What They Were Saying At the Top

From the Slope of Hope: With cryptos in a bloody free-fall, I thought it might be instructive to look back at what they were saying a month ago, when Bitcoin futures were launched at almost $21,000. Let's take a look at the predictions of experts and self-proclaimed crypto-geniuses.

 

50

 

Not to be outdone, Ronnie Moas (who?) had a target six times higher......since it's, umm, "realistic":

300

And shame on us for not taking this as the greatest signal in human history.........

altuch

 

So far, so good!

 

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Comments

Moe-Monay Erek Wed, 01/17/2018 - 14:28 Permalink

BTC at 300,000 is no more or less probable today than it was 2 months ago.

It has has numerous pull backs.  So whatever you were thinking in November you should have more or less the same opinion now if all you are looking at is the price chart.

Geebus would Altucher give us a rest from that clown face and fright wig of his???

In reply to by Erek

Moe-Monay TeamDepends Wed, 01/17/2018 - 18:43 Permalink

You can say the same thing about gold.  It has only the value for the purposes it is used for.

Same with btc.   Too much religion going around for my tastes.  

Gold / Silver - won't save you during the big crash.  Your grand kids will love you for pass some real value through the shitstorm.  But during the shitstorm a loaf of bread will probably cost you an Oz of gold.

In reply to by TeamDepends

Angelo Misterioso new game Thu, 01/18/2018 - 10:18 Permalink

main difference between gold and crypto is simply supply and demand - it takes serious heavy industry and fuel and labor etc to produce gold whereas in the stretch of just a few years there has been nearly 1,500 different cryptos created valued at over $600 billion.  At that run rate, we should see 5,000 cryptos and a several trillion market cap in no time at all.  Gold was an inflation hedge simply because it required fuel and labor and those went up with inflation so the cost to produce it (and its price) at least kept pace.  Granted that energy is a critical part of crypto but it is also a critical part of keeping it going whereas with gold, once I have it in my hand, it does not require anything more... so limited supply vs virtually unlimited supply... 

In reply to by new game

wcole225 bluskyes Wed, 01/17/2018 - 14:55 Permalink

Human nature is such that alot people when they feel they've missed the boat have to rationalize why it was a good thing. Either that or pure jealousy and envy blind them to the truth. Here's the truth. Missing the boat just might suck cuz it would have taken you to a place you'll only get to dream about otherwise.  More truth. Blockchain is superior and it's here to stay. All the talk about crypto's being a balloon....it's not a currency... blah blah blah. It's the technology stupid. Yes it's risky right now and maybe it tanks in its present form but the technology is real and companies that work to improve it are real. Risk reward. You do realize how stupid you sound to people that took a risk and are millionaires in a year right? If you're unwilling to risk then stay in your safe spaces but for the love of God shut up about stuff you don't know anything about.  

In reply to by bluskyes

Anonymous_Bene… Wed, 01/17/2018 - 12:40 Permalink

Here a bottom, there a bottom, pretty soon we're talking a lot of bottoms.

Bet my bottom dollar somebody's gonna find bottom before the bottom falls out.

I got in at $12 a coin in 2012. Sold at $28, $68 and $268. Bought back in 2 years ago in the $300 range but turned around and liquidated at a very slight loss in order to finish paying my house and land off and buy more tools to speed work up. I saw BTC going a lot higher before going bearish, my guess was $12,500, but sometimes a bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush. I missed this rally but looking forward to attending the next one.

I'll probably step back in once we get to $2,000-$3,000 but it's gonna be a long, painful grind to get down there and I'm making more than enough running a small business in the meantime, I'm not in any hurry.

LaugherNYC Anonymous_Bene… Wed, 01/17/2018 - 19:25 Permalink

This is a SCARY comment. You are putting money you need to pay for your HOUSE in cryptos? Are you INSANE??? Invest in your business, invest in your children. Bitcoin is as speculative as an investment can be. Assume you are takin the money outside and burning it. If you can afford to burn it, then you can put it in  Bitcoin.

Yes, some people got very rich in BITC. If they have not sold, in a trader's lingo, they now own it at $19,000, because they elected to hold it. They are sitting on a 50% loss. This is called mark-to-market. If they gave themselves a bonus and bought a Lamborghini, they better have had that in cash, because as long as they hold BITC, they hold NOTHING.

I have friends who had $1 billion in an internet company stock in 1999. In 2001, they had $300,000. They LOST $999 million. One of them asked my advice (HE had $10 million.) I told him sell half NOW. Then you can afford to laugh it off if it tanks. He did.   Never regret money you didn't make. Only regret profits you didnt take.

In reply to by Anonymous_Bene…

techpriest Anonymous_Bene… Thu, 01/18/2018 - 01:33 Permalink

I'm kinda surprised people didn't see that part either. I recently paid off my house also - when you owe more than ~$20k it doesn't register that the mortgage is something that is going to go away. So you invest. But one day you are sitting at $20k or $15k and you suddenly realize that if you sell some stuff, the mortgage could be gone.

That's how it worked for me. I'm guessing it was similar for you?

In reply to by Anonymous_Bene…

Anonymous_Bene… techpriest Thu, 01/18/2018 - 09:50 Permalink

Congrats.

Very similar situation for me.

I did a very simple analysis of my hierarchy of needs.

Now no man but the tax man can take the roof from over my family's heads. Getting off the rent cycle is the best thing I've ever done.

With that out of the way I put all my focus and energy into creating cool stuff that people are willing to spend big money on. My main problem is now what to do with the returns from running a small business lifestyle. Downsizing and automation are big for me at the moment, eliminating all unnecessary moving parts, doing a lean manufacturing approach until things run as efficiently as possible before I think about growing anymore. And I really don't want to grow anymore because I'm more than happy with what I have to spend every month. If I could get my costs down another 20% that represents a very nice raise. I'm shooting for higher. Compound that annually and I like my own chances vs. something I don't really know about like BTC.

Investing in anything but myself and what I know is a fools game...possession is now the rule of law.

But I'll still probably step in to buy a couple btc once they come back down to the historical trend line.

 

In reply to by techpriest

Spaced Out techpriest Thu, 01/18/2018 - 10:15 Permalink

Good for you! Yes, people only seem to read the bits they want to. I also paid off the mortgage with bitcoin profits a few months ago, what a great feeling. And I've still got plenty of crypto assets to benefit from the next pump. I've also bought silver over the years but crypto was easily the best investment I've ever made.

In reply to by techpriest

discopimp Wed, 01/17/2018 - 12:46 Permalink

No offense to Altucher, but no one in the BTC community ever heard of him.  If one bothered to do one's homework , its evident from this "I am the best - read my 20 page web site to invest in my proven strategies" weblinks  that this chia pet was just attempting to sell his trading strategy so not really worth mentioning that this guy as a realistic veiwpoint...lets wait until Novagratz has more to say, and lets publish that...thanks  

Anonymous_Bene… discopimp Wed, 01/17/2018 - 13:01 Permalink

Yes, of course you only want to hear from people who are going to confirm your bias. It makes you feel good.

I remember a ZH article from waaay back deriding Altucher for his Dow 20,000 call. At the time I thought something along the lines of "yeah right, what the fuck does this fuzzy pinhead know other than some dude's hairy ass". Turns out he was actually right.

FYI:https://www.zerohedge.com/article/dow-20000-or-bust-or-how-james-altucher-stole-birinyis-ruler

In reply to by discopimp

Conax Wed, 01/17/2018 - 13:14 Permalink

I doubt that btc is over, this looks like a severe correction across the crypto world, a necessary dampening of the animal spirits.  It was going effin nutso so something was sure to happen to it.

I expect it will finally bottom, bumble about there for a bit then cautiously start to edge up, much like gold or silver does before the hammer drops.