Yuan 'Death Crosses' As Default Wave Forces Chinese Banks To Raise Capital

According to survey data by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, stretching back to 2009, investors have never been so bearish of Asian bonds in history.

Investors see China's liquidity tightening...

As the PBOC cracks down on the leverage in the shadow banking system...

And domestic bond defaults surging, sparking major fund outflows that are weighing on the offshore yuan.

China corporate-bond defaults is about 22.2 billion yuan so far this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. These includes five private and 15 public offerings.

And as 'Investing In Chinese Stocks' blog details, the China Banking Industry Association put out a report highlighting capital adequacy risk in urban commercial and listed banks. There is no problem at the moment, but the trends in regulations, NPLs, deposits, financial disintermediation and Internet competition are all moving in the wrong direction.

21st Century: “破净”、资产回表、股权管理压力齐下 银行业资本补充时间窗口不佳困境待解

Although the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks reached a stage high of 13.65% at the end of 2017, the overall capital adequacy level of the industry was higher. However, since 2018, more and more new regulatory regulations have linked the upper limit of business scale to net capital/net assets, which actually increased the capital requirements of banking institutions at a certain scale. In addition, the new regulations for asset management have officially landed, with stocks. Non-standard entry will also bring additional capital consumption.

There are serious shortages of banks “other Tier 1 capital”

The "Report" pointed out that state-owned large banks are more advanced in capital adequacy. The capital adequacy level of rural commercial banks is middle, while the capital adequacy level of city commercial banks and listed banks is relatively low.

“The capital management of listed banks generally has problems such as the continuous decline of the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, the unreasonable capital structure, and the single capital replenishment model.” The “Report” pointed out that many banks issue or plan to issue exogenous capital replenishment tools. Preferred stocks and tier 2 capital bonds have the highest frequency, followed by convertible bonds, and are still dominated by traditional tools. In 2017, 41 listed banks of A-shares and H-shares issued a total of about 169.921 billion yuan of preferred stock, 232 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds, a total of 40 billion yuan of convertible bonds, and 18.1 billion yuan of non-public offerings.

As of the end of May 2018, eight A-share banks have announced the issuance of convertible bonds.

But who wants to buy a secondary offering when they can buy the bank assets at a 60 percent discount in the market?

Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, pointed out that banks are facing a capital supplement dilemma.

  • First, due to the strengthening of supervision, the business returns to the table. It is a challenge to the bank's capital to withstand the off-balance sheet business.

  • Second, at the beginning of the year, we began to strengthen equity management. Some over-equity shares that do not meet regulatory requirements need to be phased out. It is also difficult to find suitable counterparty counterparties.

  • Third, the valuation of the banking industry is basically at a historically low level, which is extremely unfavorable for bank capital replenishment. "The listed company's P/B ratio has fallen to 0.6. If you do financial investment in the secondary market, it is cheaper to buy bank stocks than to increase."

As of the end of 2017, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio of China's commercial banks were 10.75%, 11.35% and 13.65%, respectively, which was 2-3 percentage points higher than the regulatory standards. Although the overall capital adequacy level of commercial banks is higher than the regulatory indicators, there is a structural imbalance. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and the tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of some small and medium-sized banks are consistent or almost identical, indicating that their “other tier 1 capital” is seriously insufficient. The Report also suggests that it is necessary for regulators to further introduce more innovative capital instruments that complement “other Tier 1 capital”. In addition, support banks to enter the broader domestic and foreign capital markets, such as supporting Chinese banks to explore international capitals such as London, Singapore, Dubai and other countries to issue RMB-denominated overseas preferred stocks, Islamic bonds and other capital replenishment tools. Commercial banks should also pay attention to capital management.

NPLs remain very low (officially).

As of the end of 2017, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 1.71 trillion yuan, and the non-performing ratio was 1.74%. It was stable at this level for five consecutive quarters, but it still needs to focus on the risk exposure of some regions and industries. The report believes that the banks in 2018 Industry credit risk management still faces many challenges, but the quality of commercial banks' assets is expected to continue to maintain a stable and good trend.

In terms of its ability to withstand risks, the balance of loan losses for commercial banks at the end of 2017 was 3,094.4 billion yuan, and the provision coverage ratio was 181.42%, an increase of 5.02 percentage points from the end of 2016. The overall risk-rewarding capacity was enhanced.

"For some time to come, the risk challenge is still very serious for the banking industry. We estimate that the NPL ratio will continue to rise slightly in 2018." Zeng Gang pointed out. The current supervision and intensified assessment, the tightening of the financing environment has led to an increase in liquidity risk, and this year's physical financing difficulties are more severe. In addition, the promotion of structural reforms on the supply side, the rise in environmental protection costs, and even the current trade frictions will have a significant impact on the impact of the enterprise.

Deposits are growing, but remain a concern. Savers are shifting their money into demand deposits:

In 2017, the total debt growth rate of commercial banks was only 8.4%, which was nearly half of the growth rate of 16% in the same period of 2016.

Affected by the strengthening of supervision, the bank's non-deposit liability business has adjusted significantly. At the end of 2017, 26 listed banks and other financial institutions deposited a total of 1,366.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.68%, a sharp drop. The deposit business is under increasing pressure. As of the end of December 2017, the balance of RMB deposits of financial institutions was 167.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.65% over the beginning of the year. Among them, household deposits accounted for 39%, non-financial companies accounted for 34.2%, government deposits 18.3%, and non-bank financial institutions 8.5%.

The trend of “demand” deposits is also obvious.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out in the report that the pressure on deposit business still exists in 2018. The active fiscal policy superimposed and regulated fiscal deposits. The residents added leverage for two consecutive years, which will give banks financial deposits, social deposits, and residents. Savings deposits put a lot of pressure on them. In addition, the slowdown in bank asset expansion will also constrain the ability to create deposit, deepening financial disintermediation, and permeating Internet finance are all increasing pressure. Commercial banks should actively increase the diversification of funding sources.

And nowhere is this crisis more evident than in Asia’s dollar bond market, which, as Bloomberg reports, has been in turmoil since the beginning of the year as oversupply caused indigestion amid rising yields, and Chinese deleveraging efforts curbed note investments. Dollar corporate bonds in the region lost 2.4 percent in the first half, the worst start to the year since 2013. Chinese junk bonds, the biggest component of Asian high yield, surpassed 10.5 percent on Friday for the first time since 2015.


Few expect a rebound anytime soon. With summer, Bloomberg notes that market moves are being amplified by lower liquidity. Bank traders are also less willing to bid for securities because of concerns that they will be left with losses shortly after buying the notes.

"In this kind of year where we have a credit bear market, it’s typical for investors to position defensively,” said Antonio Cailao, director of Asian credit trading at ING Bank NV.

That means investors will gravitate toward debt with low volatility and low duration, while avoiding and reducing exposure to high yield, he said.

And the bad news continues for China’s yuan as it tumbled the most since January 2016 and in the process triggering a bearish technical pattern known as a “death cross.”

The currency’s 50-day moving average has now broken through its 200-day counterpart for the first time since its shocking currency devaluation three years ago. (to clarify for those struggling with the two-sided nature of FX pairs - what is a golden cross for the USD relative to the Yuan is a death cross for the yuan relative to the USD)

China can allow the yuan to weaken a bit further, but at some point it will step in with support, as too much weakness would be counterproductive, according to David Lebovitz, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York.

Comments

booboo Thu, 07/12/2018 - 21:51 Permalink

Buying bonds on Chinese banks, and when they give you the finger at the end...well lets just say these are not the Greeks. What are you going to do? Get a court in New York to give you a court order to seize some contaminated garbage scow in Poontang Province?

Albertarocks Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:02 Permalink

"According to survey data by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, stretching back to 2009, investors have never been so bearish of Asian bonds in history."

---------------

A survey of investors by Merrill Lynch is of no interest.  All that matters is what Dennis Gartman has to say about it.

JibjeResearch Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:06 Permalink

Some of you guys are geniuses!

1.China wants to win the trade, regardless what the tariffs are, by devaluing the Yuan.

2.China/Asia have high return to hold the USD oversea; thus, creating businesses there. 

China is doing it on purpose!

America is slow and reactive to business activities.  We should be "active" in creating business activities. 

3.The PetroYuan will move forward to weaken the PetroUSD.

All of these three things support China at the expense of the USA.

WorkingClassMan JibjeResearch Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:16 Permalink

Things to consider; it's scary to think, but they are long-term strategists.  You did your research, Jibje!

 

Perhaps they are becoming "victims of their own success?"  Maybe their people need the Yuan to stay relatively stable too?  The central planners throughout history never have a strong economy long term, these chicom scum are no different.

In reply to by JibjeResearch

JibjeResearch WorkingClassMan Thu, 07/12/2018 - 23:29 Permalink

China will be successful.  They will become like the USA if they continue to dominate the globe.  However, it will take time for China to over spend on stupid stuffs like DoD and Social benefit.  If China refrains from overspending, it might not end up like the USA.

There is a gambit: Technology.

If AIs, Robots, and blockchain take over the world, people will have to be on basic income; thus, it doesn't matter if China is on the gold or fiat standard.

Anyway... just get rich however you can.  Everything else doesn't matter... :)

The rich have a chance to become a cyborg and live on, while the poor don't have that chance.

 

 

In reply to by WorkingClassMan

MuffDiver69 Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:26 Permalink

To think how little we have actually done so far and I mean little...The 10% tariff proposed is nothing and should have been higher and years before, but it’s really nothing like a 40% tariff China put on those BMW SUV from South Carolina...We haven’t even started yet and the reactions being so oversized in their Fake markets...like everyone knew it was a House of cards...lulz...

Chief Joesph Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:32 Permalink

What Merrill Lynch has put out is total crap.  The yuan is precisely where it was 8 years ago.  The yuan has been within a range of 6.14 to 6.92 since that time.  What Merrill Lynch is using in capital comparisons is the dollar, which has inflated badly over the past year.  Wish Merrill Lynch would hire real statisticians, rather than these fakes with crystal balls, who never been to China to know what their markets are all about.  Seen too much of this nonsense coming from Merrill Lynch before.  

Yen Cross Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:32 Permalink

  That move in the Nasfarce during the N.Y. session was "flying sharks" idiotic.

  Even more retarded was that move in CHF vs eur& usd after the "rumors" that the ECB might raise rates a whopping 10 basis points in a year. LMFAO!

  German macro continues to deteriorate, and The PIIGS are banking nightmares.

 The SNB hedge fund is swamp deep in U.S. equities. What happens when the U.S. equity markets tank, and they have to unwind all their long $usd exposure?

 At the very least they'll buy euros, which will pressure the $usd and that absurd bid in usd/chf.

 The yen and chf are also risk off -currencies. Those bank numbers in the morning are going to be interesting, and OPEX is next week.

 * Here's the overlay. The eur/chf is in candles.

 

Let it Go Thu, 07/12/2018 - 22:42 Permalink

Over recent years Chinese money and wealth flowing across porous borders can be seen in soaring house prices in Vancouver and most of Australia, however, the subject we should focus on at this time has to do with recent data from China indicating a broad slowdown in activity.

Data recently released points to the slowest investment growth in over 22 years which is a clear indication that regulatory crackdowns in the banking sector are starting to filter through to the broader economy. More on this subject in the article below.

 http://China Data Indicates Broad Slowing Of Economy.html

JibjeResearch alter_ Thu, 07/12/2018 - 23:38 Permalink

China can't be taken down without damaging the USA because the ratio Yuan/USD and the happy printing Federal Reserve.

The 6/1 Yuan/USD and printing Fed mandate China trade surplus.  This can't be changed.

 

If you want to prove it, as the Fed to stop printing, and get the USD/Yuan to be 6/1 and you will see a USA trade surplus.

In reply to by alter_

ilovetexas Thu, 07/12/2018 - 23:10 Permalink

I only see some are selling yuan and some are buying yuan. Death cross? I wonder how many people actually care. It's just a very unreliable tech analysis.

Yen Cross Fri, 07/13/2018 - 01:04 Permalink

  I'm going to pick up some some #NAS100_U8 puts. [buying puts]

  I see exactly where this shit show is headed, and the R/R is worth it, IMHO.

DaveClark5 Fri, 07/13/2018 - 05:01 Permalink

Pulling millions of people off the land where at least they could feed themselves might backfire when 500 million city dwellers can't buy food.  

Money_for_Nothing Fri, 07/13/2018 - 08:57 Permalink

Anyone who can't get their money out of China is screwed. That money doesn't exist and has been replaced with Communist Party script. The Yuan isn't linked to $USD anymore. That fact is a open State Secret. ie Everyone knows but have to pretend otherwise or be punished.