Startling Tory Poll And Leadership Challenge Shrinkage... And Then There Was 4

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A You-Gov Poll shows some shocking preferences. In the non-news of the day, the Tory leadership challenge is down to 4.

Committed to Brexit

YouGov Poll shows the Tory party wants Brexit even if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK.

The only scenario the party fears is Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. However, nearly four in ten (39%) are so committed to Brexit that they would want to see it brought about even if it brought their party’s nemesis came to power.

The next two slides explain the first.

Delivering Brexit

Real Threat

Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It)

The YouGov poll released today supports my call yesterday: Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It)

Another One Bites the Dust - Great-Remain-er-Hope Rory Stewart Knocked Out

The leadership race will narrow to two candidates today: Johnson vs Gove or Hunt. It won't matter. Johnson will win.

The MP process of narrowing down to the final two candidates will be over tomorrow. Boris Johnson will be one, the other is unknown, but it's between Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt.

The Guardian Live blog discussed Dark Arts.

Rory Stewart’s bandwagon has been exposed as a lot less sturdy than it looked yesterday. Maybe his performance in the debate did not help (he admitted himself he was lacklustre), maybe the copy-and-paste text messages sent to MPs did not help, but there is also speculation that his total yesterday was inflated by some dark arts Johnson operation intended to push Dominic Raab out of the race.

That's an interesting idea as Johnson is in a position to decide whom he wants to run against. But again, it will not matter.

Boris Johnson will be the UK's next Prime Minister

What Does Johnson Want?

That is the question I asked previously and there still is no guaranteed answer.

Four Possibilities

  1. If Johnson's intent is to deliver a hard-Brexit while avoiding a motion of no-confidence, he succeeded.

  2. If Johnson's intent is to deliver a repackaged Theresa May deal, he succeeded.

  3. If Johnson's intent is genuinely to get the EU to negotiate something beyond May's deal, willing to walk away if he doesn't, he succeeded

  4. If Johnson genuinely doesn't know, he successfully bought himself time.

My Vote - Door Three

My votes, in order, are 3, 4, and tossup.

I might be wrong, but I am going by what Johnson says even though he has not been consistent.

Moreover, the polls are clear. The party wants Brexit and wants it on Oct 31.

Theresa's May's deal, however rehashed, is simply not Brexit.

Managed WTO Deal

It is in the EU's best interest as well as the UK's best interest for a Managed WTO Deal to happen, if that is what Johnson wants (and that is what he should want).

By managed deal, I mean a WTO Brexit with the EU agreeing to some temporary backstop measures or "unicorn" technical solutions to smooth things out in return for Johnson agreeing to pay the Brexit breakup fee and agreeing to legal status for EU citizens living in the UK.

I am taking Johnson at his word, an admittedly risky stance for any politician, but it is also what the Tory membership indicates that it wants.

Either way, the leadership challenge is over. Johnson is in the driver's seat.