How To Spot The Next Financial Crisis (Before It Spots You)

10 years on from the greatest financial crisis of a generation, The FT's David McWilliams asks (and answers in his usual graphic and witty manner), "have we learned any lessons?"

"These crises with massive bubbles followed by enormous busts are becoming more, not less, common.. with thanks to more and more debt driving more and more credit, making everything more and more unstable."

 

"Today, for example, markets have never been higher, yields have never been lower... welcome to the brave new world of return-free-risk... the slightest mistake from here and we've a long, long way to fall..."

 

"All over the world, lots and lots of allegedly clever people are working with highly complicated risk models what's going to be the trigger... recession in the US, rocket-man in North Korea, credit bubble in China, or what about a massive monetary mistake made by Central Banks anxious to end all this money-printing?"

 

"The truth is... nobody really knows.. so let's get back to basics..."

And that is where McWilliams begins to separate myths from reality and creates some rules of thumb to help spot the next financial crisis coming (spoiler alert: we are here)...