Bonds, Bitcoin, Tech Stocks, & Dollar Jump As US Macro Data Dumps Ahead Of Fed

The Fed better deliver...

Or else...

 

After some early gains, China ended mixed with big caps positive and small caps/tech negative...

 

European markets were also very mixed with France leading and Spain lagging...

 

Very mixed day for US equities with Small Caps leading (despite dismal domestic data) along with Nasdaq (hovering at its 50DMA), Trannies lagging badly (worst day since May), and S&P and Dow in the middle with modest gains...

NOTE - after Europe closed, US markets went very quiet, then ended ugly (and remember this is a Fed week - pre-Fed drift - and a quad-witch)

 

Nasdaq was glued to its 50DMA...until the last few minutes then it lost it...

 

Ugly day for US data as hope tumbles once again...

 

Another day, another short-squeeze, erases Friday's losses...

 

Tesla is testing significant technical levels (7 month downtrend and 50DMA)...

 

Defensive stocks were aggressively bid after 130pmET...

 

Bond vol continues to dwarf equity and FX vol...

 

Treasury yields were mixed with the long-end outperforming...

 

Inflation Breakevens are collapsing...

 

The Dollar rallied - despite weak data suggesting a dovish Fed - pushing up to levels from right before the payrolls plunge...

 

Cable slipped lower as BoJo seems destined to become PM and a no-deal Brexit looms...

NOTE - Cable is getting very close to a key support level - we have closed lower on only one day since April 2017

 

Yuan continues to be well managed in an extremely tight range...

Despite major funding issues...

As Bloomberg's Claire Che and Heng Xie reports, trading volume in China’s 14-day repurchase agreements hit a record of more than 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) Monday as non-banking institutions raced to borrow in time to cover quarter-end cash requirements. A funding squeeze has forced such institutions to seek funding in Shanghai’s exchange market, where rates are lower than the interbank market, said Yifeng Wang, chief analyst of banking at Everbright Securities. The surge comes as shockwaves from last month’s government takeover of Baoshang Bank Co. ripple through China’s markets, with borrowing costs surging for brokerages and smaller banks.

 

Cryptos are all higher over the weekend with Bitcoin leading the way...

 

With Bitcoin up notably, pushing above $9400 - the highest since May 2018... (up 7 of the last 8 days)

 

Copper rallied on the day as crude crumbled, PMs were modestly lower as the dollar gained...

 

WTI was weaker again as OPEC meeting dates remain in flux...tumbling into its close back to a $51 handle and one week lows...

 

Gold was modestly lower on the day having tested (and failed again) at the $1350 level last week...

 

Finally, we note that - after this morning's record crash in Empire Manufacturing - all six sub-sectors of the US economic data surprise index are now in the red...

And, as a reminder, businesses have had a sluggish start to 2019. Corporate profits declined for the second consecutive quarter, the largest drop since the end of 2015.

While the market sis less confident of a rate-cut this week (%), it is practically convinced The Fed will cut in July... as sure of that as it was sure that the July meeting would prompt a rate-hike back in November...

Because all that matters is not fun-durr-mentals...