It’s easy to get lost in all things Middle East, especially concerning the chaotic events that unfolded over the weekend in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
Three days after the most stunning purge in recent Saudi history - which was really a countercoup, that led to the arrest of dozen of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen to further the control of the Kingdom - Saudi Arabia called Yemen’s missile launch on Riyadh an ‘act of war’ by Iran, and also played victim by saying Lebanon has declared war against the Kingdom.
How to make sense of this all?
An author on twitter by the handle Black Pigeon Speaks beautifully outlines today’s events in an easy to understand video titled: PAX AMERICANA, PetroDollar & the Coming CRISIS in the GULF…
The author of the video focuses on the Middle East and says a perfect storm is gathering upon the horizon, as the whole world is changing and the only way to change it for the better is to understand the world around you.
The video opens up with a brief understanding of the stunning purge in Saudi Arabia and how it has cleared any potential obstacles for King Salman’s son ascension to the throne.
This was done by a widespread arrest of royals, ministers and businessmen who have large sums of money and control key parts of the economy and parts of the military. Such an unorthodox move is bound to force internal conflict with-in the country that could very well spillover.
In the next section, the author says “this comes all at a time of seeming change for the Kingdom”. Allowing women to drive was merely a window dressing event and the real issue is the country’s economic transition away from oil. The problem resides around the world’s most generous social welfare systems of which most citizens do not work. The money transfer from state to citizens is similar to the United States social programs, but the objective in Saudi Arabia has been to sedate the populace from expressing any collective opposition to the kingdom. It is easy to understand how fragile the house of Saud really is….
Moreover as what was highlighted by the recent arm sales via the Trump administration. The country is armed with the most technological weapons in the world, as it has completely abandoned the line of succession through a stunning weekend purge.
The idea that Saudi Arabia is trying to cement a new era for the kingdom at the expense of those who have been purged could pose serious problems. And how the author puts it, “you have a recipe for civil war– for two reasons:
- Those who have been purged will claim they’ve a legitimate claim to power. These individuals are very wealthy and have the means to buy mercenary armies to fight for their claim
- Breakdown of the social welfare program
The outlook for Saudi Arabia is bleak and in our view, the conditions are perfect for a civil war. The probability of an expansionist war also increases as the kingdom has Iran and Lebanon in its crosshairs.