Bill Blain: Is Today The Day?

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

“When Black Friday comes, I’ll stand by the door and catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor..”

I’m sorry, but this morning’s porridge isn’t fresh. It was slammed together yesterday afternoon. As you receive this I’ll be doing some showy-off stuff in the City. No freshly scribbled early morning porridge today – just this “warmed up in the micro-wave” pap. (Incidently, one of my favourite words is Poppity-Ping – Welsh for microwave. Don’t say you don’t learn something every day…)

If I write anything profound last night, it might well be mediocre by this morning..

But… today is the day… finally it has arrived. It’s time to suffer..

For the past couple of months, I’ve been confidently predicting October 12th as the day Global stock markets stagger, tumble and correct. It started as a little joke – my primary reason for picking October 12th was simply that it’s the day before a Friday the 13th.. meaning it’s a great day to really ruin everyone’s anticipation of the weekend!

Later I came to the conclusion Oct 12th is as good as any other day for a market correction – and its almost 30-years since the October Hurricane and the Black Monday Crash of 1987 (which I remember well), so why not October 12th.

Amusingly, I’m now being trolled on Zerohedge by oh so erudite Americans calling me all kinds of names for apparently getting it wrong. If I ever become an omnipotent god, the first thing I shall do is bestow the gifts of humour, wit and sarcasm on our cousins across the pond.

Lots of folk say there is not going to be a market correction. The global economy is moving in the right growth direction, and policies, politics, and corporate plans are all aligned for expansion. As a result, they think the markets are impervious to any sell-off. They might be right. They look at the numbers and conclude nothing can possibly go wrong. Perhaps they are right? Perhaps there are no volatility drivers any more, perhaps something has fundamentally changed about markets and perhaps the laws of mean reversion are no longer current?

They believe the waves of political shocks washing across markets are just noise – tittle tattle of no concern for markets.

If the crash/correction doesn’t happen today, I still think we’re going to get a market correction sometime soon!

When Donald Trump is promising us massive and sensible tax reform while simultaneously insulting all and sundry in his own party, when Europe is just so f*r**g European, Nobel Prize winners say they can’t understand why the markets are so high, when leading chartists are warning of Black Swann reversals, when top fund managers are saying they are no longer convinced, and even Astrologers are warning a change in the heavens spells a 13% correction on the Dow, you have to wonder.

Does it really matter anyway?

When the correction comes, and come it will, I shall have my buying boots ready. I saw a fascinating chart showing total returns since the Global Financial Crisis crash of 2007 in dollar terms. Guess what? The best returning asset, beating all others, was US Stocks.

On that happy note, back in the office this afternoon..


t0mmyBerg J S Bach Thu, 10/12/2017 - 10:15 Permalink

J S Bach: "This, of course, means there will be record highs today."I hope so.  This is a funny story.  I have been planning on punting a very large amount of short Spoos on this date for weeks.  And here is the day!.  But I am  doing it simply because Thursday October 11th, 2007 marked the intraday top of the market so that would equate to today for this year.  So I will be selling a huge number of contracts but on the close today.  With a very very tight stop..It will almost certainly NOT be the day though.  Prior to the October top in 2007 you had the quant breakdown and a sharp short decline in August as the underpinnings of the mortgage default mess started riplling through the system in a big way.  The news of problems had already started to surface at funds at Bear Stearns.  There is no comparable credit issue in the cards today.  That doesnt mean we cant have an irrational fall.  But the real default will be the US in a few years.  Of course we have institutions to put lipstick on that pig to make it LOOK like something else.  But the next REAL huge crisis is a sovereign one.

In reply to by J S Bach

mily Thu, 10/12/2017 - 08:43 Permalink

Yes Bill, I was thinking about your "prediction" this morning on my way to work at some shitty investement bank in London City, it's Oct, the 12th. The sky is blue but it's quiet, too quiet.../s

spastic_colon Thu, 10/12/2017 - 09:09 Permalink

this is what analysis has come to in the world of CB's..............keep flipping that coin.......some people are better with prose than they are with analysis.

Falconsixone Thu, 10/12/2017 - 08:45 Permalink

Check the jew satanic calendar. saysOct 13 - 30Preparation for all Hallows Eve, Samhain (Halloween)Abduction, holding and ceremonial preparation of individual for human sacrifice(13 -Backward Halloween Date) Oct 28-30 human sacrifice each day Majic 8 ball say "It is decidedly so"

Let it Go Thu, 10/12/2017 - 09:04 Permalink

I wish him luck with his call, however, timing a market collapse is no easy task. Currently, America and much of the world has been washed along on the momentum created by a wave of freshly printed money and low-interest rates.Auto sales have flourished because of super low-interest rates, and housing has also been pushed along by artificially low-interest rates that distort what might be called the natural laws of economic order. More thoughts below on why this might be a time for caution.Timing Market Top Or Collapse Is No Easy Tas

syzygysus Thu, 10/12/2017 - 09:06 Permalink

For some reason the old Steve Miller band came to mind when thinking about this market.Time keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin'Into the futureTime keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin'Into the futureI want to fly like an eagleTo the seaFly like an eagleLet my spirit carry meI want to fly like an eagleTill I'm freeOh, Lord, through the revolutionFeed the babiesWho don't have enough to eatShoe the childrenWith no shoes on their feetHouse the peopleLivin' in the streetOh, oh, there's a solution

mb Thu, 10/12/2017 - 09:23 Permalink

The market is rigged so it wont crash. So please explain how it will..... what used to matter...clearly doesnt anymore.  Not for last 10 yrs for sure.  Proof is there.  

sunny Thu, 10/12/2017 - 10:02 Permalink

The whole premise of this article is faulty.  Pundits should never call for a financial collapse unless the date is at least 2 quarters into the future.  Been like that since late 2009.  That way everyone forgets and you get to call for another crisis 2 quarters in the future and once again get lots of headlines.  Calling for a collapse in hours and not quarters is just silly.