Gartman Stakes His Reputation That "The Bull Market Has Come To An End"

If the algos were waiting for just one catalyst to unleash the buy everything, sell VIX program, they may have gotten it moments ago when, following a global rout across markets on yet another day of North Korean nuclear war concerns, Dennis Gartman, staking his "reputation" said that he is "fearful… very… that this wondrous bull market that began in the spring of ‘09 has come to an end and we do not make this statement lightly for we know the damage that can be done to an already damaged reputation if this statement proves to be wrong."

Judging by the spike in futures after today's 5th consecutive miss in CPI, which paradoxically has now pushed the dollar higher, Gartman's "reputation" suddenly appears in peril.

His key thoughts excerpted below:

There are two questions facing us this morning regarding investment in equities. Firstly, will the “Machines”… the algorithmic buyers… trained only to buy weakness step to the fore once again and buy equities with abandon? We must remember that the “Machines” have a very limited memory; they’ve no memory of decades past and of protracted bear markets. Instead, their algorithms tell them to simply buy weakness and this, clearly, is weakness. So shall they? That is THE question.

 

Secondly, we wonder if the supposed support for the market here in the US at or near 2435 in the nearby S&P futures… and in the “spot”… will hold, for as the chart included at the bottom of p.1 would seem to suggest that support absolutely must hold. As we write, it is and as the day progresses it must.

 

We have our very serious doubts however and those doubts are raised for a number of very real and very serious reasons, not the least of which is that some of the truly best and brightest investors of our age are retreating or have already retreated to the sidelines, fearing the arrival of at least a material, damaging correction of some 7-10% or perhaps even the onslaught of a true bear market. Paul Singer… in our eyes one of the five best investors of the age… of Elliott Management has said that he is prepared “For all hell to break loose.” Bill Gross… perhaps the preimminent bond market analysts/trader/investor of the age… has gone on record as stating only just recently that the risks of equity ownership are as high as they were in ’08, and that at this point when buying weakness “instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers.” And then there is the always quotable… and genius… Mr. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital who’s gone on record to suggest that the “perpetual motion machine” that everyone has come to believe the stock market to be to the upside has ground to a halt.

 

Finally, we wrote yesterday about the rare nature of the “unanimity” of movement in stocks around the world and said

the fact that there is unanimity of weakness is important to us for this is a rather rare event. Indeed, history shows that unanimity of market movements such as this happen at the beginnings of and/or the endings of protracted trends…

 

[Thus]… bull markets end with either a “universal” day higher, or to see it end with a day such as the current day when all ten markets turn lower. In other words, we do not take this sort of unanimity of direction lightly, but rather we pay it very serious heed 

We are indeed fearful… very… that this wondrous bull market that began in the spring of ‘09 has come to an end and we do not make this statement lightly for we know the damage that can be done to an already damaged reputation if this statement proves to be wrong. But the monetary authorities who’ve sponsored this bull market with their massive injections of money borne out of the ether have begun the process of either standing down from that monetary expansionism or have at the very least chosen to slow the process… either of which shall be deleterious to equity.

 

Comments

Fake Trump Muddy1 Fri, 08/11/2017 - 09:32 Permalink

Minus another 500 today. Nobody loves a fire and fury weekend for sure. Trump just opened his big mouth again saying locked and loaded. He has an unstable personality. Can't trust him at all. A seven times draft dodger who suddenly became the Commander in Chief. What a joke. Just like asking a cab driver to be the CEO of Apple.

In reply to by Muddy1

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah (not verified) The Cooler King (not verified) Fri, 08/11/2017 - 10:17 Permalink

@ Killtruck re: Fake Trump: The mental illness known as liberalism causes, what sometimes seem to be normal people, to froth at the mouth, going spastic about people and/or things that they hate. If it were not an illness it would be hysterical. And they truly believe that they will convince people that their "argument" is correct by going spastic. Sad.

In reply to by The Cooler King (not verified)

chubbar TomJoad Fri, 08/11/2017 - 09:35 Permalink

First, it ALL depends on what the FED wants to do. If it decides to stop the behind the scenes support of the market then it crashes, if the FED continues to pour billions into supporting it, then it goes up. I'm not sure what the confusion is about? If the retards posing these types of questions don't understand what is going on, then any conclusions they offer should be disregarded. The tools that exist that can control downdrafts in the market until FED support hits and shoves it back up are more than adequate for the job. Everyone should know that the FED is setting the markets up for a crash that will be generational if not final, this is by design. The market doesn't crash unless and until the FED/Deep State decides it's time. Everything is tied to the markets now. When that goes, the economy goes full stop. Prepare for it.

In reply to by TomJoad

BeanusCountus thinkmoretalkless Fri, 08/11/2017 - 13:28 Permalink

Have to admit, Gartman rarely correct. But there are more reputable folks that deserve a listen saying some pretty interesting stuff. Dalio recommending 5-10% in gold? Pretty damn high, even for him. The other guys Gartman mentions in his stuff are hardly idiots. And how about this: Sandy Jadeja the technical analyst told us what to look for in 2017 as an indicator for a short-term (year) blowdown between 15-30%. If I got it right. the indicator was the Dow hitting a new all time high in a week that ended with a weekly close. Unless Dow picks up another 200 pts or so before eod, that's what will happen today.

Throw in the start of balance sheet reduction by Fed starting Sept (slow at first), a little NK jawboning, no tax reform, a couple other surprises and you have a pretty interesting few months.

In reply to by thinkmoretalkless