The Savings Rate Conundrum

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The economy is booming.

Employment is at decade lows.

Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years.

The stock market is at record highs and climbing.

Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade.

Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

What’s not to love?

I just have one question. If things are so good, then why is America’s saving rate posting such a sharp decline?

The answer is not surprising. Despite the bullish economic optics, the reality for the majority of Americans is they simply have not yet recovered from the financial crisis. As the chart below shows, while savings spiked during the financial crisis, the rising cost of living for the bottom 80% has outpaced the median level of “disposable income” for that same group. As a consequence, the inability to “save” has continued.

I discussed previously the problem of rising debt. Beginning in 1990, the gap between the “standard of living” and real disposable incomes went negative with the resultant “gap” filled through the use of debt. However, since the financial crisis, this has no longer been the case. I modified the previous chart with the savings rate which tells the same story, as the cost of living began outpacing incomes the difference came from savings, and a continuous increase in debt. Again, despite the temporary uptick in the savings rate following the financial crisis, the real cost of living continues to erode the middle class.

You can see the erosion of the savings rate more clearly when you look at the rate of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth as compared to debt growth. As spending and debt accelerated, the savings rate declined. More importantly, in 2000 the growth rate of debt sharply accelerated above PCE growth. This debt-fueled consumption, however, has not led to stronger rates of economic growth. 

Debt is a negative thing for the borrower. It has been known to be such a thing even in biblical times as quoted in Proverbs 22:7:

“The borrower is the slave to the lender.”

Debt acts as a “cancer” on an individual’s wealth as it siphons potential savings from income as those funds are diverted to debt service. Rising levels of debt means rising levels of debt service which reduces actual disposable personal incomes that could be saved or reinvested back into the economy.

The mirage of consumer wealth has been a function of surging debt levels. “Wealth” is not borrowed but “saved” and as shown in the chart below, this is a lesson that too few individuals have learned.

The reality is that since “savings” are the cornerstone of economic growth longer-term, as savings provide for productive investment and lending, it should be of NO surprise that, as shown in the next chart, there is a very high correlation between the savings rate, GDP, and PCE.

While many continue to suggest that “debt is not a problem,” the evidence is pretty clear that rising debt levels have impeded economic growth, savings, and consumption since slanting sharply upwards beginning in 1980.

Correlation or causation? You decide.

The chart above is extremely noisy so I have created a composite index below of inflation (CPI), GDP, Wages and the Savings Rate. I then compared that composite index to both interest rates and the S&P 500.

What you find, unsurprisingly, is that declines in the composite index also correspond with declines in both rates and equity prices. The most recent decline resulted in the near 20% sell-off in late 2015 and early 2016. The recent uptick in equities and the index follow on the heels of both the massive European and Swiss National Bank’s buying sprees and the “Trump bounce.”

The fall in the savings rate, combined with the subsequent rise in debt, is suggesting there is more weakness within the economy that headline data would suggest.

Currently, there are clear signs of stress emerging from credit. Commercial lending has taken a sharp dive as delinquencies have risen. These are both signs of a late stage economic expansion and a weakening environment. With savings rates weak, the real-world inflationary pressures of food, energy, medical and utilities have consumed more of discretionary incomes. This is why dependency on social support systems now comprise a record level of disposable incomes.

“Without government largesse, many individuals would literally be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government ‘welfare’ programs and current levels to date. The black line represents the sum of the underlying sub-components.  While unemployment insurance has tapered off after its sharp rise post the financial crisis, social security, Medicaid, Veterans’ benefits and other social benefits have continued to rise.

 

Importantly, for the average person, these social benefits are critical to their survival as they make up more than 22% of real disposable personal incomes. With 1/5 of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising that the economy continues to struggle as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.”

It is hard to make the claim the economy is on the verge of acceleration with the underlying dynamics of savings and debt suggesting a more dire backdrop.

With the average American still living well beyond their means, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired at lower levels as savings continue to be diverted from productive investment into debt service. Furthermore, with the Federal Reserve and the Administration actively engaged in creating an artificial housing recovery, and wealth effect from increasing asset prices, it is likely that another bubble is being created.

This has never ended well.

The concern is that without a reversion of debt to more sustainable levels the attainment of stronger, and more importantly, self-sustaining economic growth could be far more elusive than currently imagined.

This isn’t just about the “baby boomers,” either. Millennials are haunted by the same problems, with 40%-ish unemployed, or underemployed, and living back home with parents. In turn, parents are now part of the “sandwich generation” that are caught between taking care of kids and elderly parents. The rise in medical costs and health care goes unabated consuming more of their incomes.

As I stated previously:

“Hopefully, the recent upticks in the economic data are more than just the temporary “restocking cycles” we have seen repeatedly over the last 8-years. Hopefully, the current Administration will achieve some part of their legislative agenda to help boost economic growth. Hopefully, international economies can continue their growth trends as they account for 40% of corporate profits. Hopefully, an economic cycle that is already the 3rd longest in history with the lowest annual growth rate, can continue indefinitely into the future.”

But that is still an awful lot of hoping.

Comments

TBT or not TBT 847328_3527 Thu, 11/02/2017 - 12:21 Permalink

The media and schools have hammered into them that spending is good for the economy.   Same sort of message incidentally a diabolical figure would whisper to the tragic figure it in a traditional story.  The media.and academia and the left also say do what feels good.  So embrace your freak.   Diversity is double plus good.  Traditional prudence is out the window.  Square. 

In reply to by 847328_3527

ToSoft4Truth aliens is here Thu, 11/02/2017 - 11:56 Permalink

The problem is when they get bailed out. Say you save up 100K and GM goes tits up.  You plan on buying a factory for your 100K.  Then someone like Bush bails them out.  Not only did you get screwed out of a factory that is rightfully yours, the buying power of your 100K is diluted while your fellow countrypeeps cheer your financial doom.  "It's for the jobs..."  Bring back Debtor's Prisons. 

In reply to by aliens is here

broke-but-hopeful aliens is here Thu, 11/02/2017 - 12:07 Permalink

I sort of agree.  Every person or family has to think of their own survival or future themselves, don't expect others or government to bail them out.  We lived at or below our means, especially in the early years while having and raising the kids.  We didn't have rich relatives to help so my wife and I both worked.  Even then we participated in 401k or deferred income savings plans.  We put in money as saving with pre-tax money was a big break.  Doing that out whole work life has paid off now that we are retired.  We never lived high and now retirement and grandkids is the sweet life!

In reply to by aliens is here

Bryan Thu, 11/02/2017 - 11:51 Permalink

Graphs and charts and graphs and analysis and graphs and explanations and blah blah blah.  None of it really explains what's going on under the hood.

TeethVillage88s Thu, 11/02/2017 - 12:13 Permalink

But, But... they Hypothicate, Rehypothicate in London,... they leverage 1:40 as of 2008.

How could measly 9 Trillion create the behemoth of the USA Markets?

Total Savings Deposits at all Depository Institutions (WSAVNS)
9,192.4 Billions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Oct 26, 2017
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSAVNS

- $2-4 Quadrillion USD Denominated Derivatives
- $700 Trillion Systemically Important Derivatives
- $15 Trillion MZM Money Supply, MZM Broadest Measure?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MZMNS

- $75 Trillion in Current Debt & Liabilities
- $20 Trillion in Federal Debt
- $4 Trillion Annual Federal Budget
- $1 Trillion a year for MIC, DHS
- $1.5 Trillion for Medicare & Medicaid
- $1 Trillion a year for Social Security
- $40 Trillion in Stocks/Equities
- $4.7 trillion in US 401(k) plans
- $80 Trillion in Bond Market
- $70 Billion a year in Welfare
- 41 Million people on Welfare
- 100 Million US People not working
- 8 Million Elderly on Adult Care Welfare/SSI
- Pension Problems... $1 Trillion?
- Bankrupt cities and states, PR, IL, Chicago, Detroit, Hartford
- So we are becoming a PIIGS type country which will sell our own birth right to the Banks eventually

Negative - 780 Billion Trade Balance

Lance, BABY!

How could Savings actually Create the US Markets? Doesn't make Sense!

silverserfer LawsofPhysics Thu, 11/02/2017 - 12:30 Permalink

it kills me how easy it is for people to still be able to save money by buying PM's. It really is the only way to be free. Yes so few do. And its not becasue Im hoping for the price to go up. Im happy with the price staying consistant. That is called saving without the expectation of gains. Just preservation of money earned thru labor.

In reply to by LawsofPhysics

Number 9 silverserfer Thu, 11/02/2017 - 12:57 Permalink

but you want to know what your perceived freedom really is?
it is anchors..
i cant do what i want, go where i want, and just say fvkit and live in a tree in the woods b/c i spent my entire life enslaving myself to material possessions.
so, now it is to the point if i just give it all away or throw it in the dump etc is an acknowledgement that i was wrong and fooled by that fvkin alex jones.

In reply to by silverserfer

tion Number 9 Thu, 11/02/2017 - 13:23 Permalink

Many rural localities with lots of open acreage check for new/unpermitted buildings via satellite, usually over 100 sq ft or so has to be permitted.  But you could in theory build under a dense grove of evergreens not visible from the road.  I want try my hand at building an expandable dirt/cobb camp this summer, seems like it could be a lot of fun :)

In reply to by Number 9

Number 9 tion Thu, 11/02/2017 - 13:50 Permalink

i have a bugout location all set aside in a mountain range accessible by only one road with a gate and i have the key,,
tons of deer, moose elk and even those fvkin grizzly bears but if shit really goes south it is 2 hours away.. going hunting there the 10th..

In reply to by tion