Three Charts And The Path To Hyper-Monetization

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

Just three charts putting things in perspective...

Chart #1:  three periods and four variables (total US energy consumption, 25-54yr/old US employees, federal debt, and federal funds rate %:

1950 to 1975

  • +43 quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
  • +15 million 25-54yr/old employees
  • +$0.3 trillion federal debt

1975 to 2000

  • +19 quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
  • +45 million 25-54yr/old employees
  • +$5.1 trillion federal debt

2000 to 2017

  • <-3> quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
  • +1.5 million 25-54yr/old employees
  • +$14.9 trillion federal debt

Chart #2:  Annual 15-64 year old population change versus the market weighted value of all stocks actively traded in the US.

Chart #3:  Breaking down the growth of the working age population, per ten year periods, versus the growth of the Wilshire 5000.

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For the minority that are asset holders, this should be great news as the now declining working age population is the cause for outright centrally driven hyper-monetization domestically and globally.  Market valuations previously undreamed of will be achieved in the "new depopulationary normal". 

For the majority that are working for a living with little or no assets, a stagflationary nightmare.

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Bonus Chart:  15-64yr/old total population versus annual change.  Again, the Census estimated growth among the 15-64yr/old population in excess of 600 thousand in 2017 (almost entirely thanks to immigration)...but reality appears to be a decline in excess of 200 thousand (detailed HERE).  And moving forward, the chances of core depopulation through 2025 look increasingly more likely.  Regardless the Fed speak and happy tax talk, a spectacular amount of additional debt and monetization will be necessary over the next decade if America is to show "growth" in a nation built on debt fueled consumption and trade deficits.