WTI/RBOB prices recovered from their drop after API reported a big surprise gasoline build overnight ahead of the DOE data which showed a major crude draw (and smaller than API-reported build in gasoline). Along with no change in production, this sparked buying in both WTI/RBOB as the kneejerk reaction.
- Crude -4.079mm (-500k exp)
- Cushing +2.048mm (+1.8mm exp) - biggest build since March
- Gasoline +4.19mm (+1mm exp) - biggest build since Jan
- Distillates -584k
- Crude -6.023mm (-500k exp) - biggest draw since August
- Cushing +1.525mm (+1.8mm exp) - biggest build since March
- Gasoline +1.644mm (+1mm exp) - biggest build since August
- Distillates -2.606mm
Major draw in crude (considerably larger than API and expectations) is dominating the headlines but the continued restocking in Cushing and another big build in gasoline is likely weighing on prices
However, as a reminder, Crude-oil inventories remain bloated at more than 24% above the five-year average, with production and exports recovering. Refined-product markets are tighter heading into winter.
Notably, implied demand slumped in the last week...
Last week saw the rig count rise but US crude production was unchanged for the Lower 48, having rebounded from the effects of Harvey
Total U.S. exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products surged last week above 7 million barrels a day, a hefty 1 million barrels a day higher than the previous week -- and, of course, an all-time high.
Both WTI and RBOB prices recovered their losses from API data overnight (but were sliding into the DOE print) with Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, noting that "the market is basically fretting another bearish report." But today's DOE reports offered enough to get the algos into buying mode, spiking prices initially...
Julian Lee, Bloomberg Oil Strategist, notes one thing to consider... The U.S. has wiped out 9 months of OPEC output cuts in just two weeks.
The 11 members of OPEC bound by the output deal cut their production in September by 1.041 million barrels a day from their combined reference production level.
The U.S. in the last two weeks - after recovering from the impact of Hurricane Harvey - boosted its crude oil exports by 1.056 million barrels a day.