Turkey's Offensive In Syria: The US Falls Into A Trap Of Its Own Making

Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

In the heat of the battle for Afrin, Turkey has warned it will go farther to establish control over vast swathes of land in northern Syria. The offensive  is supposed to take Turkish forces as far as Syria’s border with Iraq. On Jan. 28, Ankara called on Washington to withdraw its military from Manbij (100 km from Afrin) before it launches an operation to clear that area of Kurdish militias. It’s important to note that the US had provoked Turkey’s action by announcing its decision to set up a new border security force in the areas under Kurdish control. So Washington has created this situation all by itself – a trap of its own making. Having sown the wind, it reaps the whirlwind.

A push to the east will potentially force a confrontation between Turkish troops and the US-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Kurdish combat units in Afrin missed their opportunity to avoid a worst-case scenario.

Some Pro-Kurdish sources say Russia had betrayed the Afrin Kurds by pulling its peacekeepers out before the Turkish attack began. This is a very misleading statement. Let’s look at the facts. Moscow believes all regions west of the Euphrates should be under the control of the regular Syrian army, because these areas belong to Syria – a territorially cohesive country with a legitimate government. Russia had asked the Kurds in Afrin to interact with Damascus and allow its regular army into the area. They refused. Moscow is still ready to act as a mediator to broker talks on autonomy within Syria. So far that initiative has been rejected. The Kurds have preferred the US as their protector. Now they are on their own. They've made their bed, now they must lie in it.".

The US military has not defended the Kurds in Afrin, claiming it does not regard them as allies on par with the Kurds who are part of the SDF farther east. The US maintains that the Kurds in Afrin did not fight the Islamic State (IS). But even so, those Kurds did protect Afrin and kept their land from being invaded by jihadi militants. Perhaps the US never committed itself to defending the Kurds in Afrin, but it did accept the responsibility of protecting the SDF in Manbij. What will happen now? It is next to impossible to make predictions with any degree of accuracy, but we can contemplate some potential scenarios.

The Turkish Hürriyet Daily News reported that the US and Turkey are in talks over ways to de-escalate the conflict. NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller has confirmed that fact, but it’s not clear how that would jibe with the offensive announced by Ankara to capture the land held by the SDF. In any event, it would be too humiliating for Washington to give in to Turkey’s demand. If the US fails to protect its Kurdish allies, it will have no reason to maintain its military presence in Syria. It will have to leave the country, just as Russia and Syria have requested.

One potential scenario would include inciting a broader uprising of Kurds that would encompass Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. That might reshape the regional map. A development like that is not outside the realm of possibility.

Another consequence – NATO’s cohesion has already been undermined now that Turkey and the US are supporting opposite sides. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the US will either blink first or it will ask NATO to suspend, or even expel, Turkey from that organization, at least as long as President Erdogan is in power. This would naturally push Ankara in the direction of Moscow and Beijing, if it should move from NATO to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. President Erdogan only recently mentioned how tired he was of the whole EU membership process.

A political defeat for the US is the most probable outcome. Washington will have to pay for its lack of a clear action plan in Syria and its inability to fully grasp the situation. Obviously Washington is in a predicament. It is up against a very hard choice.

If the US intends to stay in northern Syria, it certainly needs the Kurds. But if America sides with the Kurds, it will lose Turkey. It might find itself excluded from the entire nation-building process, since it is hostile toward all the major actors: the Syrian government; Russia; Iran; and Turkey. If it abandoned the Kurds, that would be a blow to its credibility in the Middle East, given its recent split with the Palestine Authority over the recognition of Jerusalem.

If the US manages to reach an agreement with Turkey, that will mean farewell to the prospect of Syrian Kurdistan obtaining a special status that would make it an independent state, whether just in practice or perhaps even officially. The Turkish offensive is likely to make the Kurds more willing to negotiate with Damascus. A future alliance with the Syrian government is an alternative that would push the Kurds into the peace process. It would boost Syria’s chances of remaining an undivided state. Moscow could act as a mediator between Damascus, the Kurds, and Ankara. After all, Moscow is one of few capitals where the Syrian Kurds maintain a representative office.

All efforts should be exerted within the framework of the Astana peace process, which is being directed  by Moscow, Ankara, and Tehran. Washington has always emphasized that its goal in Syria was to fight against IS. But that jihadist group is now so diminished as to be insignificant in Syria. The mission has been accomplished. Why should Washington expend more time and effort, balanced on the brink of armed conflict with Ankara or with any other actor in Syria? After all, if the Astana peace process succeeds, America’s European allies will heave a sigh of relief as the waves of refugees from Syria abate. The best thing the US could do under these circumstances would be to pull out of Syria, focus on diplomacy, and just give peace a chance.

Comments

D503 Déjà view Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:21 Permalink

This isn't how oil works, this isn't how anything works. 

We take our boot off the neck of the middle east and you can have exactly the 1800's lifestyle the fool leftists want with carbon emissions credits. 

Do you honestly think Exxon Mobil has slipped 8 spots in production volume and Saudi Aramco went public because wells are pushing greater volume at the same return on investment?

The faithful in no constraints, and the hopeful in no limits are fools all. 

In reply to by Déjà view

EddieLomax D503 Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:52 Permalink

I'd agree but our boot on their neck isn't increasing production, nor are we stopping wars over there anymore than Turkey is.  War is bad for production.

The arabs are stuck having to produce oil whether they hate us (ISIS) or not, even if its at a loss, its just that at a loss they clearly are not going to be maintaining production levels.

The biggest boon for the world would be for the middle east to wipe out its Islamic population, that way we'd have high out supplies and virtually no consumption or violence.

Right now if the west does not intervene then SA/Turkey/Iran will, if the west intervene's then so will everyone else plus Russia, its a mess and always will be.

In reply to by D503

Boing_Snap avenriv Wed, 02/07/2018 - 07:29 Permalink

The Kurds are a problem for Turkey, Iraq, and Syria as they're sitting over top of oil deposits and transport routes. Erodgan wants to restart the trade that ISIS was using to fund itself, Syria and Iraq wants the oil production benefits to go to themselves.

The Kurds, poor bastards, can't trust any of them, and have no where to go, the US is the only country that is offering a chance at survival with peace, and god knows that the US can't be trusted at all.

In reply to by avenriv

BrownCoat avenriv Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:08 Permalink

" why do you hate the kurds ? they are islamic too..."

Only some Kurds are Muslim. ISIS grouped all Kurds as "devil worshipers." There are various factions in the Kurdish population including hard core Marxists. 

Most Kurds want an independent Kurdish state. (Attention snowflakes: this is a racist objective. Happens all the time in the real world.) Turkey opposes an independent Kurdish state. This sets up a conundrum with no easy answers.

In reply to by avenriv

BobEore JRobby Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:07 Permalink

They are posted as many times as needed - for you to get the message... USA/bad Russia/Iran/Turkey/good.

Then the clowns from 'neo' or some other thinktank the Russkie equivalent of 'GATESTONE INSTITUTE' gets thrown into the mix, for further mind wiping 'R_I-T' hyping... till you break and say "OK"... I'm Boris Badenov's best buddy!

Unfortunately for anyone trying to make some sense of things in the 'muddled east' ... the only thing these sad sacks understand about "objective journalism" is the 'objective' part which is to run the 'death to america' meme into the ground on behalf of the Russo-talmudic mafiyas' program to smother both east and west in a new world ordure of the kabbalistic kind.

It's an entire subindustry in itself, this new agit-prop empire of bs which paints the Americans as the villains in every piece - even, as in this case, when they are absent the scene. Turkey needed no prompting from DC to go south on another neoottoman fantasy safari - their order are directly sent from tel aviv, which - as I have tirelessly pointed out to the uncomprehending gomers who have developed a nail gun to the noggin fetish, has been directly in charge of the Ankara jihadist regime since spring 2016. This spread of jihadist ethnic cleansing south of their own border is simply an extension of the civil war which they have brewed up domestically,

and which will end badly for all involved. Luckily, I've been busy in the lab, brewing up some (nettle-based)homeopathic antidotes to the rabid droolings of these paid talmudic trollsters, and was just working on the perfect one for this piece when I checked in here now! Anti-media medias: Just more "Kabbalism in Action!"

 

Mike Nomads Truth in Media Jihad: More Fun than a Barrel 0 FSA Flunkies getin flamed by a YPG gal with an ATGM!

In reply to by JRobby

BobEore new game Wed, 02/07/2018 - 06:55 Permalink

is this a new beginning?

Damn straight it be, NG!

It's not without significance to our storyline that those places and peoples figure in the current moment as some of the distant ancestral elements of the folk who make up Anatolia today - who, contrary to the invented mythology of "Turkishness," are a mix of so many different ethnicities as to be describable as nothing other than ANATOLIAN! Even definable groups such as the "Kurds" are really more a part of this mixed ethnic continuum than their own propaganda would let on; and it's entirely on point with our premise here that the breakaway Kurdish enclaves in 'northern Syria' have included mention of "the Goddess" in their political declarations of autonomy. Tapping into the substratum of Anatolian consciousness in such a manner is a savvy move which goes far in balancing the heavy esbaggage of a movement overly-influenced by a reconstructed "Marxist-Leninist" such as Ocalan./

https://storify.com/SuaveBel/word-of-tree-whisper-of-stone-an-invocatio…

Beyond hope... beyond fear. Anat 0 lia... the beginnings of resistance to talmudic terror. The return to our own beginnings at last!

In reply to by new game

Badsamm Déjà view Wed, 02/07/2018 - 03:45 Permalink

I forget who I’m suppose to be rooting for. Too many war crimes and crimes against humanity to make sense. I think I want Putin to drop the hammer and clear the space completely so the Syrian people can decide their fate

In reply to by Déjà view

BobEore lurker since 2012 Wed, 02/07/2018 - 05:41 Permalink

When the wheels fall completely

OFF of the fake news narratives... remember - break glass and -

Slander the Kurds of Rojava... with the ol KRG Barzani Gang Sraeli

connection!

Back o the class(agin!)for you lurker buddy... and no shirkin the homework this time!

A Background Primer on Afrin and the TERROR STATE

"In contrast, many of those who identify as Kurds in eastern Anatolia have more affinity to clan-based tribal organization under leaders who are Islamized Sunnis often employed by the central state to attack other ethnic minorities. These are the same demographic who occupy northern Iraq now in a putative Kurdistan that is allied with the Ankara Islamist regime. They also have strong and direct ties to Srael."

No tickee - no laundry budster!

In reply to by lurker since 2012

philipat Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:06 Permalink

The US presence in Syria is ILLEGAL. Period. So when US Special Forces start getting killed, don't start bleeting to the UN Security Council because it never sanctioned the US to be there in the first place.

mug SpanishGoop Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:02 Permalink

The Kurds in Syria have been blasting the regime for years, fighting against them. Now when Turkey comes in, they call on the regime to help being that it's Syrian soil. Do you think they want to stop the Turks? Especially when the US is there too. Russia will have a good control over what the Turks will and won't do. 

In reply to by SpanishGoop

tbd108 philipat Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:50 Permalink

This whole article is a pile of propagandic crap. The purpose of the US presence in Syria is to keep the Russian/Iranian gas pipeline from reaching the Med. The Kurds are just pawns in the nasty game played by the US. Also the relationship with Turkey completely broke down when the US tried to assassinate Erdogan  but failed. All the rest is just useless details. The whole article, not mentioning these issues while they are known by everyone who gives a damn about what is going on over there, is nonsense.

In reply to by philipat

sarz tbd108 Wed, 02/07/2018 - 13:08 Permalink

I won't spoil the party with a down vote, but I think your presupposition is misconceived. What you call "the US" is not what it was when Judaic power was uncontested. There was Yinon and there was a threat to Russian survival through a pipeline war. They are still there of course, but the American president is not signed on. He is playing a very strong game with a weak hand. He is supporting the Judaic world order 150 percent, a total shabbos goy but an idiot. Every step he takes brings the empire further to defeat and America to a somewhat mitigated hard landing. Jerusalem, Pakistan/Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea. And just days ago a sanctions list that will guarantee Putin's reelection and drive Russian capital back to Russia. Now, in Syria, an end game that leaves no option but a united Syria. I hesitated to say this sort of stuff lest I give the game away, but then I realized of course the big bad guys know and so do their major enemies. That's why they won't let up. It's just us poor ordinary schmucks who are in the dark.

Seeing the mass media coverage of Trump's trip to China it's hard to imagine that no visitor to China -- ever -- had so grand a reception. The only place I saw it covered was at Larouche's website.

And at the edge of a conference in Vietnam a couple of months back Trump and Putin met for just a few seconds to shake hands. Putin is one of the world's tough guys. But see the look on his face. 

So forget about "the US". No such creature. But there is a once much loved and respected nation that might make a recovery. 

In reply to by tbd108

agNau Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:15 Permalink

BS article.

At least a BS picture. There in the background you can plainly see the golden arches.

These warriors all posed. Nah.

Normally Aspirated Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:16 Permalink

Maybe just maybe the whole US Turkey disagreement is a farce?

 

Maybe this is a way of Turkey invading Syria as a US proxy? I wouldn't be even a little bit surprised.

Both countries are in Syria against International Law and the UN and no other country seems to give a F***!

This entire US Turkey head on crash just may be a ruse to oust Assad or break up Syria.

I find it HARD to believe that the US has allowed itself to be the meat in the sandwich. More likely they are orchestrating the entire concert at the behest of their Israeli brothers

Pandelis JRobby Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:52 Permalink

you sure about that?  may be (((they))) ...opppsss ISIS .... has to kill a few more millions Jazidis up in the mountains ... who knows might need PIPELINES there too.

these wars (mass killings) are about disposing people of their land where they lived since biblical times ... i am sure it will reach you wherever you are hidding in uk (brexit) or europe with all these "immigrants/ISIS" (if you need further evidence dont look further than this farse of a trial of this ISIS person in brussels.... unless you are notified you might get accidented in another terror attack.

In reply to by JRobby

Lore Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:29 Permalink

Re: "The best thing the US could do...would be to pull out of Syria, focus on diplomacy, and give peace a chance."

Facepalm.  Clearly, this guy isn't a shareholder.  Welcome to the NWO, chump.  All that matters is Profit and Control.  We'll fuck you up. 

LA_Goldbug Wed, 02/07/2018 - 02:50 Permalink

" " The best thing the US could do under these circumstances would be to pull out of Syria, focus on diplomacy, and just give peace a chance." "

A Bully is incapable of any of those things. Now if he does do anything that seems like that you better bet that he is putting you on. US foreign policy is called Insanity for the Chosenites.

silver140 Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:08 Permalink

"Washington has always emphasized that its goal in Syria was to fight against IS. But that jihadist group is now so diminished as to be insignificant in Syria. The mission has been accomplished."

That was not the goal. The goal was and is to control through proxies land for oil and oil pipelines, to do this the US armed jihadist groups in order to make Syria a failed state and bleed Russia. Same as in Afghanistan. I have sympathy for the Kurds but they sure made the wrong choice when they allied with the US.

As for Turkey, it knows the Kurds are not a threat, it is using the Kurds as a false flag in order to consolidate Erdogans dictatorial powers and expand its territory. It would be satisfying to see the US corporate mercenary military fight Erdogans' jihadis troops, but I suspect they are putting on a show to obfuscate their real motives.

WTFUD Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:17 Permalink

Vichy DC on behalf of Israel has every right to chose the leadership in ALL countries. Amen, 3 Hail Mary's and a rusty pike up your arse.

oncemore1 Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:23 Permalink

Author omited by all means to spell out the word ZIONIST.

Jewish influence on us policy is the only reason, why is USA in Syria.

Second point:

The goal of US has been a regime change. IS came to Syria in significant quantities AFTER the screw-up with the color revolution against Assad.

Jung Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:26 Permalink

"A future alliance with the Syrian government is an alternative that would push the Kurds into the peace process. It would boost Syria’s chances of remaining an undivided state. Moscow could act as a mediator between Damascus, the Kurds, and Ankara. After all, Moscow is one of few capitals where the Syrian Kurds maintain a representative office.'

That would be sensible and let's not bother about the credibility of the US in the ME: there is none anyway and digging deeper into that hole is not going to help. The US is breaking laws and sometimes it works in its favour to actually appreciate a few laws. 

RTP Wed, 02/07/2018 - 04:32 Permalink

Make America great again without the evil help of the chosen people. Stop printing Dollar to bolster the greater Israel project.....which will bring only misery to the rest of the world!