UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election As 'Hope' Disappears

Following the biggest 2-week plunge in Bloomberg's index of economic comfort in 6 years, UMich reports a big disappointment in the preliminary print for June. At 93.1 (below the 95.0 expectation), this is the weakest print since Oct 2016 - before the election.

UMich point sout that overall, the recent data follow the same pattern repeatedly recorded around past cyclical peaks: expectations start to post significant declines while assessments of current economic conditions continue to reach new peaks. To be sure, the data do not suggest an impending recession. Rather, the data indicate that hopes for a prolonged period of 3% GDP growth sparked by Trump's victory have largely vanished, aside from a temporary snap back expected in the 2nd quarter. The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2% GDP growth in 2017.

The drop was driven by a plunge in 'hope' as expectations dropped the most since Oct 2013.

UMich notes that the weakness in the Expectations Index in early July was concentrated among Republicans (falling to 108.9 from June’s 116.0 and February’s 120.1); Democrats continue to hold much less favorable expectations, although the Expectations Index among Democrats has markedly improved (to 63.2 from June’s 62.0 in June and 55.5 in February).

While UMich doesn't release their demographic data, Bloomberg's comfort index gives an idea of the partsan divide in confidence...

Comments

Bryan Bill of Rights Fri, 07/14/2017 - 10:26 Permalink

Exactly.  What the heck does "93.1" mean anyway?  Or 95 or 35 or 102?  People flip out over the dumbest things.So it's a liberal-source survey?  What are the questions... I can guess: 1) Don't you just hate the racist Donald Trump?  _____2) When do you think the economy will collapse because of him?  ______3) Doesn't the color orange bother you?  ______4) Don't you think the country would have been better under Hillary?  ______5) How much do you miss President Obama?  ______6) When were you first triggered on Nov 9, 2016? _____7) Don't you feel depressed and less hopeful now that Trump is president?  ______

In reply to by Bill of Rights

Snaffew Fri, 07/14/2017 - 10:17 Permalink

markets look like they are just clinging to another hope trade today....house of cards on an oil coated teflon pan with a storm brewing---where's the wind?

Market Rage Fri, 07/14/2017 - 11:31 Permalink

The boys seem to be running some sort of predatory algo on R2K and trying get every last short out.  That would most likely precede a strong move down next week. Garbage.