Pending Home Sales Beat, But Sales In The West Continue To Slide

New-, Existing-, and now Pending-Home Sales all beat expectations in November.

Pending sales just printed a surprise 0.2% gain (against expectations of a 0.4% drop) with a surge in Northeast offsetting a second monthly decline in sales in The West.

Notably, pending home sales in The West are down 2.3% YoY - the 10th monthly drop in YoY sales in a row...

What happens next? (After the tax reform changes)

Comments

CheapBastard Pool Shark Dec 27, 2017 11:43 AM Permalink

Homeowners Rush to Prepay 2018 High-End Property Tax Bills  Homeowners across the nation are rushing this week to prepay their property taxes for 2018 before the Republican tax law kicks in Jan. 1 and effectively raises the levy on higher-end homes.The new legislation, which President Donald Trump signed into law last week, caps at $10,000 the amount of state and local taxes that filers can deduct from their federal tax bill. That means those whose tax bills regularly exceed that amount could benefit by paying more tax in 2017, when the deduction has no limit. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/homeowners-rush-to-prepay-2018-pro… The MSM weeps for these wealthy homoeowners, esp in Cali and warshington. yet, they would have little sympathy for the middle class if Crooked Hillary had been elected and passed her 65% income tax on the hard working muiddle class (who don't have prop taxes over $10,000).

In reply to by Pool Shark

Marley Dec 27, 2017 10:36 AM Permalink

Haa ha ha ha ha.... my evil plan is working.   Buh ah hah =).  Your home prices are going to drop every where but fly-over america and I'm waiting to purchase them. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha  And on top of that, you-all just doubled your tax rates.  You all love double taxation. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.  Except in fly-over since they don't pay taxes anyway. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

itstippy Dec 27, 2017 11:26 AM Permalink

Baby Boomers are retiring at the rate of 10,000 per day.  With no job to keep them rooted, many choose to relocate for their "Golden Years".  They move closer to their kids, out of high tax areas, to warmer climates, or they simply downsize in the same area.  A lot of them leave their single family homes and buy condos to make life easier.Who is buying their existing homes in suburban "jobs areas"?  Is it predominantly young first-time buyers, or is it real estate investors who plan to rent them out for income?  I suspect it's the latter.  A lot of boomers retire, move, but keep the old place as retirement income.  They rent it out through a property management company and get a check every month.Residential Real Estate is a different environment than it was just a couple decades ago.  Condominiums, Home Owner Associations, and Property Management Companies have changed the landscape.  Getting a "good job", settling down, getting married to a good woman and owning a single family home with a dog and 2.5 kids is no longer the American Dream for young men.  I'm not clear on what exactly they want, but it isn't that.  I think they want to live on college campuses the rest of their lives.  The student lifestyle is pretty nice, but it's not sustainable indefinately since it's generally financed by debt or one's parents or both.It will be interesting to see what happens to all the 2000 sq. ft. suburban homes over the next 20 years.  They may not be worth what people think they'll be worth.

CheapBastard itstippy Dec 27, 2017 11:48 AM Permalink

A co-worker of mine retired and moved to Chiang Mai last year. Said it's pretty nice once you learn where everything is and his bills such as med and dental expenses are 1/10th of what they were in the USA. Pretty large ex-pay community there mostly Brits and Germans but they all get along he said.He said his kids never come to visit anymore anyway so he an dhis wife won't miss them.

In reply to by itstippy

rf80412 itstippy Dec 27, 2017 11:57 AM Permalink

Who is buying their existing homes in suburban "jobs areas"?  Is it predominantly young first-time buyers, or is it real estate investors who plan to rent them out for income?  I suspect it's the latter.

Young, first-time buyers can't afford those inflated costs that an entire economy is dependent upon.

Getting a "good job", settling down, getting married to a good woman and owning a single family home with a dog and 2.5 kids is no longer the American Dream for young men.  I'm not clear on what exactly they want, but it isn't that.

Most young [white] men would love to have their father's and grandfathers' American dream, but they can't afford it.  More than that, they are an entire generation of beaten dogs that know nobody likes them or cares about them.  It's been their sisters (and melaninated hellions) who got all the attention and support.  Young men are willing to settle for a small, pointless life that's at least easy and full of cheap, simple pleasures.

In reply to by itstippy

everything1 Dec 27, 2017 11:16 AM Permalink

Gangbusters here in the midwest, but it all depends on where/why money is pouring into any one area.  Some areas are pure crap, the homes are rotting, places like CA it tops out first, the technology boom brought in more people than housing, and then we see this where the sales fall as their isn't anything to sell, it's all owned.  CA is good to watch though, anytime a recession is coming CA slows down months ahead of it, I think this is in part due to how much money is flowing into the area, when people start tightening the belt tech items are one thing they stop buying.But, the chart shows pending is pretty flat in both places, it's about January, it's colder than F, this is completely normal for this time of year.  Also, the government is playing interest rate fear games again, when they say they are raising interest rates three times next year, well so by EOY 2018 maybe we are up a whole point from a year back, so many are rushing to buy before they are priced out again as they did back in 2008 I believe it was.Nothing really changed since then, I mean yeah times are not good when we need tax cuts and are piling debt on, it's good though, if we finally get some inflation which is what most countries want, why do you think gold prices held up so well, Asians are running scared, they know what can happen.