Here's What The Next Big Middle East War Will Look Like

Submitted by South Front

On Wednesday Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed during the Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference that Israel has to “act now against Iran” in order to stop the Iranians from "establishing themselves in Syria,” according to the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post.

During the conference, the Israeli prime minister argued that world leaders should join Israel and the US in pressuring Iran to accept renegotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. Netanyahu even warned that Iran will have nuclear weapons “in a decade” once the nuclear deal is over. Netanyahu also accused Iran of supporting “terrorist organizations” as usual, and said that Lebanese Hezbollah, and Palestinian Hamas would “not last a day without Iran,” according to Jerusalem Post.

Netanyahu's statements are clearly aimed at justifying the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Israeli media claimed that the airstrikes destroyed an Iranian military base, and a missile shipment; however, these claims were not backed by any evidence. The statements also serve the current policy of Israel, which is aimed at holding Iran responsible for all crises in the Middle East - a policy which is coordinated with some Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, according to many experts.

Due to these rising tensions and the past months of escalating events in various corners of the Middle East, it increasingly looks as if the world is on the brink of witnessing a new conflict over Lebanon. While the chances for escalation are high, the essential pre-conditions for a new, large-scale war in the region are still in the works.

Image source: Gulf Insider

To review, on November 22, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri temporarily suspended his resignation following a request by the country’s president Michel Aoun to reconsider the decision. Hariri originally announced his resignation in a televised speech from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on November 4 - an event which sparked a new round of tensions between Saudi Arabia on one end and Lebanon with Hezbollah on the other.

Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon of “declaring war” on Riyadh by allowing Hezbollah “aggression” against the kingdom. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Tehran of delivering missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces for use against the kingdom, an act he described as “direct military aggression”.

And on November 19, an emergency meeting of the Arab League was held between Saudi Arabia and other Arab foreign ministers in Cairo, calling for a united front, to counter Iran and Hezbollah. In a declaration issued after the meeting, the Arab League accused Hezbollah of “supporting terrorism and extremist groups in Arab countries, with advanced weapons and ballistic missiles.” In turn, the Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah said that Hariri was held captive in Saudi Arabia because he had not returned to Lebanon as he promised. On November 22, Hariri arrived at the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and suspended his resignation. This marked a new phase of the political standoff between the sides.

Hariri is a compromise figure in the Lebanese politics. His appointment as the Lebanese prime minister was de-facto supported by Saudi Arabia, the United States and some influential groups in Lebanon. This move was aimed to serve the “interethnic dialogue” in Lebanon.

However, the recent developments in the Middle East, including the nearing end of the conflict in Syria and the growing influence and military capabilities of Hezbollah, have changed the political situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah units de-facto fulfill functions of the presidential guard. Lebanese special services and the special services of Hezbollah are deeply integrated. Hezbollah’s victories in Syria and humanitarian activities in Lebanon increased the movement’s popularity among people.

All these events have taken place amid the developing crisis in Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has launched a large-scale purge among the top officials, influential businesspersons and princes under the pretext of combating corruption. According to some experts, the move is aimed at consolidating the power of the crown prince and his father, King Salman. Theoretically, the kingdom is seeking to shift its vector of development and to become a more secular state. In 5-10 years, it could even abandon Wahhabism as the official ideology should rumors of reform efforts be true. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is involved in an unsuccessful conflict in Yemen and a diplomatic crisis with Qatar. This situation fuels tensions and a competition for resources among the Saudi clans. As a result, the Saudi regime and the Saudi state in general, are now, in a weak position.

Let’s look at the interests of all parties.

On the one hand, the appearance of a new active foreign enemy could consolidate the Saudi population and its elites. The war with Hezbollah would allow the kingdom to gain additional assurances from the United States. Furthermore, with Israel entering the conflict, the kingdom would significantly reduce the risks of losses in any direct military confrontation with Lebanon and Hezbollah.

On the other hand, Riyadh has a wide range of foreign and internal problems. Considering the current weakness of Riyadh, any push may lead to utter disaster and the further instability of the royal family. 

In the case of the conflict in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia will be involved in a military and diplomatic standoff on 3 fronts:

  • North – Hezbollah and Iran;
  • South – Yemen; and
  • East – Qatar.

The conflict will also force a dramatic growth of oil prices. According to various experts, $150 per barrel can be expected by the end of the first month of any potential future conflict, if it is to occur. Some may suppose that this scenario is beneficial for Saudi Arabia or clans that control Saudi Aramco, the largest oil exporter around the world. However, the expected guerrilla war, which will likely erupt in the Shia-populated, oil-rich part of the country, will level out the pros of this scenario. Additionally, there is always a chance, that the main combat actions will be moved to the Saudi territory.

Israel and the West, in general, are not interested in high oil prices. In turn, Russia and Iran, who will not be involved in the initial stages of the conflict, will receive an increase in revenue from this scenario. The problem is that Tehran and Moscow are not interested in this “big new war” as well. Such a conflict in the Middle East will pose a direct threat to their national security

Israel’s attitude is another issue. Tel Aviv believes that the growing influence of Hezbollah and Iran in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, is a critical challenge to its national security. The key issue is that Israeli military analysts understand that Hezbollah is now much more powerful than it was in 2006. Now, Hezbollah is a strong, experienced, military organization, tens of thousands troops strong, which has the needed forces and facilities to oppose a possible Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon.

Iran has also strengthened its positions in the region over the last ten years. It has reinforced its air defense with the Russian-made S-300 systems, strengthened its armed forces and got combat experience in Syria and other local conflicts. Tehran also strengthened its ideological positions among the Shia and even Sunni population which lives in the region.

Thus, Israel will decide to participate in a large-scale conflict in Lebanon only in the case of some extraordinary event. It is possible to assume that in the coming months, a large-scale war in Lebanon will not be initiated. Nonetheless, Israel will continue local acts of aggression conducting artillery and air strike on positions and infrastructure of Hezbollah in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. Israeli special forces will conduct operations aimed at eliminating top Hezbollah members and destroying the movement’s infrastructure in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia will likely support these Israeli actions. It is widely known that Riyadh would rather use a proxy and engage in clandestine warfare.  This means that stability in the region will not come anytime soon.

In turn, Hezbollah still needs about one-and-a-half years to further strengthen its positions in Syria and to free additional forces, which could be used in other potential flash points. The movement will likely put an end to the separation of power in Lebanon. This would mean that Hezbollah and Lebanon would become synonymous. Hezbollah also needs time to expand its network in the Shia-populated part of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, as Hezbollah’s involvement in the Yemeni conflict deepens, the balance of power in the region may begin to shift, creating further setbacks of the Saudi-led coalition.

According to some estimates, Hezbollah will be ready for a new round of the “big game” in the Middle East in the spring of 2019. But let's hope that such a massive regional war does not come.


Slack Jack J S Bach Thu, 12/07/2017 - 19:55 Permalink

Like I said: Will Trump move the Jew capital to Jerusalem?

Of course, the idiot will. Trump is a Jew.

Just like, Obama, Bush and (Bill & Hillary) Clinton are all Jews.

And as to how real wars are fought,.... i.e., through deception, see

Proof that Adolf Hitler was a double agent.

It seems pretty weird when you first read it, but its clearly true.

In reply to by J S Bach

Slack Jack Slack Jack Thu, 12/07/2017 - 19:56 Permalink

What is weird is this; that 2000 years ago, there were no people even resembling Jews in the middle-east at all.

Turns out that there is not a single ancient Jewish city in what is now called Israel. There is not a single city where the Hebrew script is used on the statues and buildings. There is not a single city where the buildings are in the ancient Jewish architectural style. In fact, there is not even a category of "ancient Jewish architectural style".

If you check out all the ancient cities in Israel, they are all Greek, and their ruins are still there for you to visit. Their inscriptions are in the Greek script and the buildings are in the ancient Greek architectural styles.

Here is a list of some of the known ancient Greek cities in (and near) Israel; Ecdippa, Seleucia, Ptolemais, Taricheia Arbela, Asochis, Sepphoris, Hippos, Dion, Sycaminum, Bucolon Polis, Itabyrium, Gadara, Abila, Dora, Comus, Gephrus, Crocodilion Polis, Caesarea, Straton's Tower, Narbata, Scythopolis, Pella, Samaria, Amathus, Ragaba, Gerasa, Apollonia, Sicima, Pegae, Joppa, Arimathea, Jamnia, Port of Jamnia, Lydda, Modiin, Aphaerema, Philadelphia, Birtha, Gazara, Beth Horon, Dok, Jericho, Samaga, Esbus, Medaba, Ladder of Tyre, Azotus, Port of Azotus, Accaron, Jerusalem, Ascalon, Anthedon, Gaza, Marissa, Beth Zur, Hebron, Adora, Engeddi.

The ancient Jewish cities in Israel are,.... well there aren't any. Not even one.

Here's an interesting example of a first century BC Greek inscription (i.e., in Greek letters) from Jerusalem's Temple Mount forbidding the entry of Gentiles (i.e., non-Greeks) to the Temple precinct....…

In reply to by Slack Jack

richsob Slack Jack Thu, 12/07/2017 - 20:04 Permalink

Dude, there are numerous relics, artifacts, etc. that disprove your "theory".  Try visiting some museums around the world.  They can't all be in on the "conspiracy" to fake a Jewish presence in Israel.  The Jews piss me off too but denying the true historical facts doesn't add any credence to your writings.

In reply to by Slack Jack

Slack Jack Davidduke2000 Thu, 12/07/2017 - 20:16 Permalink

richsob Dec 7, 2017 8:04 PM "denying the true historical facts"

Why don't you name ONE ancient city that existed in what is now called Israel where the building inscriptions are all in Hebrew, and the buildings are constructed in the Hebrew architectural style (whatever that may be).

Then give a summary of "the Hebrew architectural style".

Then give links to photos of the building inscriptions which show that they are in written in Hebrew.

Then show that the buildings are constructed in the Hebrew architectural style.

In reply to by Davidduke2000

Slack Jack ne-tiger Thu, 12/07/2017 - 20:30 Permalink

I missed out a couple of important words; so again;

richsob Dec 7, 2017 8:04 PM "denying the true historical facts"

Why don't you name ONE ancient city (that existed in what is now called Israel) where the building inscriptions are all in Hebrew, and the buildings are constructed in the ancient Hebrew architectural style (whatever that may be).

Then give a summary of "the ancient Hebrew architectural style" (you will have to make this up as it does not yet exist).

Then give links to photos of the ancient building inscriptions which show that they are in written in Hebrew.

Then show that the ancient buildings are constructed in the Hebrew architectural style (that you have just defined/invented).

In reply to by ne-tiger

GUS100CORRINA Davidduke2000 Thu, 12/07/2017 - 22:02 Permalink

Here's What The Next Big Middle East War Will Look LikeMy response: Interesting information on the weapons, strategy and tactics that will be used from Man's perspective. From GOD's perspective, PSALM 83 and Isaiah 17 define the next war followed by Ezekiel 38-39 (GOG-MAGOG).  During these wars, GOD will intervene and SCARE THE HELL out of everyone. Man's weapons will be useless and Israel will be the only one in the Middleast left standing intact. This fact will NOT sit well with the ARABS because their losses will be massive.Matthew 24:22"If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect those days will be shortened."Mark 13:20"If the Lord had not cut short those days, no one would survive. But for the sake of the elect, whom he has chosen, he has shortened them."

In reply to by Davidduke2000

OverTheHedge GUS100CORRINA Thu, 12/07/2017 - 23:25 Permalink

Getting god to come and save your arse to perpetuate your racist, apartheid state seems outstandingly unfair. It also questions whether the God of the Bible is actually the loving, caring God that we are told he should be. If there was any justice in the world,  the Israeli state would!d be the one wiped off the face of the earth. Or at least given a Nelson Mandela moment.

In reply to by GUS100CORRINA

Jambo Mambo Bill Slack Jack Thu, 12/07/2017 - 20:54 Permalink

I have pondering about Israel... and my conclusion is that initially, Israel was created to be a Western outpost, a sort of a modern crusaders foothold deep into Muslims land.You could say that today Israel is convenient, and works like a sort of control, to keep the negative west-muslims demographics in check, trimming it down with infinity wars of occasion...Of course Israel in fact is much more than that!Never the less, knowing what Islam is and represents, one have only to thank Israel existence and modern function.Finally i have to conclude that historic facts are not important when trying to understand Israel, and more important than anything is to understand its function today for West."Your enemy is my enemy"If wasn't Israel presence in the middle-east, Europe would be in deeper trouble i am sure, the biggest problem however for Europe in particular, its not understand its natural geo-political nature, blame that on its stupid political class, that don't understand its gifted place in the World and don't respect its own people...So much efforts were given in the past for the moronic European political class of today waste it all... anyhow thank you Israel!

In reply to by Slack Jack

Conscious Reviver Jambo Mambo Bill Thu, 12/07/2017 - 22:33 Permalink

Jambo Mambo - congradulations you are more wack than Slack Jack.Actually Slack Jack has many good points, just not about carbon induced climate change. So, taking up the Slack Jack Challenge, ie. Find ancient Jewish inscriptions or architecture, I concede Slack Jack kind of has a point so here's some counterpoints.o What about these?… Ancient coins with Jewish inscriptions. Are they all fake?o As I mentioned earlier, The Dead Sea Scrolls.o Architecture. Two problems with Architecture. One - the Ancient Mediterranean was a Hellenistic culture. The Greeks had the culture everyone with money wanted to emulate, including the Romans and the well off hellenised Jews. Two - eventually the Romans and the Greeks came to despise and hate most Jews and things Jewish. According to official Roman records that have survived, and according to the Gospels, the temple in Jerusalem was destroyed so that "no stone stood upon another".Still, there are some examples, like Tel Arad to Romans Greeks came to hate the Jews. After Kitos War, all Jews, aka. men who had been circumcised were banned from Cyprus on pain of death. Even if they arrived there by accident, like their ship was blown off course, they were summarily executed.Also, look into Titus Flavius Josephus, born Yosef ben Matityahu and his writings on the Roman Jewish Wars.

In reply to by Jambo Mambo Bill

veritas semper… Bill of Rights Thu, 12/07/2017 - 21:44 Permalink

Almost ALL the laws passed by the US Knesset were to justify its theft and crimes. It's easy when you control and have a monopoly on weapons,media,money and legislation. The laws write themselves,like Obama care written by the insurance comp for THEIR benefit,and having nothing to do with your health.regarding that law,it's true and all US presidents wavered it  because they tried to pretend they are OBJECTIVE dealers between Palestine and the Zionist state.This move now smells of desperation,as the Evil Empire lost the war in Syria/Iraq and needs to attack.As the article said:see the attacks on Lebanon,Hezbollah,Iran,US increased military presence in Afghanistan,Yemen,Iraq,Syria,etc are ALL part of the same plan.Can you see the bigger picture? It's easy if you try. 

In reply to by Bill of Rights

Conscious Reviver veritas semper… Thu, 12/07/2017 - 22:25 Permalink

Exactly Veritas. So if Sheldon Anderson spends enough shekels and congress votes to murder all Goys or the oldest male child or whatever heinous thing they come up with, BoR is going to be cheering on Trumpo's execution of the mandate saying "Trump follows the (((law))) damn it."I told him to watch the following to see where this is going, but I don't think he did. These people were following the (((law))) too. 

In reply to by veritas semper…

Déjà view Conscious Reviver Thu, 12/07/2017 - 22:31 Permalink

Goys will be goys...

Religious intermarriage is exceedingly rare among Jews in Israel. Only about 2% of Jews who are married or living with a romantic partner say they have a spouse or partner who belongs to a non-Jewish faith or is religiously unaffiliated

A.H. had same principle...hmmmmm....

In reply to by Conscious Reviver

Slack Jack stecha Thu, 12/07/2017 - 19:53 Permalink

Like I said: Will Trump move the Jew capital to Jerusalem?

Of course, the idiot will. Trump is a Jew.

Just like, Obama, Bush and (Bill & Hillary) Clinton are all Jews.

And as to how real wars are fought,.... i.e., through deception, see

Proof that Adolf Hitler was a double agent.

It seems pretty weird when you first read it, but its clearly true.

In reply to by stecha

falconflight Thu, 12/07/2017 - 19:48 Permalink… Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's official capital and his announcement that he would move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to that city has sparked outrage not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe.One European leader who has condemned Trump's announcement is Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. Although you'd expect her to tread extremely carefully when talking about Israel -- considering her country's horrible record regarding the treatment of Jews -- nothing could be further from the truth."The federal government doesn't understand this decision because the status of Jerusalem must be negotiated within the framework of the two-state solution," the Bundeskanzlerin said through her spokesman Steffen Seiber. That is why, she added, the German government does not support Trump's decision.Her foreign secretary, Sigmar Gabriel, agrees with Merkel's position. "I believe that it carries the risk that an already difficult situation in the Middle East and in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will escalate even further," he added to Merkel's statement. He also complained that Trump's announcement supposedly ignores the Palestinians' interests and marks a 180-degree turn from the previous U.S. policy. "And that worries us," Gabriel said. "We hope that this concern can be taken away, but this turnaround is already a big problem."“We all know the far-reaching impact this move would have,” Gabriel added. “Germany’s position on this issue remains unchanged: A solution to the Jerusalem problem can only be found through direct negotiations between both parties. Everything which worsens the crisis is counterproductive.” Of course, both Merkel and Gabriel forgot to mention that the Palestinians haven't given "peace a chance" for decades — not even when Israel was willing to make serious concessions when the United States still considered Tel Aviv Israel's capital. It's difficult to imagine what more they could do to undermine the peace process than purposefully blowing them up time and again.