rounds of currency depreciation), although the path to this is well beyond their imagination.
In terms of the rest of Asia this morning it’s been a pretty soft start to the week with most major bourses following the lead from the US on Friday. Along with the drop for markets in Japan, the Hang Seng (-0.63%), Shanghai Comp (-0.63%), Kospi (-0.25%) and ASX (-0.23%) are also lower. That’s despite a modest bounceback for WTI (+0.76%) this morning. In FX markets the Turkish Lira (-0.70%) is the big underperformer following Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign rating to Ba1 from Baa3 late on Friday.
Moving on. There wasn’t too much to report from the weekend news flow. Spain held its latest regional elections with PM Rajoy’s People Party securing 41 of the 75 seats at the Galica elections, with Podemos affiliate En Marea gaining 14 seats and pushing the Socialists into 3rd place. Podemos took 3rd place in Basque country elections which was won by the Basque Nationalist Party (29 of the 75 seats). The Socialists were beaten into 4th place meaning they suffered heavy losses in both elections.
Meanwhile in the UK the Sunday Telegraph ran a story suggesting that the UK International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, is to make a major speech tomorrow to the World Trade Organization, signalling that the UK intends to become an independent member of the WTO when it eventually leaves the EU and so enabling it to negotiate its own trade deals outside of the EU. This follows on from a number of headlines in the last couple weeks suggesting that the UK is heading for a potentially difficult negotiating period ahead and a possible ‘hard brexit’. Sterling closed down -0.86% on Friday and back below $1.30. It’s now fallen for the last three weeks.
In terms of markets elsewhere, in the wake of the Fed and BoJ outcomes last week, the rally in equity markets finally came to an end on Friday with a 4% or so fall for Oil certainly helping matters. The S&P 500 closed -0.57% and in turn brought to an end three consecutive daily gains, although the index did still close up +1.19% over the five days. The Stoxx 600 (-0.72%) was also down on Friday but still +2.23% over the week. The US Dollar and 10y Treasuries were both little changed while yields in Europe were generally a couple of basis points higher.
The highlight data-wise came in Europe where the September flash PMI’s were out. The Euro area composite reading eased from 52.9 to 52.6 (vs. 52.8 expected) this month which our Europe economists suggest points to +0.3% qoq GDP growth and a slowdown compared to the recovery pace seen during late 2014 to early 2016. The softer composite PMI was a result of a slowdown in the services sector (-0.7pts to 52.1; 52.8 expected), which is now down by 2 points since Q4 2015. The manufacturing sector on the other hand has been stable with the export outlook slightly improving according to our colleagues. By country, the notable takeaway was an improvement in the composite in France (+1.2pts to 53.3; 51.8 expected) which is now ahead of Germany (-0.6pts to 52.7; 53.6 expected) for the first time since 2012. The PMI’s also implied a 1.1pt decline across the composite for the periphery. Meanwhile, the flash manufacturing PMI in the US (-0.6pts to 51.4) was softer after expectations were for no change.
Wrapping up, there was also some Fedspeak to highlight on Friday. The Boston Fed’s Rosengren, who dissented at the FOMC meeting last week, said that ‘I am arguing for modest, gradual tightening now, out of concern that not doing so today will put the recovery’s duration and sustainability at greater risk’. The Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, on the other hand, said that ‘we can afford to be patient in removing accommodation’.
Turning over to the week ahead now. Kicking things off this morning will be Germany where the September IFO survey is due to be released, while the UK will follow with the latest CBI reported sales data for this month. In the US the only data scheduled to be released are August new home sales and the September Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. We start in Asia on Tuesday where Japan PPI and China industrial profits data are both scheduled to be released. The only data worth highlighting in Europe on Tuesday is the M3 money supply growth figure for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll firstly get the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for July, followed by the remaining flash PMI’s (services and composite), consumer confidence in September and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for this month. Turning to Wednesday, during the Asia period we’ll get small business confidence in Japan and also the latest consumer sentiment reading in China. During the European session we’ll then get consumer confidence readings out of Germany, France and Italy. There’s important data in the US on Wednesday with the flash August durable and capital goods orders numbers. We’ve got a reasonably busy calendar on Thursday to get through. In Japan we’ll get the August retail trade and sales data. During the European session we’ll get September CPI and unemployment data out of Germany, along with Euro area confidence indicators in September and also UK money and credit aggregates numbers for August. During the US session all eyes will be on the third revision to Q2 GDP (expected to be nudged up two-tenths to +1.3% qoq), while the August advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims and pending homing sales for August are also due. We close the week in Japan with a bumper set of releases include the jobless rate, household spending, industrial production, housing starts and the August CPI print. China will also release the Caixin manufacturing PMI print. During the European session we’ll get CPI and PPI in France, the final Q2 GDP print for the UK and also CPI for the Euro area in September. In the US we end the week with the personal income and spending report for August, PCE core and deflator readings, Chicago PMI and finally the last revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
If that wasn’t enough, there’s plenty away from the data too. ECB President Draghi is due to speak at EU parliament in Brussels today at 3pm BST while the Fed’s Tarullo and Kaplan are also due to speak. The first US Presidential election debate also takes place overnight (2am BST) while the OPEC meeting in Algeria is also obviously worth keeping an eye on given the informal sideline meeting of producers. The forum will run through to Wednesday. It’s also expected that Italy PM Renzi will set the date for the planned referendum on constitutional reform at some stage today. Tomorrow the Fed Vice-Chair Fischer is due to speak. On Wednesday there’s more Fedspeak with Bullard and Evans are also due to speak along with Fed Chair who is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic of bank supervision, although this is a platform not commonly associated with the Fed Chair expressing opinions on either the economic outlook or monetary policy. On Thursday we hear from the Fed’s George and also the BoJ’s Kuroda during the Asia session – although we’re not sure if Kuroda will be speaking on monetary policy at all. The Fed’s Harker, Lockhart, Powell and Kashkari are also due to speak, as is Yellen again before a minority banking conference. With little in the way of key data since the FOMC it’s unlikely that this will be hugely market moving. The European Banking Summit also kicks off in Brussels on Thursday. Finally on Friday during the Asia session we get the BoJ summary of opinions from last week’s meeting.