US Economic Data Has Never Done This Before

While 'hope'-strewn survey data (see today's Chicago PMI) are staging a self-reinforcing resurgence in the last week or two, 'hard' economic data (that doesn't rely on the emotional responses of humans) has collapsed to its weakest since Feb 2009.

This is the 6th monthly drop in 'hard' economic data in a row, something that has never happened before, pushing the spread between 'hope' and 'reality' to a record high.


Of course, for now, stocks and 'soft' survey data remain locked in a tight mutually reinforcing uptrend of hope - ignoring reality...


Kafir Goyim Vlad the Inhaler Fri, 09/29/2017 - 17:09 Permalink

I agree with you that as copper and zinc processing becomes cheaper, you can recover gold and silver even more efficiently from those mines.  I also agree that increased oil prices should effect gold and silver prices, just like it effects food and other commodity prices.  So on one hand, AU and AG would rise with oil price, while on the other hand, they would drop with increased processing efficiency.But I suspect that for BTC, AU, and AG, the printing of fiat will have more of an impact on price than anything else.

In reply to by Vlad the Inhaler

runningman18 Kafir Goyim Fri, 09/29/2017 - 16:34 Permalink

Bitcoin is a fantasy backed by nothing other than perception and fad.  Anyone can make a crytptocurrency out of thin air and apply artificial scarcity to it just like bitcoin, which means there really is no scarcity to cryptocurrencies.  If it is not backed by something tangible, it is not a viable currency.  Bitcoin's "value" is based on percieved demand rather than real demand.  Meaning - tulip mania.    

In reply to by Kafir Goyim

lester1 Fri, 09/29/2017 - 15:33 Permalink

The Federal Reserve has been covertly buying stocks since August 2015. They have basically went full retard because they are unaudited and can get away with manipulating all markets. Yellen hates Trump and wants him to fail. Crashing the stock market is tempting..But keeping stocks propped up to protect the asset prices of the wealthy elites is more far important.

johand inmywallet Fri, 09/29/2017 - 15:33 Permalink

Yup, real world is I made more money in 2000 than I do know, especially if I had a job. The pay rate for my specialized filed was much better in 2000 than it is now, sucks. Maybe I should sell everything I own and buy 10 shares of Amazon!!

The Duke of Ne… Fri, 09/29/2017 - 17:24 Permalink

The FED can't allow the stock markets to have a normal correction going into balance sheet reduction - or they be presed to alter their plans ... so FED proxies are in the market selling the VIX and buying futures to keep the Casino running.   

TGDavis Fri, 09/29/2017 - 18:36 Permalink

It would help if the author explained what "hard" economic data is.  Should we know this? Then he says that a six month in a row drop has never happened before,  yet shows a chart that contains a 13 month in a row drop.  Am I missing something or am I the stupid one?