Brazil and Germany See Auto Numbers Plunge, Following Awful September in U.S.

Following horrific numbers out of the United States, both Germany and Brazil have posted, or are expected to post, extremely weak automobile production and sales numbers for the month of September.

A research report from JP Morgan noted that car production in Germany likely remained weak in September, with the prospects of a recovery being delayed until "at least October". JP Morgan cites German Automobile Association (VDA) car production data that counts the number of cars rolling out of factories in Germany, rather than measuring production volumes for sales. The numbers are not seasonally or calendar-adjusted. 

The VDA data had already shown a nearly 20% month over month drop in July. Germany is awaiting a factory sales report on Friday that should provide more insight into the country's production and sales for September.

Not to be outdone by the United States or Germany, Brazil also posted plunging numbers for September. Auto production in the country was down 23.5% in September, month over month, according to Reuters data. Sales were down 14.2% over the same period, according to the National Automakers Association. Brazil has traditionally been one of the world's five largest auto markets until the country's recent economic downturn. Companies like General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all have major operational facilities in Brazil.

Just yesterday, we reported  the atrocious numbers for September that came out of the United States. 

Results from Ford, Honda, Nissan, Toyota and Fiat all tell the story of an industry that had a terrible month, with few silver linings. Three of these names posted double digit percentage declines in YOY sales and three of them missed analyst estimates.

  • Ford posted an 11% drop, missing analyst estimates of 9.1%. The F-Series pickup line ended a 16-month streak of sales gains. Mustang sales were down 1.3%. 
  • Nissan posted a 12.2% drop in September. Nissan and Infiniti brand car sales fell by 36%, including a 28% drop for the Altima sedan as the company prepared to start selling an all-new version this week.
  • Toyota sales were down 10.4%, far below estimates of 6.7% for the month. Combined sales for Toyota and Lexus brand cars fell 25.3%. 
  • Fiat posted the only true "beat", as sales rose 15% versus analyst estimates of 8%. However, the Chrysler brand fell 7% to 14,683 vehicles and the Fiat brand fell 46% to 1,185 vehicles. The deficit was made up on Jeep sales, which were up 14%, as well as sales of Ram pickups and minivans.
  • Volkswagen of America car sales were down 4.8%
  • GM third quarter total sales were down 11%. The company stopped reporting monthly numbers earlier this year, with many suspecting that weakness in the production pipeline is responsible; they were right. 

As we had previously predictedthe lack of incentive outlays seemed to be the primary driver for the poor numbers