Trump Trade Kills Gold - Again

 The Time for Action in Gold is Near

an update of previous post entitled : 'Gold is in a Bear Leg..with an $1800 Target' | Zero Hedge

The death of hope enables freedom to be responsible for your own actions. Hope is merely the flip side of denial. Be prepared or blame the gods for your misery. 

Originally posted By Soren K. Group on marketslant.com

Yesterday we posted an article noting the Trump Trade’s birth  was responsible in part for the 2016 EOY swoon. We also noted that the tax bill was a likely reignition of that trump trade and warned that gold could succumb to it. We also noted that of yet “gold was hanging tough”. Trump Trade in stocks and Gold (post tax bill momentum on right). Charts here 

Stocks post election and during the tax bill process:

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Gold during the same periods before yesterday:

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Kiss of Death

Yesterday killed that potentially. Markets seemed to discount even more the Tax Bill ratification. 

Our prescience is not a happy event as far as our macro position goes, but it does make all the more real our story last week called “Gold is on a Bear Trend with a $1700 Target”  

So here we are and new things are now on our radar.Blame the Tax bill if you like.  But an actionable  decision will be upon gold traders/ investors soon. 

Here’s where we stand now:

If you have interest in either buying gold or selling what you have the time is now to prepare for the conditions that will trigger your decision to buy, add, sell, or short Gold. We have been saying that the macro buy signal put us into a long position. We have also said repeatedly we are swing-trading from the short side looking to reassess what action to take should certain levels be penetrated on the downside or upside.

Those levels are dynamic but center on the following areas:

1- Fund Finder MA- which has Gold as a long with 6-12 month holding period provided it does not settle below $1263 at end of (now) December (yellow line)

This got us long last month. Chart here 

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2- VBS- our proprietary momentum signal used primarily for short term and swing trading is setting up for a much longer term volatility expansion should we go below $1193 or above $1336. It alone does not suggest direction on trigger. It does reliably foretell expedited movement is coming soon when triggered.Chart here 

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3- Moor Analytics- Major Trend Lines with which we are not intimate but a respected analyst is, have been pointed out by Michael Moor. His work, independent of ours recently called for a large bull move higher over a 9-12 month period provided certain lows held. 

“The break ( and sustaining) above here projects this upward $172 minimum, $491 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months.”

This independently corroborated both our macro reason and VBS alert should gold trigger one. Now, after the previous day's sell-off, he gives an early cause for concern in our own systems. Simply put; Michael’s lows did not hold. See chart below. Accurate, not precise as we are drawing from the road

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Currently:

According to Michael, Gold has broken a strong formation that underpinned Weekly support.This he says, puts the Gold bull-call on hold but does not negate it. 

The formation being broken to him indicates a further 19 to 97 dollar drop is on the menu for gold. The only thing that negates this would be strong activity above $1274 on a weekly basis that lead us up to $1300 quickly. This would then reignite the Macro Bull scenario of $1400 to $1800 he reported last month. 

 

Take-Away:

Essentially one can say be short below $1274 on the weekly and flat to long above it depending on your risk, time frame and tolerance for volatility. Or like us, you can stay long macro with an exit on a December settlement below $1282 and continue to day trade from the short side hoping to lessen your macro cost basis while keeping your finger on the pulse come the real event like if a major dip or re-rally would occur. Whether those are buy orsell decisions depends on the individual.

 

To that we’d add:

The VBS says there will be volatility below $1192. We’d like to be in a position to buy physical averaging down if that happens. To do that we’d have to be out (or have hedged) our macro longs long before then. 

Which way gold goes if $1192 is touched is not known, but a decision should be made to buy or sell, or as we may likely do, buy straddles or hedged put spreads the “secret weapon of the Bull”. Just have your levels now and do not hope for divine intervention as the intro quote stated

Original article HERE

Good Luck

Comments

Osmium Wed, 12/06/2017 - 17:53 Permalink

The formation being broken to him indicates a further 19 to 97 dollar drop is on the menu for gold. The only thing that negates this would be strong activity above $1274 on a weekly basis that lead us up to $1300 quickly. This would then reignite the Macro Bull scenario of $1400 to $1800 he reported last month.  Gold could go down, but it could go up.  Got it, thanks!

SILVERGEDDON Wed, 12/06/2017 - 17:57 Permalink

Gold is real. 5000 years of monetary reality real. That fact never changes. Only the relationship to fiat funny money changes, so that gold still holds its traditional value relative to bullshit paper. Gold, silver, paper, electrons. Which ones are safest for storage of wealth long term ? Choose wisely.  

Pearson365 Wed, 12/06/2017 - 18:01 Permalink

When people talk about people who are optimistic about gold, they call them ‘gold bugs.’ A bug is an insect. I don’t call equity bugs ‘cockroaches.’ Do you understand? There is already a negative connotation with the expression of ‘gold bug.’ – Marc Faber

Memedada Seasmoke Thu, 12/07/2017 - 04:31 Permalink

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And only the indoctrinated serfs of USA can be surprised that a fiat-billionaire (i.e. a pawn/spawn of the system) could represent any form of positive change. Damn, people are easily fooled.

In reply to by Seasmoke

new game Wed, 12/06/2017 - 18:15 Permalink

fuk it all, gold, trump, bitchez, the dollar, dow bazillion and all the hang ons to a failed state of affairs called merika the land of freeloaders...not in a good mood...sorry bitchez...

Memedada meterman Thu, 12/07/2017 - 04:34 Permalink

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If you’re in gold or silver for fiat gains you’re an idiot. Gold and silver will carry value from the current Ponzi-scheme (fiat) to the next paradigm. That is to sell your gold/silver (BTC) in the current paradigm you’ve understood nothing (or you’re in a liquidity-problem – only excuse).

In reply to by meterman

OverTheHedge Ban KKiller Thu, 12/07/2017 - 00:02 Permalink

If you want to make billions of dollars overnight, buy bitcoin. If you want a portion of your wealth outside the system, where it won't be nailed in, it won't be appropriated for the good of the nation, and it won't get smaller and smaller every day, by some bizarre automatic inflation system, own go!d. But I think that the last decade has confirmed that it won't make you rich.Fonestar was right all along. I think we should have a whip-round and buy him a card, apologising for not believing in him. Oh, and asking for money, obviously.I bumped into him the other day - https://raykevin.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/millionaire.jpg?w=1200 

In reply to by Ban KKiller

rex-lacrymarum Wed, 12/06/2017 - 19:02 Permalink

Just buy the dips...  no-one is interested in gold right now because the macro-economic fundamentals are currently gold bearish, but the metal is actually stronger than it "should" be, which by itself is a longer term bullish sign (it indicates that the macro backdrop is likely to change dramatically in the not-too-distant future). 

Clock Crasher Wed, 12/06/2017 - 19:20 Permalink

Pick a fucking side and stand by your convictions you fucking coward!Gold is a hedge against hyperinflation.  It is also a lottery ticket. It is not something you trade in and out of because in the day to day week to week trading Satan himself sells naked billions of contracts first thing after breakfast. Go fuck yourself. 

Kefeer Wed, 12/06/2017 - 19:32 Permalink

Gold and silver always dip in December - nothing new until the reset takes place and the indication of the progress is in BitCOiN. The reset must be getting nearer, like at the door if the mechanisms are in place to push an implosion.  Whenever these bankers have their block-chain currencies ready to go, then the green light is on...hell breaks loose and perhaps war at the same time.  Credit freezesand lines at food and fuel begins and doesn't end for months.The NWO economics/banking will be digital currency, thus the push for more debt and cashless society.  It is coming and it was predicted many hundreds of years ago.I suspect some major world events, life changing, are on the horizon.  When this petro-dollar ship sinks it will be an event with carnage like never seen before.  The large banking institutions and governments are stock piling what?  GOLD

Code Duello Silver Savior Wed, 12/06/2017 - 22:24 Permalink

We do not know who "Vince Lanci" is  but he is obviously not a competent market analyst - nor are his sources.  There is no way that a grounded analyst can make an intermediate-term, bear market secondary, call for a gold move from $1270 to $1800 and then waffle, rescind, or nullify that call within a couple-week period.  "Lanci" is a phoney at best, a charlatan at worst. [Question for "Lanci" or his affiliates:  do you even recognize the term "secondary" as regards market analysis?]The market relevant facts about gold prices are these:  in 2011 the market topped out a 10-year advance that was contrary to typical commodities price cycles that normally top out in one- or maybe two-production cycles.  Gold prices have been declining for 6 years since that all-time 2011 high.  The thus far 6-year downside time frame implies, if not corroborates, that gold prices are in a significant cyclical decline that shows no "technical" evidence of having terminated let alone reversed nor of being capable of a nearly 50% (absolute value) secondary rally.Following the December 2015 price low the market has fluctuated - both higher and sideways - in what appears to be a consolidation of its preceding 4 year downleg.  Therefore, the gold market is vulnerable to renewed cyclical selling pressure.  Expect to see gold prices below $1050 between now and Q1 2019 before the next cyclical upswing gets going.

In reply to by Silver Savior

IronShield Wed, 12/06/2017 - 22:07 Permalink

Always buy what is widely despised. And for now, that's Au and Ag. Once BTC has run its course, precious metals will stand tall again.And for further evidence, I have yet to see BTC on the balance sheet of any major Central Bank. Oddly, they're still purchasing Au. A funny bunch they are, as if they know something.

83_vf_1100_c Wed, 12/06/2017 - 23:28 Permalink

  Create charts with jagged lines, draw straight lines across the x axis and throw a paragraph of voodoo economic jargon at it and it all means squat. Thousands of years of history show it to be good insurance for tough times. The monkey hammering has kept it cheap in fiat terms. It is a safe bet. Keep some wealth stashed in metals. Do not go all in, do not expect to get rich. Of course .gov can always change the rules, pull some FDR shit and demand we turn it in. Make it illegal. Like they did with booze and people like the Kennedys got rich running booze. Drugs are illegal, lots of folks still making good money on that. I personally would have no moral qualms going black market with my stash.  If you want to get rich quick, go play with bc or the markets. Just remember to exit early.

Easyp Thu, 12/07/2017 - 02:48 Permalink

Charts only work if your assumptions about a rational and unrigged marketplace hold true.  The gold market is rigged.  He might as well sacrifice a chicken and look at its entrails to predict where it will be next week.I hold gold mining stocks, some physical silver and intend to place a modest bet on a silver ETF before year end.