Here Is Another Thing "The Market Has Never Done Before"

In this historic, for global markets, year we are fast running out of things "the market has never done before."

For today's entry we go to Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid who looks at the S&P's performance in the month of October, and writes that the broad index, which ended the supposedly most volatile month of the year 2.33% higher (with the lowest October realized vol on record) finished with a positive total return, meaning that the index has now seen a positive total return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time that this has happened in the 90 years Deutsche Bank has data for. It's not just 2017, however, becase as Reid notes, "if you go beyond the calendar year end, October now marks the 12th positive month in succession which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936." In other words, the S&P has not had a single month of negative total returns since Trump was elected almost exactly one year ago.

While there is no stopping the euphoria, Reid has a word of caution:

The S&P's total return dipped 3.6% and 7.7% respectively in the subsequent month when these runs ended. This record run is coinciding with volatility back down towards the near record lows seen in the Summer before the North Korean situation escalated. Not only has 2017 seen such low volatility on measures such as the VIX but it has also seen a remarkable consistency of positive returns in US equity markets.

And then this: "Will 2017 be the first year to complete the full set of positive monthly S&P 500 returns? History suggest that these times are the exception rather than the norm so enjoy it while it lasts."


skbull44 Wed, 11/01/2017 - 07:56 Permalink

To infinity, and beyond! 
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Jtrillian Wed, 11/01/2017 - 08:00 Permalink

You are most welcome. Love,The Central BanksPeople will continue to celebrate these market highs until they realize they can no longer afford a loaf of bread. 

yogibear Wed, 11/01/2017 - 08:07 Permalink

LOL, circle-jerk central bank debt buying with infinte printing now.They can't stop because they know how bad it can get.So endless wealth stealing by devaluation is the plan. 

Byrond Wed, 11/01/2017 - 08:10 Permalink

Everything depends entirely on stocks. They can keep fudging the employment data and whatnot to keep them soaring, but not for too much longer. 

brushhog Wed, 11/01/2017 - 08:24 Permalink

I hate articles "this never happened before" or "the last time this happened...THAT happened" Its meaningless unless you can logically connect cause and effect. Its like reading a horoscope

sunny Wed, 11/01/2017 - 09:32 Permalink

There's one more thing the US markets have never done before, they've never failed to crash, they've never just kept going up.  It has happened in other countries, Germany in the early 1920's and Zimbabwe.  In both cases the markets just kept going up and up thanks to CB intervention.  Just saying.

buzzsaw99 Wed, 11/01/2017 - 09:57 Permalink

one of these days the central banks will own it all.  they will buy and sell a little amongst themselves every day while reid and his ilk say:  the market did this and the market did that yesterday.  the market hasn't moved more than 0.1% in a day in over nine hundred trading days now...