November PMIs "Raise Warning Flags" About Slowing US Growth

After Germany, France, and Eurozone PMIs (47-month low) gravely disappointed, Markit's US Manufacturing and Services PMI also printed below expectations.

After a brief rebound in October, US PMIs are both contracting back to 'hard' data's reality...

This reversed the bounce in US Composite PMI also

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

The November survey does raise some warning flags to suggest growth could slow in coming months.

In particular, growth of hiring has waned as companies grew somewhat less optimistic about the outlook.

Goods exports also appear to also be coming under increasing pressure, often linked to trade wars having dampened demand. However, it should also be remembered that some pull back in growth was to be expected after October’s numbers were boosted by a post-hurricane rebound, especially given the historically high levels of production, order books and employment.

However, Williamson concludes:

“Solid flash PMI numbers for November add to evidence that the US is enjoying sustained robust economic growth in the fourth quarter. The surveys are broadly consistent with the economy growing at an annualised rate of 2.5%, building further on the country’s best growth spell since 2014 seen in the second and third quarters.

“With growth remaining reassuringly robust and price pressures elevated, policymakers will be encouraged that the economy has so far withstood both the headwinds of trade war worries and the steady progress made to date towards normalising interest rates.”

And finally, while Eurozone PMIs at 47-month lows and China's slump dominates but the US rebound appears to be over...

Global synchronized recovery?