10 Years After The Last Market Peak, This Is How Assets Have Performed

As we pointed out yesterday, October 9 was a landmark day: it marked 10 years to the day since the pre-Global Financial Crisis peak in the S&P 500. How have various asset classes performed since then? That is the question that DB's Jim Reid set off to answer this morning in his latest edition of the "Early Morning Reid."

Here is what he found: to summarize in dollar terms, the S&P 500 (+102%) actually tops our list of 38 global assets even though this point 10 years ago was the local peak. This is followed by US HY (+85%) and 6 of the top 8 in dollar terms are credit assets. Gold (+74%) breaks up the top 8. 26 of the 38 assets are in positive total return territory since this point and 12 are in negative territory led by Greek equities (-85%), European Banks (-54%) with other major underperformers including Portuguese equities (-39%), Oil (-38%), FTSE-MIB (-34%), Bovespa (-33%), Russian Micex (-30%), Shanghai Comp (-18%) and the IBEX (-2%).

So although US equities and credit markets have shrugged off the impact of the crisis and have prospered, deep scars still remain especially for the European periphery and some EM equities (all dollar adjusted).

The chart showing the total return of key assets in USD terms is shown below...

... while the following table breaks down 10-year returns in local and USD-terms:

Comments

Government nee… Tue, 10/10/2017 - 10:20 Permalink

I view gold's performance as a proxy for the magnitude of the sham that is fractional banking, fiat currency, and QE.  If you adjust performance (downward) by the magnitude of gold's appreciation, I believe one can see the devastation current fiscal and monetary has wrought.

hooligan2009 Justin Case Tue, 10/10/2017 - 11:57 Permalink

help me out here..are you saying that even with the DJIA going from around 10,000 in 1999 to 22,500 now that, after adjusting for inflation over 18 years,that 1 million 1999 bucks invested in the dow in 1999 is not worth the nominal unadjusted for inflation number of 2,250,000 in 2017 dollars, but is actually worth only 200,000 in 1999 dollars?https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market 

In reply to by Justin Case

AlZo Tue, 10/10/2017 - 10:45 Permalink

Everything has crashed to dust in BTC termsPeople have been waiting for a crash the last 10 years but the crash has happened and is happening, you just have to reprice everything in BTC terms to see the obvious.Why intelligent people would still price anything in monkey money makes no sense. Humanity has evolved to a decentralized unit of account and there is no going back.

illuminatus AlZo Tue, 10/10/2017 - 12:21 Permalink

That's a nice dream of yours, but the assholes without a doubt will not roll over without kicking some serious ass. They have ways of fucking you and me that we can't even think of, and don't think for a minute they won't do it. Just look at the last hundred years if you need a reference.

In reply to by AlZo

tunetopper Tue, 10/10/2017 - 11:59 Permalink

 Here is a simple analysis that creates a meaningful trade idea(s) from the above .... Biggest Non-US Local Currency Winners:Brazil (no QE)Russia (no QE)UK (yes-QE) Why are we told to not trust Russia and Brazil, when their own local currencies allow local investors a great return without Quantitative Easing?

Bai Suzhen Tue, 10/10/2017 - 12:42 Permalink

I knew I shouldn't have listened when, once he'd finished, I asked the guy shining my shoes, "How about a tip?", and he leaned close and said in a low voice so no one could overhear, "Wheat.  It's the next big winner."

Chryoprase the Troll Tue, 10/10/2017 - 14:39 Permalink

Total bias on the results as it is referenced to the dollar. You might just as well have backed the dollar. Short gold long silver would be the natural play if markets weren't rigged.