US Equity Markets "Most Euphoric" In 23 Years Despite Commodity Carnage

Overheard at The SNB today...

 

"Sell The News" was the narrative after Macron's "victory for the world"...

 

The Dow desperately tried to hold 21,000 and unchanged...

 

but broadly US equities were 'meh' with Trannies and Small Caps were notably worst...

 

Based on the Panic-Euphoria model, the S&P 500 has not been this "euphoric" since Jan 1994 (and historically has never stayed here long).

NOTE: From Jan to March 1994, the S&P 500 fell 10% and VIX jumped from 9.59 to over 28

As a reminder, US equity ETF outflows hit their highest level in 16 months last week...

 

VIX traded back below 10 for the 3rd time in a week...

 

To close at its lowest close since Dec 1993...

 

Sohn Conference moved some stocks - Ackman peddled HHC (and it jumped) and Palihapitiya punted Tesla Converts (and the gains didn't hold)...

 

AAPL shot up 3% today - breaking $800 billion market cap - adding around 30 points to The Dow (which IBM and Goldman removed)...

 

EURUSD suffered it biggest drop since March today as traders "sold the news"...

 

Which sent the USD Index surging to last week's highs... best day for the dollar since Jan 26th

 

Treasury yields were higher on the day... (but notice the flip at the start of US trading)

 

With the 30Y back above 3.00%...

 

 

Bitcoin soared to another record highs as gold trod water...

 

Crude ended the day modestly higher as China Trade data (big drop in China oil demand) battled with incessant jawboning from the Saudis about extending production cuts...

 

Once again Gold was hammered lower into the London Fix (note the mini flash crash at the open last night after Macron's victory)

 

Commodities continued to tumble (down 3 of the last 4 days) to the lowest levels 2016...erasing all of the gains since the election...

 

The reason we note this is because it seems the industrial metals are the lead indicators for 'reflation' - or more simply the China credit impulse...

 

Finally, we note NYFed Recession Indicator is trending one way only...