WTI/RBOB Spike On OPEC Headlines After Bearish Inventory/Production Data

Update: WTI/RBOB was fading after DOE data but then Kuwait dropped the following meaningless headline: OPEC JMMC RECOMMENDS EXTENSION, DIDN'T FINALIZE DURATION. And the algos took over...

*  *  *

Last night's API-reported surprise crude build sparked selling that not even Russia/Saudi jawboning could rescue, but DOE data showed the exact opposite with a big crude draw and even bigger gasoline draw. Added to a new record high in US crude production and RBOB is fading and WTI is not rallying.

As Bloomberg reports, the U.S. has proven at least one thing this year with its expansion of crude and products exports: we are becoming more energy independent than ever before.

Last week net imports of all crude and refined products dipped to a new record low.

That's coupled with record-high gasoline exports, a truly spectacular sea change in our world's oil flows.

API

  • Crude +1.82mm (-2.95mm exp)
  • Cushing -3.178mm - most since Sept 2009
  • Gasoline -1.529mm (+1.2mm exp)
  • Distillates +2.696mm (+200k exp) - biggest since July

DOE

  • Crude -3.43mm (-2.95mm exp)
  • Cushing -2.914mm - biggest draw since Sept 2009
  • Gasoline +3.63mm (+1.2mm exp) - biggest build since July
  • Distillates  (+200k exp) - biggest buils since Jan

DOE data showed the exact reverse of API with big surprise draw in crude and build in gasoline... Additionally Cushing saw the biggest destocking since Sept 2009 last week...

US crude production rose 24k b/d - to a new record high...

Gasoline exports hit a record high...

 

WTI was lower and RBOB higher heading into the DOE data but the trend reversed after on the surprise bearish product builds...

Comments

LawsofPhysics Wed, 11/29/2017 - 10:54 Permalink

Again, trying to predict or even discuss the "price" of anything in the absence of a mechanism for true price discovery is a fool's errand.Ask yourself, is oil useful (has real value) or not?in the meantime..."Full Faith and Credit"same as it ever was! 

Seasmoke Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:24 Permalink

I have seen this exact day of yo yo moves and contradictory headlines 100 times now in past 7 years. It's all bullshit !!!! ZeroHedge may not be around much longer if this continues. I'm sorry to say. We are all wasting our fucking time here.

Dukes Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:28 Permalink

Record Low ImportsRecord High Exports And WTI is rising because of a non-substantive headline? What more do you need to know? Shut this shitshow down ASAP.  Remove electronic trading.Pare back to an actual bid/ask matchmaking system that reduces/mitigates manipulation.  You'll never get rid of it completely. 

Sapere aude Wed, 11/29/2017 - 17:38 Permalink

But its worth remembering that the 4,000,000bbls of shale oil is all produced making substantial losses, subsidised by the Fed.Not one of the companies is making a profit on shale oil and never did even at $100.Any idiot can produce something for more cost than they receive in selling it.Massive losses on oil services companies too. The CEO's all talk the talk about profit oil at $40 but their accounts show a completely different story, one of loss and increased debt. "Observers are beginning to note that the US shale oil industry, which is being touted as the route to energy independence, is nothing more than a giant Ponzi scheme that consistently loses money no matter the price of oil. US shale oil companies have collectively lost money from 2008 through 2016 no matter what the price of oil was. Production from shale oil wells depleted by approximately 85 percent in three years leaving little behind for multi-million dollar investments. Despite the hype about new efficiencies, the 60 largest shale oil firms collectively have been losing about $9 billion per quarter for the last five years and with the well-head price of shale oil still running about $40 a barrel, it is doubtful the situation will get better in the near term." REUTERS"Through the first seven months, U.S. oilfield service companies filed for bankruptcy owing $16.4 billion, compared with $13.5 billion in total debt for all of last year. There were 33 oilfield service bankruptcies through July, compared with 46 filings in the same period last year, according to the law firm."