Tesla Bull vs. Bear Debate Podcast

Today's podcast was a structured debate between Tesla bull Galileo Russell from HyperChange TV - who famously got to appear on the company's conference call last quarter - and Montana Skeptic, a Tesla short seller who has been publicly critical of the company and who has appeared on my podcast in the past.

 

The debate was a structured format, with each participant getting the exact same time to speak and I did my best to moderate it in an objective fashion where I was not participating. Participants both agreed to the format ahead of time and each had a chance to make an opening statement and then address, and rebut, on three topics dealing with Tesla (one selected by each participant and one selected by me). From there, participants made their closing statements. 

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Disclosures: QTR owns TSLA put options, Montana Skeptic is short TSLA, Galileo Russell is long TSLA

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Comments

TacticalTrading Tue, 07/17/2018 - 16:02 Permalink

There's an M3 configuration that can be delivered in 1 Month

Model S delivery time is "Late August" 

The M3 is brand new, and demand is supposed to be insatiable, especially with those 400k reservations.

So despite the huge backlog, and all that demand, I could, possibly, have an M3 Delivered in less time than a Model S.

Call me stupid of you like, but I'm having a tough time figuring out how such a development should be considered bullish. 
Oh yea, The Model 3 Tracker says production is back down to 3,500 per week.

If they could sustain 5,000 per week, then maybe I could get one delivered in 2 - 3 weeks.   
Trick question: Would that be bullish or bearish? 

 

Justapleb Tue, 07/17/2018 - 16:39 Permalink

The fanboy's Valley Girl "uptalk" was extremely annoying.   He did admit he has invested in Musk, not the company, so there you have it: cult of personality.

Montana Skeptic went through the staggering sea of red ink in the quarterlies.  The death sentence for Tesla is that the Model 3 is losing money, not making money.   As production ramped up to the promised 5,000 per week, losses accellerated.   

Fanboy acknowledged Musk is acting increasingly unhinged.   It seems obvious to me that Musk understands the Model 3 is not profitable to build, and loses the least money when it is the luxury end, not the mass consumer end model.   So his attention has turned to rescuing boys in caves, providing water to every home in Flint, and burning like a meteor as it heads to earth.  

The entire point of Tesla's Model 3 gambit was a $35,000 car.   Look you morons:  it is the $35K price that makes it a mass consumer market car.   So don't come back with a $70K unit, lose record amounts producing it, and then tell us you are going to produce $35K cars with no subsidy at a profit.   

 

 

Meyer Blinder Tue, 07/17/2018 - 17:16 Permalink

2018

  • Kia to start production of the Stonic EV, with a range of 186 miles.
  • Jaguar to start production of the I-PACE, with a range of 240 miles.
  • Kia to start production of the Niro EV, with a range of 236 miles.

2019

  • Ford to begin selling the Model E, with a range of 200 miles.
  • Mini to release the E
  • Volvo to start producing the XC40, with a range of 220 miles.
  • Lucid to begin producing the Air, with a range of 240 miles.
  • Skoda to start production of the Citigo E, with a range of 186 miles.
  • Porsche to begin selling the Taycan, with a range of 260 miles.
  • From 2019 Volvo will offer electrified versions (hybrid and full) of all new cars (src).
  • China requires 10% of all vehicles sales to be full electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell by 2019.

2020

  • Audi to start production of the A9 e-tron, with a range of 250 miles.
  • Skoda to begin selling the Vision E, with a range of 260 miles.
  • BMW to manufacture the i4, with a range of 365 miles.
  • BMW to manufacture the iX3, with a range of 250 miles.
  • Honda to begin producing the Fit EV, with a range of 186 miles.
  • Tesla aim to have 1 million vehicles on the road by 2020.
  • Hyundai Group intend to introduce up to 31 'eco-friendly' models (across both the Kia and Hyundaibrands). This includes hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell vehicles (src).
  • China requires 12% of all vehicles sales to be zero-emission by 2020.
  • Dyson intend to create a brand new EV - in production by 2020 (src).
  • Ford is investing $11 billion into EV development aiming for 16 full EVs and 24 hybrids or plug-in hybrids by 2020.

2021

  • BMW to start production of the iNEXT, with a range of 365 miles.
  • Mazda and Toyota building new EV assembly plant (starting in 2021 producing 300,000 EVs per year - src).

2022

  • The RenaultNissan and Mitsubishi Motors Alliance will manufacture 12 new full-EVs by 2022. The alliance allows each brand to share power trains and other technology (source).
  • Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler intend to launch 10 new electric vehicle models by 2022 (src).
  • By 2022, Jeep aim to have ten plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and four battery EVs (BEVs) available.