Chicago PMI Prints Above Highest Estimate, Rejects Richmond Fed Collapse

Just days after a weak NY Fed print and a dramatic plunge in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index sparked concerns that the next US recession may be just around the corner, yesterday's initial claims which came in surprisingly strong eased fears; and now, the just published December Chicago PMI index also put the Richmond Fed collapse on the backburner, with a number that was just shy of all time highs, as the index dipped modestly from 66.4 to 65.4, far above the consensus estimate of 60.3 (also above the highest analyst estimate of 65) and not too far off the all time high of 68.0 printed in December 2017.

Looking at the internals, we find that the number of components rising vs last month was three.

  • Business barometer rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

Will January resume the uptrend in this traditionally optimistic survey, or will a delayed reflection of reality drag it down? Find out in 30 days.