"The Perfect Storm Is Brewing": Goldman Warns Italy Has The Lowest Capacity To Absorb Migrants

While Europe's economy and capital markets have been spared any major shocks in the past year, and in fact European GDP has been on a surprisingly resilient uptrend in recent quarters led higher by the relentless German export-growth dynamo (courtesy of the very, very low Deutsche Mark and a lot of broke Greeks), an old and recurring problem has re-emerged, one which threatens the stability and cohesion of the European Union itself: the latest surge of refugees which, arriving mostly from North Africa in recent months, has made Italy its primary landfall target resulting in a surge in migrant arrivals on Italian shores. However, with the rest of Europe largely shutting its borders to this refugee influx forcing Rome to deal with what many in Italy see as an unwelcome presence, a distinct sense of bad-will has been floating around Europe in recent months as Rome's pleas for more solidarity from its European peers have been stubbornly ignored. Meanwhile, Italy has accepted nearly 100,000 refugees in the first six months of the year and the number is rapidly rising.

Now, a new report issued by Goldman Sachs will likely pour even more gasoline on the fire, as it finds that just as Rome alleges, "Italy has the lowest capacity to absorb migrants among the major EU economies. This is measured using three indicators of integration: (1) economic integration; (2) social integration; and (3) policy effectiveness."

While hardly new for regular readers, this is how Goldman lays out the problem:

migrant flows into Europe are changing and countries differ in their capacity to integrate new arrivals. An increasing proportion of migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea come from sub-Saharan Africa rather than fleeing conflict in the Middle East. Increasingly, the destination countries are Italy and Spain, with reduced flows through Greece and the western Balkans towards Germany, largely as a result of the EU-Turkey agreement and the imposition of stricter border controls.

As a result of this constant migrant flow, successful integration is naturally a key objective for policymakers, who hope that the influx will boost output growth in the long run while seeking ways to mitigate the short-run costs caused by disruption to the labour market and wider society.

 Here, Goldman's analysts take a broad view of the integration process and provide an initial comparison of countries’ capacity for immigration: "We focus on Italy throughout, which has become the main destination country of trans-Mediterranean migrant flows and faces a general election next May."  Goldman also adds that successful integration matters for the bank's macroeconomic outlook two reasons.

First, the bulk of migrant flows into the EU this year have been in the central Mediterranean, oriented towards Italy. Second, the country already faces economic and political pressures from its struggling public finances and the rise of populism ahead of next year’s election.

And yet, what Goldman finds is that the nation that has been "tasked" with accepting the vast majority of migrants in 2017 is the one that is most unsuited to do just that. Here are the summary findings:

  • Economic integration, measured by relative immigrant-native unemployment rates, appears particularly low in Italy, Greece, Spain and Hungary. These countries suffer from high unemployment across the population but immigrants bear a disproportionate amount of the burden. In contrast, the UK has the lowest immigrant-native unemployment gap.
  • Social integration, roughly estimated using information on public attitudes towards immigration, is weakest in the countries most affected by the migration crisis. While the crisis shows signs of easing for countries such as Greece, it is intensifying in Italy.
  • Policy effectiveness, measured by independent research by the MIPEX organisation, is lowest in Greece and Hungary.

Some additional details, first on economic integration:

Economic integration can be measured by assimilation to the labour market. Exhibit 3 shows the immigrant-native gap in unemployment rate for 1st and 2nd generation migrants across several EU countries. The immigrant-native gap in unemployment provides an initial and general measure of economic integration, with full integration implied by no gap at all. Looking at the change in this gap across generations provides a dynamic measure of the integration process: a smaller gap for the children of migrants relative to their parents implies integration over generations. In this way, Exhibit 3 illustrates two ways to analyse economic integration across countries:

  • By considering the bars in levels, one can compare the level n of integration across countries (by generation).
  • By considering the difference between generations, once can compare the rate of integration across countries.


Spain and Greece show the lowest levels of economic integration, implied by the widest immigrant-native gaps. Italy and Hungary show the lowest rates of economic integration, with 2nd generation migrants faring even worse than their parents on average. These four countries also have the highest unemployment rates among the population as a whole. The point to be made is that within these countries, unemployment disproportionately affects the immigrant population and there is a clear lack of catch-up by the 2nd generation.

Ok, so Italy is hardly the place to park refugees if one hopes to see them integrated economically. What about socially? Here is the answer:

Social integration can be estimated by the public’s attitude towards immigration. Social cohesion is hard to measure but can be estimated from certain kinds of information produced by surveys. Existing research focuses on two indicators: the discrimination against migrants and the host country’s degree of acceptance of immigration. We choose to consider the latter. Exhibit 4 shows public sentiment in the EU toward new immigrants, based on the Eurobarometer 2017.




Prima facie, Hungary appears the most socially hostile to migrants, with Italy and Greece also expressing robust anti-immigration sentiment. In all countries, negative attitudes have been provoked by the migration crisis. Yet while migrant flows to Hungary and Greece have slowed, in Italy they are picking up. According to the Italian interior ministry, migration figures in Italy are on track to exceed the annual record of 181,000 immigrants set in 2016 and widespread violence in Libya has driven the number of asylum seekers crossing the central Mediterranean to surge by 44% compared with the same period last year

So far, Italy - along with Hungary - appears to be the most inhospitable nation in Europe when it comes to two key core verticals: economical and social.  How about the inverse: which European nations have the most effective policies, an indicator of a government's ability to promote integration. Goldman's answer:

The Migration Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) is an indicator produced by the Migration Policy Group and the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. It uses a range of policy areas to evaluate and compare how governments are promoting integration. Exhibit 5 shows the overall score MIPEX has given each country. Greece and Hungary have the least effective policies for integrating migrants. In 2013, Greece passed legislation obstructing the right of immigrants to vote at the national level, while a repeal of birth-right citizenship laws has left many children born in Greece without equal rights. Italy performs moderately well against this indicator and MIPEX recognises that it has made the first steps towards legal integration and equal rights. However, the challenge of achieving this in practice remains; although most long-term migrants have found jobs, they are often below their level of qualification.

Which brings us to Goldman's conclusion on which European nation is best suited to accept the thousands of daily migrant arrivals: in short - it's not Italy, or as Goldman puts it "Overall, Italy has the lowest capacity to absorb migrants compared with the major EU economies."

From the indicators used, Italy appears the least economically and socially integrated, despite performing marginally better than the EU average according to the MIPEX score for policy effectiveness. Our findings are highly significant in light of this year’s surge in trans-Mediterranean migration to Italy and the country’s vulnerable public finances. Moreover, Italy’s handling of the migration crisis will be a central issue when the country goes to the polls in the general election next May, particularly as a driving force behind support for populist opposition parties.

And while Goldman reiterates the long-held conventional credo that "the influx of migrants to Italy has the potential to bring economic benefits in the long run and offers a means to counter the country’s demographic problems (Italy’s population shrunk for the second year running in 2017)" it admits that "realising these benefits is conditional on successful economic and social integration" something which most likely will not happen as Goldman's "analysis casts doubts over Italy’s capacity to achieve this and suggests the ‘perfect storm’ is brewing."


froze25 (not verified) Swampster (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:02 Permalink

YESS!!! Now really open er up. I am talking Millions those Italians will pay for their racist ways, they will be over run. Their women will be taken, their cities will burn......Ahhhahahahhahaha!!!!!

Seriously, put the military to work and fix the problem already.

In reply to by Swampster (not verified)

J S Bach Pollo Tue, 08/22/2017 - 19:51 Permalink

Who in the f*** is Goldman to be giving reports like this about illegal immigration?! Their tribe is ultimately responsible for ALL of it.
And I love how they use the word "arrivals " in the chart... like they're arriving on planes for a vacation or something. Utter insanity. Again, I am blown away by the passive acceptance of these invaders by the indigenous peoples.

In reply to by Pollo

FreeMoney Swampster (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:07 Permalink

The real question here should be, Who is paying for the trip?  Sub-sahara annual average income is about $800.  Cost of smuggler boat ride is also about $800.  Where is the money coming from?  The vast savings accounts? https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/01/incomes-sub-sahara… https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/24/libyas-people-smugglers-h… 

In reply to by Swampster (not verified)

Swampster (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 14:57 Permalink

Imagine how much the dollar will soar when Europe falls due to the constant onslaught of 'NAZI jew induced muslim invasion....  Just as I predicted, HERE, HERE, and HERE!   

Swampster (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 14:58 Permalink

ALL WHITE COUNTRIES MUST PERISH SO THE JEW WORLD ORDER MAY FLOURISH.... Imagine how stupid white people are who still can't smell the coffee.....

pynky01 Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:06 Permalink

 ytIshmael Levitts –“It is in the Jewish interest, it is in humanities interest that whites experience a genocide until white children are burned alive, white women raped, mutilated, murdered and all white men who have not been slaughtered watch powerlessly as their people are terrorised, only then will mankind be on a more equal footing, ready to discuss white privilege and the apparent chip on the shoulder that minorities have.” Stefanie Drese, German Social Democrat –“The National Democratic Party (NPD) in Germany goal is to protect the existence and secure the biological German people, this goal is racist, NAZI and backwards. If the German people lives on, it will only lead to more fascism and racism. Therefore the goal of we, the SPD, CDU and all other Democratic parties in Germany is to make the German people perish at any cost or method. The German people must be destroyed.” Barbara Lerner Spectre, founder of PAIDEIA, European Jewish fund in Sweden –“I think there is a resurgence of anti-Semitism because at this point in time Europe has not yet learned how to be multicultural and i think we are going to be part of the throes of that transformation, which must take place. Europe is not going to be the monolithic societies they were in the last century. Jews are going to be at the centre of that. It’s a huge transformation for Europe to make. They are now going into a multicultural mode and Jews will be resented because of our leading role.” Professor Noel Ignatiev, Harvard Magazine 2002 –“The key to solving the social problems of our age is to abolish the white race.”“The goal of abolishing the white race is, on it’s face, so desirable that some may find it hard to believe that it could incur any opposition other than from committed white supremacists. Make no mistake about it, we intend to keep bashing the dead white makes and the live ones and the females too, until the social construct known as the white race is destroyed.” Wesley Clark (son of Benjamin Jacob Kanne) 24 April 1999 CNN –“There is no place in modern Europe for ethnically pure states. That’s a 19th century idea and we are trying to transition into the 21st century and we are going to do it with multi-ethnic states.” Andrew Marr, The Observer 28 February 1999 –“Widespread and vigorous miscegenation (race mixing) is the best answer. Teachers are the most effective anti-racist campaigners in the country; this means a form of political education. The final answer, frankly, is the vigorous use of state power to coerce and repress. I firmly believe that repression can be a great, civilising instrument for good. Stamp hard on certain ‘natural’ beliefs for long enough and you can almost kill them off.” Lord Peter Mandelson 13 May 2013 –“As a Labour government, we were not only welcoming people to come into this country to work, we were sending out search parties for people and encouraging them, in some cases, to take up work in this country.” Count Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi, Praktischer Idealismus 1925 –“The man of the future will be mixed-race. The Eurasian-Negroid race of the future will replace the diversity of peoples; Russian Bolshevism constitutes a decisive step towards this purpose where a small group of Communist spiritual aristocrats govern the country. The general staff of both are recruited from Europe’s spiritual leader race, the Jews. From the European quantity people, the mass, two quality races rise up, blood aristocracy and Jewry, both believe in their higher mission, of their better blood. The superiority of their spirit predestines them to become a main factor of the future nobility.” The Coudenhove Kalergi planhttps://www.google.co.uk/search?client=firefox-b&q=the+Coudenhove+Kaler…

HRH Feant2 (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:07 Permalink

3% of gimmigrants end up working and integrating. That makes 97% a liability not an asset.

When will the shooting start? Surprised it hasn't already.

QQQBall Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:38 Permalink

The globalists just want effective demand to grow. Old Italians neit! Young refugee families with 6 kids, Si! Demand is being seeded away from areas likely to be over-populated and therefore deeply and structurally depressed economically w/o migration into countries with aging demographics. TPTB are simply expanding markets. Instead of having the US demand only that is shrinking; you give a goose to birth rates in USA while moving jobs and earning power to create greater demand from Mexico.Same thing here - at least Hispanics are mostly Catholic.  And I do not for a minute believe the highly favorable percentages!

God is The Son QQQBall Tue, 08/22/2017 - 20:01 Permalink

My view on it also, Immigration, Refugee Floodisation is  about more DEBT, more Money for the International Jew. But Its also an attack on White Civilsation, Christianity. The Jew knows Arabs and African's run things to ground, they know under Mixed People's they can manage it. Athiest, Christian and Islamic Europe can be divided and made to conflict with each other for the benfit of the JEW. Europeans, Muslims, Africans have been second graded, while the JEW has taken over. It's like a Jew taking property of white farmer, then telling him his the boss, and can now pay to live on his property.

In reply to by QQQBall

Mike Masr Tue, 08/22/2017 - 16:19 Permalink

Fuck the EU they deserve what's coming! A year from now the EU will be collapsing and tens of millions of invaders, formerly known as refugees will be setting up their new European Caliphate. Sharia Law will rule over the new Caliphate that was formerly known as the EU. The globalist liberals in the EU will watch gays and LGBTQ tossed from buildings. Little 8 year old girls marrying 50 year old pedophile men. Girls forced to get cliterectomy's. Women with zero rights forced to wear hijabs and ruled over by the men. This means no voting and no driving an automobile. Bye, bye Merkel. At home the man is the ruler of the house. It's encouraged that a husband rule over the woman with an iron fist. When Sharia Law finds a woman guilty, she is stoned to death by men. Infidel Christians, Jews and others drowned in metal cages, beheaded, crucified, burned alive, shot and executed. Other infidels not yet dead must pay the Jiyza tax for being an infidel.Christian and Jewish "Kuffar" Europeans will be desperately trying to get into Orthodox Christian Russia. President Putin needs to build a new iron curtain, this time a bigger and better wall not to keep Russians in, but to keep Western European kuffar out! Serbs should be welcomed into Russia as brothers but all other Europeans should be kept the hell OUT. They all get what they deserve. Infidel citizens of the former EU better learn how to speak Arabic or Turkish, obey Sharia Law, swear by the beard, cook good halal meals for Islamic guests, hand over their pretty young women and children to maggot perverts and be ready to pay them Jizya taxes on time and with a big smile on their faces. These are all things that obedient infidels will be required to do in the new EU caliphate. And they better not forget what Merkel told them about Islam being peaceful, loving and above all tolerant!  

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Tue, 08/22/2017 - 16:04 Permalink

African migrants interviewed by Al Jazeera state that they are traveling to Europe from oil rich Nigeria and the mineral rich Congo because they have no money, no food, and no work and that their friends who migrated to Europe told them that life in Europe is good. International predatory corporations and banking in addition to George Sorros, and Angela Merkel are behind this. EU members are forced to appease German financial interests. The middle East,  Africa even more so are resource rich, yet, as the result of international meddling installing corrput puppet regimes in addition to predatory international corporations including banks, this man made crisis is occurring. Russ Feingold was sent to Africa by Obama to study water.  We have heard no reports from his diplomacy in Africa. http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/inthefield/2015/06/af… http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/10/mapping-africa-nat… http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/specialseries/2016/10/shadow-war-sa… https://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&client=ms-android-sprint-us&sour…:

Kendle C Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:52 Permalink

Hey Goldman, and you, Lloyd BankFeind, WTF are you doing? You're doing studies on refugee populations displaced by wars you finance and profit by. Trying to figure a way to make loans to the governments receiving the dispossessed? Are you looking for system breakdowns to preposition your economic hit men to buy up assets and feed the victims to the IMF or World Bank, Basel, Rothschilds? This is not "banking" it is the guts and inner workings of the actual "Darkstate" and global elite. By "elite' I don't mean superior, I mean blood sucking murdering infiltrating insider assholes one and all. Fuck you and these numbers, dicks!

Stanelli Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:50 Permalink

Solidarity may only mean sending troops to help guard their borders. If they're not willing to help themselves and wish to replace their population with Africans, then fuck them, let them do it, but going into the abyss with them is pure stupidity.

Stanelli Tue, 08/22/2017 - 15:53 Permalink

African immigration won't solve Italian's demographic problem. It won't be THEIR children. This immigration will only solve African problem with habitat for THEIR children.

surf@jm Tue, 08/22/2017 - 16:10 Permalink

New arrivals will, of course form new criminal organized crime gangs, that will end up competing with the existing organized crime gangs....The result, of course will be bloodshed, and gangland wars for territory, just like Mexico, and other places....It will soon look like Sarajevo, with bodies in the streets, and government nowhere to be found.....Don`t believe it?........Ever heard of Chicago?.....

fatsacca Tue, 08/22/2017 - 16:19 Permalink

The Italians in my old neighborhood wouldn't have put up with shit for a minute. But then they were really Sicilians and they only barely tolerated us Irish.

Omen IV fatsacca Tue, 08/22/2017 - 17:18 Permalink

yes all true - no tolerance - with the Sicilians - there is a deal here if the Italian politicians were honest - all you have to do to overcome EU migration laws is to turn over the problem to Cosa Nostra in return for the conduit for certain products to europe exclusivelyevery black  on the street would disappear in less than 1 year with the locals providing the tweets on every location - no fuss no muss - every boat captain would not come near Italy or face the elimination of his extended family - every apartment owner would have the same status as a boat captainproblem solved for 100 years ---- for free! Lucky Luciano did that deal with FDR in 41' to keep the docks open in return for 20 years of no issues

In reply to by fatsacca

Batman11 Tue, 08/22/2017 - 16:22 Permalink

austerity + mass immigration + severe recession + mass youth unemployment = Golden Dawn This is the answer the equation gives in Greece.Let's try Italy.