She's Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year

For the second consecutive time in two years, La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is back and she means business. New data from Climate.gov indicates La Niña conditions have formed just in time for winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña after analyzing October ocean temperatures cooling along the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is often declared when sea surface temperatures in the region (just stated) decline by 0.5 degrees Celsius.

John Morales‏, Chief Meteorologist WTVJ NBC-6 Miami, shows the progression of cool water over the equatorial Pacific Ocean responsible for La Niña formation.

The cooler waters have an influence on atmospheric conditions by decreasing evaporation in the tropics, which is a major driver of global weather.

According to the Weather Channel,

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center.

 

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center /NCEP/NWS Full Report: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with values near -0.5° C during the past week in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperatures remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions.

 

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday November 16th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

La Niña weather phenomenon easily explained:

Ben Noll, Meteorologist, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, compares the equatorial sea-surface temperatures in 2016 and 2017. His findings indicate 2017 waters “not as large farther west” when compared with 2016. Basically he validates NOAA’s “weaker La Niña” claim...

NOAA’s winter weather outlook indicates normal participation for the mid-tier of the United States. The southern-tier is forecasted to see much drier conditions. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region and Northwest of the United States appear to have much wetter conditions.

Temperature outlooks for this winter include at-least 2/3 of the United States well above average. Below average to normal in regions, such as the Great Lakes region and Northwest.

Bottomline: What do weather forecasters and Dennis Gartman both have in common?... Well you guessed it– terrible forecasting...

Comments

Gap Admirer JusticeTBuford Sat, 11/11/2017 - 21:00 Permalink

I'm just glad the the climate models, which do not match historical data by the way, can precisely predict what will happen with our climate 50 years from now.  The models even say if taxes are dramatically raised by the government and individual freedom taken away by that same government, Earth's temperature will stabilize to the "correct" temperatures.Science says so.  If you don't believe it you're a science denier.

In reply to by JusticeTBuford

Manthong Fishkiller Sat, 11/11/2017 - 22:21 Permalink

 
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Nina… Nino….  Mas o menas weather will happen. …and anything that freezes New York is a good thing.   Actually, it is Hillary’s cold, dark, dry nether regions that sucks the warmth out of the atmosphere there..   ..glad she is not back in Park Ridge, Il.

In reply to by Fishkiller

Laowei Gweilo Manthong Sat, 11/11/2017 - 22:29 Permalink

I believe it.BC, Canada got snow early as fuck this year... earliest in a couple decades, it feels like.even last year with confirmed La Nina, lower mainland didn't get snow until early-mid December. 17th for downtown by the ocean, IIRC.broader lower mainland (within an hour of downtown but a bit above sea level) got snow first few days of Nov :O wtf. think I only ever saw Halloween twice and not since the 80s o.0that said, it's been much dryer than last year. VAN last year got 32 days of rain or total cloud overcast in something like 35 days. so far within Fall has been super dry compared to that, a few days of hard rain aside.

In reply to by Manthong

Laowei Gweilo afronaut Sun, 11/12/2017 - 21:19 Permalink

I think probably from the first half of the year though, the end of La Nina... That said, my impression could be skewed by last Fall. I.e., even though it feels dry compared to crazy last Fall, it's still wet vs the average.  As I'm sure your stats are right; just I wonder maybe it's an average fall but anually it's above average cuz of Jan-June rained like crazy.

In reply to by afronaut

johnhornby Gap Admirer Sun, 11/12/2017 - 10:15 Permalink

Just once I would like to see a public discussion where someone asks one of the Climate Change prophets exactly what data set or event it would take to convince them that man is not significantly affecting long term climate patterns.  I predict if they did, they would either be told the science is settled and therefore that is a pointless question, or they would not provide a definative answer.  That is the test.  If they can't define a metric that disproves their theory, then their theory also can't be taken as fact.  The bottom line is for some at least, the whole climate change thing is being used as a means to an end state of governance.  The other tell is how little discussion is entertained regarding the option of not trying to stop climate change (assuming we know it is coming soon), but to deal with the consequences.  Regardless of the scientific merits of the debate, this is clearly being driven by a political agenda.  We can still have electric cars and do our best to maintain a clean environment, etc. without the political agenda and the mocking of anyone that doesn't fall in line with said.

In reply to by Gap Admirer