Terrific Tom? The Super Bowl Indicator Might Disagree

Via LPLResearch.com,

The Super Bowl indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner comes from the original National Football League (now the NFC), but when an original American Football League (now the AFC) team wins, stocks fall. We would be the first to admit that this indicator has no connection to the stock market, but the data doesn’t lie—the S&P 500 Index has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 51 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won.

A simpler way to look at the Super Bowl indicator is to look at the average gain for the S&P 500 when the NFC has won versus the AFC—and ignore the history of the franchises. This similar set of criteria has produced an average price return of 10.8% when an NFC team has won, compared with a return of 5.8% with an AFC winner. An NFC winner has produced a positive year 82% of the time, while the S&P 500 has been up only 63% of the time when the winner came from the AFC.

Would you believe the numbers actually get worse when the Patriots are involved? That’s right; the S&P 500 has only gained 3.1% on average in years when the Patriots play in the big game, but things get even worse if they win.

“Pats fans might be ecstatic that Tom Brady is starting in a record-breaking eighth Super Bowl, but market bulls don’t want to see them win, as stocks are up only 1.5% for the year on average after a victory versus up 5.1% if they lose,” said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

“Tom might be terrific, but maybe not in all cases.”

We would like to reiterate that this is in no way relevant to investors, but it sure is more fun to talk about the Super Bowl and stock market returns than politics this Sunday evening. We hope everyone has a great Super Sunday and wish both the Eagles and Pats luck!

FULL DISCLOSURE – LPL Research has an office in Boston and we have many Patriots fans, but the author of this piece sure isn’t one.

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Comments

zorba THE GREEK FreeShitter Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:24 Permalink

The Patriots are going to lose because The Eagles are better, and they don't cheat. Besides, Philadelphia was the home of the Original Patriots. Just look at the Eagles last game, 38 unanswered points, and they were underdogs. New England is shaking in their boots. New England will have their hands full just keeping the game from becoming an early blowout. FLY, EAGLES,FLY, ON YOUR WAY TO VICTORY.

In reply to by FreeShitter

USofAzzDownWeGo Son of Loki Sun, 02/04/2018 - 13:20 Permalink

The patriots are all white. Brady, a white qb, is the greatest football player in history. All their wide receivers are even white, their star te gronk is white. the best coach in history is white. isn't it fun to watch white boys beat the fuck out of niggers? Brady will have 6 superbowls if they win... next best qb is 4 superbowl wins.. What's not to like about this white powerhouse? Fuck off, im watching and rooting for tom... GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

In reply to by Son of Loki

Implied Violins USofAzzDownWeGo Sun, 02/04/2018 - 13:36 Permalink

Minneapolis: known for being a city with a high concentration of white people.

Eagle: symbol of America.

Patriots: Americans that stand for the constitution, like Trump.

Bank One: An American bank.

Could all of this be a set-up for a large symbolic false flag event?  A massive terror event here would presage further attacks upon America, and especially our banking institution and white conservatives.

Why even bring this up? Bibi Netanyahu gave a speech listing several mass terrorism sites in September 2016, and he mentioned Minnesota.  What ever happened there?  The bridge collapse?  Or, was he foreshadowing something?  Also: Jim Stone just posted that people were listing deaths of people on Wikipedia pages, attributed to the Super Bowl.

Here's hoping just putting this out there keeps it from happening...

In reply to by USofAzzDownWeGo

Lumberjack chunga Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:38 Permalink

Gronk, Tom and Bill will go to Philly and ring the Liberty Bell.

Gotta remember that Tim Thomas (Bruins Goalie) refused to go to DC to meet Obama when they won the cup.

Then this:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brady-osweiler-jordan-bird-among-players-to-skip-previous-white-house-visits/amp/

 

The last quarter today, especially after the 2 minute warning will be their finest moment, once again and Bill will have to add another number on his boat!

In reply to by chunga

Mr Hankey . . . _ _ _ . . . Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:43 Permalink

Because you fellate circumcised  billionaire baby-burners & esp. their NIGGER minions like little bitch catamites?

Because you're a 56% murishart food-unit?

Because there is no bigger porch-monkey than the happy porch monkey?

Because this turd-world shithole hasn't done anything tough& brave in75 years? 

Because imperial hubristic autistic pom-pom girls are gonna crash the hardest?

In reply to by . . . _ _ _ . . .

Alexander De Large Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:27 Permalink

Treasonous fake news written by a research institute of gays who hate America.

Knowing this group is located in Boston, I strongly suspect they were vocal supporters of school integration and bussing in the 1970's.

adr Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:28 Permalink

I don't think the crash of 2008 had anything to do with Tom Brady. The 2002 win was a couple months after 9/11. 

Take those away and you only have a -.7% drop one year.

overbet Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:31 Permalink

Youre a cuck if you watch football. A pathetic SJW tea bagging cuck.

<<< running cuck counter

You know who you are. You are supposed to be men. What happened to make you this way? Read some books, do some research and try to heal yourselves. Society needs men, not boys that fantasize about other men playing a kid's game. 

currency Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:37 Permalink

This is the largest Bubble MKT, worse than any prior MKTS, its going to sink, retesting and breaking below 2008/9 lows.

 

The author is not a PATS fan as noted at the end of the article.

 

To the Author - GO PATS GO PATS - PATS 34 - Eagles -17

 

 

 

Mr Hankey Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:50 Permalink

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'murica sucks donkey balls.

 

Mr_Potatohead Sun, 02/04/2018 - 13:11 Permalink

Like the US-centric financial system and its current cheerleaders, the NE Patriots have had a good run.  But all good runs eventually come to an end.  There's a good chance for the Brady era to end tonight.  If it does, the symbolism is interesting: defeat of long time champions who wrap themselves in red/white/blue and have been called patriots - even when they cheated - by an underdog that has been a perennial loser and whose mascot is a bird of prey from a family known as "old world vultures".

Ms No Sun, 02/04/2018 - 13:31 Permalink

I was pretty happy that this year, just like last year, I had not one clue who was even in the Super Bowl until the Hedge posted something about it.  I saw no football this year.  I remember have appetizers and drinks a couple times and seeing it silent on one TV out of four in an Italian place a couple times but I wasn't forced to know it existed.

gearjammers1 Sun, 02/04/2018 - 13:38 Permalink

Patriots owner Robert Kraft touches down in Jerusalem, where he's bringing football to the Middle East - http://www.latimes.com/sports/nfl/la-sp-patriots-kraft-israel-20170905-…

"Robert Kraft had two unforgettable comebacks this year.

The first came in Super Bowl LI, when his New England Patriots overcame a 28-3 deficit in the second half to beat the Atlanta Falcons in overtime.

And the second comeback was Kraft's return in June to Israel, his second home, with a delegation of 18 Hall of Fame players whom he hosted, among them Jim Brown, Joe Montana and Roger Staubach.

Kraft, who is Jewish, has been heavily invested in Israel, both financially and emotionally, and is close friends with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."